Succession plans for Iranian supreme leader hit top gear
Potential rival Hassan Khomeini could present more moderate face
DUBAI: The clock's ticking for senior clerics seeking a successor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A three-man committee from a top clerical body, appointed by Khamenei himself two years ago to identify his replacement, has accelerated its planning in recent days since Zionist entity attacked Iran and threatened to assassinate the veteran leader, five insiders with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters. Khamenei, 86, is being regularly briefed on the talks, according to the Iranian sources who requested anonymity to discuss highly sensitive matters. He has gone into hiding with his family and is being guarded by the Vali-ye Amr special forces unit of the Revolutionary Guards, a top security official said.
The ruling establishment will immediately seek to name a successor to Khamenei if he is killed, to signal stability and continuity, according to the sources who acknowledged that predicting Iran's subsequent political trajectory was difficult. A new leader will still be chosen for his devotion to the revolutionary precepts of the Islamic Republic's late founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, according to one insider, who is close to Khamenei's office and privy to succession discussions.
At the same time, the top echelon of power is also considering which candidate might present a more moderate face to ward off foreign attacks and internal revolts, the person said. Two frontrunners have emerged in the succession discussions, the five insiders said: Khamenei's 56-year-old son Mojtaba, long seen as a continuity choice, and a new contender, Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the father of the Islamic revolution.
Khomeini, a close ally of the reformist faction that favors the easing of social and political restrictions, nonetheless commands respect among senior clerics and the Revolutionary Guards because of his lineage, the sources added. 'I once again humbly express that this small and insignificant servant of the Iranian people stands ready to proudly be present on any front or scene you deem necessary,' the 53-year-old said in a public message of support to the supreme leader on Saturday, hours before the US bombed Iran's nuclear facilities.
Khomeini has come into the frame as a serious candidate this month amid the conflict with Zionist entity and America because he could represent a more conciliatory choice internationally and domestically than Mojtaba Khamenei, the five people said. By contrast, Khamenei hews closely to his father's hardline policies, according to the insiders who cautioned that nothing had been determined, candidates could change and the supreme leader would have the final say.
However, with the military conflict continuing, it remains unclear whether any new leader could be chosen easily or installed securely or if he could assume the level of authority enjoyed by Khamenei, they added. Zionist airstrikes have also killed several of Iran's top Revolutionary Guards commanders, potentially complicating a handover of power as the elite military force has long played a central role in enforcing the supreme leader's rule. Khamenei's office and the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body from which the succession committee was drawn, were not available to comment.
Trump: Khamenei is easy target
Planning for an eventual handover was already in the works because of Khamenei's age and the longstanding health concerns of a leader who has dominated all aspects of Iranian politics for decades, the sources said. The urgency of the task was underlined in September when Zionists killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, a close ally of Khamenei's, and the planning accelerated significantly this month following the attacks on nuclear sites, which were followed by the American attacks at the weekend. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' US President Trump warned on social media last week, calling for Tehran's unconditional surrender. 'He is an easy target.'
Khamenei hasn't publicly expressed any preference for his successor. The sources said he had repeatedly opposed the idea of his son taking over, in succession discussions in the past, concerned about any suggestion of Iran returning to the kind of hereditary rule that ended with the ousting of the shah in 1979. The role of Supreme Leader was created after the revolution and then enshrined in the constitution giving a top cleric ultimate authority in guiding the elected president and parliament. Officially, the leader is named by the Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 senior clerics who are chosen through a national election in which a hardline watchdog body aligned with Khamenei must approve all the candidates.
'Whether the Islamic Republic survives or not, it will be a very different one, because the context in which it has existed has fundamentally changed,' said London-based Iranian political analyst Hossein Rassam, adding that Hassan Khomeini could fit the bill for a leader to take Iran in a new direction. 'The regime has to opt for someone who'll facilitate slow transition.' Hassan Khomeini's close links to the reformist faction of Iranian politics, which pursued an ultimately unsuccessful policy of opening Iran to the outside world in the 1990s, saw hardline officials bar him from running as a member of senior clerical body the Assembly of Experts in 2016.
The succession planners are aware that Khomeini is likely to be more palatable to the Iranian population than a hardliner, the five insiders said. Last year he warned of a 'crisis of rising popular dissatisfaction' among Iranians due to poverty and deprivation. By contrast, Mojtaba Khamenei's views echo those of his father on every major topic from cracking down on opponents to taking a hardline with foreign foes, the sources said - qualities they saw as hazardous with Iran under attack.
A mid-ranking cleric who teaches theology at a religious seminary in the city Qom, the centre of Iranian religious life, Mojtaba has never held a formal position the Islamic Republic, though exercises influence behind the scenes as the gatekeeper to his father, according to Iran watchers. The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Mojtaba in 2019, saying he represented the Supreme Leader in 'an official capacity despite never being elected or appointed to a government position' aside from working his father's office.
