Middle East must prioritize diplomacy over conflict
The Middle East stands at a crossroads as tensions between Iran and Israel escalate, marked by the recent Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran's retaliatory ballistic missile barrages. This exchange signaled more than a military skirmish; it heralds a transformative phase in regional geopolitics, challenging the balance of power and raising urgent questions about stability. This article explores the conflict's dynamics, its regional and global implications, and proposes a path toward diplomacy and coexistence, drawing on historical insights and balanced perspectives.
The conflict's latest chapter began with Israel's targeted strike on Iran's Fordow nuclear facility, a move that signaled a bold escalation in its strategy against Iran's nuclear ambitions. Iran's vast geography allows it to disperse strategic assets, complicating defense but enabling resilience. Israel, conversely, benefits from compact, fortified defenses but faces vulnerabilities due to its concentrated infrastructure. Iran's missile response showcased its capacity to project power, underscoring a rebalanced military equation.
Such tit-for-tat attacks risks spiraling into broader conflict, with significant human and economic costs. Israel's economy, for instance, faces daily losses estimated at half a billion dollars during intense operations. While both sides demonstrate military prowess, escalation threatens regional stability, underscoring the need for de-escalation to prevent further devastation.
The 12-day conflict exposed strategic disarray in Israel and the US. In Israel, public support for the military action against Iran was strong, with 82 percent of its Jewish citizens backing the operations, according to polls. Yet, 70 percent of respondents, including 88 percent of Palestinian citizens, expressed concern over the war's economic and social toll, reflecting a nuanced public sentiment.
In the US, political divisions complicated the response. A CNN poll indicated 56 percent of Americans opposed its strikes on Iran, with 60 percent fearing heightened threats to US security. Democrats (88 percent) and independents (60 percent) largely opposed military action, while Republicans (82 percent) generally supported it. This lack of consensus weakens coordinated policy, amplifying regional uncertainty.
Escalation threatens regional stability, underscoring the need for de-escalation to prevent further devastation
Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed
Saudi Arabia offers a counterpoint, advocating for stability through diplomacy. Recognizing that military solutions, such as destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities, could ignite further chaos, the Kingdom prioritizes regional alliances and dialogue. This approach contrasts with Israel's reliance on force under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose strategy intertwines national security with political survival amid domestic challenges.
George Modelski's long cycle theory provides context, framing global leadership as cyclical, with hegemonic powers rising and declining over roughly 100-year periods. The US, the current hegemon arguably since 1914, faces declining influence as challengers emerge. This shift influences Middle Eastern dynamics, where Iran and Israel vie for regional dominance amid a multipolar global order.
Similarly, Ibn Khaldun's 14th-century cyclical theory likens states to living organisms, rising through triumph and declining through internal decay. In this conflict, Iran's resilience and Israel's vulnerabilities reflect these cycles, suggesting that internal cohesion and strategic foresight will determine their trajectories.
The strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities tested the regime's resilience. Bolstered by national identity and complex ethnic ties, Iran differs from Iraq's post-2003 collapse. The regime's durability suggests that external pressure alone is unlikely to topple it. Former CIA Director Leon Panetta has warned that targeting Iran risks a regional war, citing Iraq's invasion as a cautionary tale. Iran's response could ultimately escalate tensions, potentially unifying its factions around a nuclear agenda.
Matthew Bunn, a nuclear expert at Harvard, notes that while Iran's conventional military was weakened by the sustained Israeli strikes, the nuclear program's long-term setback is limited. Hard-liners advocating for a bomb may now gain influence, diminishing prospects for negotiated enrichment limits.
Samuel Huntington's clash of civilizations theory frames Western dominance as rooted in organized violence; a lens critics argue justifies aggression against the Islamic world. The West's history of colonial exploitation and modern conflicts, from Iraq to Palestine, fuels regional distrust. Media exposure of the limited Gaza aid and continued arms support for Israel despite global protests reinforces this narrative. While Western dissent exists, its impact remains limited, underscoring the challenge of altering entrenched policies.
Saudi Arabia's model of coexistence offers a blueprint, emphasizing cooperative frameworks to ease tensions
Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed
In the Arab world, a nihilistic outlook attributing setbacks to external conspiracies often overshadows internal governance failures. Overcoming this requires embracing justice and strategic management to build resilient societies.
The Middle East's future hinges on prioritizing diplomacy over conflict. Historical interventions, like those in Iraq and Afghanistan, demonstrate that military victories are fleeting and destabilizing. Saudi Arabia's model of coexistence offers a blueprint, emphasizing cooperative frameworks to ease tensions.
Addressing humanitarian crises, such as Gaza's plight, is critical to reducing regional friction. Israel must reassess its reliance on force, while Iran should engage in good-faith negotiations to reintegrate globally. A collective pause in hostilities on all fronts could pave the way for dialogue, fostering a new Middle Eastern order rooted in mutual respect.
The Arab world must counter defeatist narratives by focusing on internal strengths, justice, governance and resource security. As the adage warns, 'when nations change, guard your head.' Strategic caution, including securing food, water and energy, is essential amid transformative shifts.
The Iranian-Israeli conflict marks a pivotal moment for the Middle East, where competing visions of security and stability collide. While Israel and the US lean on military might, Saudi Arabia's diplomatic approach offers a viable alternative. History warns that wars complicate rather than resolve disputes. By embracing dialogue and addressing internal weaknesses, regional powers can forge a stable, cooperative future, break the cycle of conflict and build a new era of coexistence.
• Dr. Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed is an adjunct professor at the University of Arizona's College of Agriculture, Life and Environmental Sciences, in the Department of Biosystems Engineering. He is the author of 'Agricultural Development Strategies: The Saudi Experience.' X: @TurkiFRasheed
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