Other candidates fall away
Several of the candidates long seen as possible successors to Khamenei have already died. Former presidents Hashemi Rafsanjani passed away in 2017, former judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi died of natural causes in 2018 and former President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in 2023. Another senior cleric Sadegh Amoli Larijani, has been sidelined.
Others, such as the Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, are still in contention but have fallen behind Mojtaba Khamenei and Hassan Khomeini, the five sources said. Beyond the most likely candidates, it's also possible that a less prominent cleric could be chosen as a pawn of Revolutionary Guards, said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think-tank. 'It is possible that they would put forward a candidate that no one has ever heard of and would not really hold the same levers of power that Ayatollah Khamenei has held now for more than 30 years,' he said.
The supreme leader's voice is powerful. After the death of the Islamic Republic's founder Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Khamenei was publicly hailed as his predecessor's choice. Although he had already served as president, Khamenei was only a mid-ranking cleric and was initially dismissed by influential clerics as weak and an unlikely successor to his charismatic predecessor. However, he steadily tightened his grip to become Iran's unquestioned decision-maker, relying on the Revolutionary Guards as he outmanoeuvred rivals and crushed bouts of popular unrest. — Reuters
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Arab Times
an hour ago
- Arab Times
Israel-Iran War A Wake-Up Call For Kuwait's Oil-Dependent Economy
KUWAIT CITY, June 24: The United States of America has entered the Israeli-Iranian war, raising tensions in the region, creating a state of ambiguity, and opening the door wide to new challenges for the global economy in general and the Kuwaiti economy in particular. Kuwaiti economists have stressed the need to learn economic lessons from the current war and work hard to diversify sources of income; so that the Kuwaiti economy does not remain vulnerable to the risks of geopolitical tensions, which could pose a challenge to an economy dependent on a single commodity -- oil -- taking into consideration the growing fear of seaports closure. In separate interviews with the newspaper, they warned that the continuation of the war for more than a month would negatively impact the economies of Kuwait and neighboring countries, primarily due to the decline in interregional trade and maritime shipping. They underscored the importance of expanding agriculture, livestock, and the food industry, as well as increasing storage of goods that could last for many years in preparation for any emergency. Economic expert and former Minister of State for Housing Affairs Yahya Al-Sumait asserted that the escalation of the war between Israel and Iran and the entry of the United States as a party to the confl ict will affect the national economy, especially since the country relies on imports and exports, not only of oil but of all other products. At the same time, he expects the situation to calm down by the beginning of next month, as the free world will not accept the continuation of the war and its disastrous repercussions for people and the global economy. Economic expert and head of the Accounting Department at Kuwait University Dr. Sadiq Al-Bassam pointed out that the only benefit to the national economy from the Iran-Israel war is the rise in the price of oil, which leads to increased State revenues. 'However, the negative repercussions affect many other areas, foremost of which is the possibility of higher commodity prices if the war is prolonged or the Strait of Hormuz is closed,' he disclosed. Al-Bassam emphasized the need to learn lessons from current events to diversify the country's resources, while expanding the strategic reserve for non-perishable goods to five years. He thinks six months is insufficient, especially since Kuwait is in a highly sensitive region. He also stressed the importance of expanding livestock, agriculture, and the food industry to prevent any crisis should the war continue. Abdullah Al-Gharib, advisor for international organizations affairs at the Kuwait Journalists Association, stated that the continuation of the war has negative repercussions for the national economy, including the suspension of Kuwaiti oil exports if vital ports through which tankers pass are closed. This is especially true given that Iran, amid this war, is still threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, he added. He warned that the closure of vital ports will affect the buying and selling of food products, because the continuation of the war for more than a month will affect food supplies, prompting food traders to raise prices. He said the situation could lead to a halt in flights, which will lead to numerous economic disasters, especially since commercial aviation tranIsrael-Iran War A Wake-Up Call For Kuwait's Oil-Dependent Economysports many daily food products to Kuwait. Economic expert Ahmed Al- Khashnam reiterated that the current war has negative and positive repercussions for the national economy. He explained that the continuation of the war will inevitably lead to an increase in oil prices to more than $100, which will naturally benefit the country's oil resources more than expected. 'However, the war could also negatively affect the economy if the Strait of Hormuz and other seaports are closed. This will be a greater disaster, as the Kuwaiti economy relies primarily on oil resources,' he asserted. He believes that the situation requires the formation of a crisis management entity to resolve all problems which arise suddenly, such as this war, and might continue for long periods and potentially exhaust the economies of the Gulf states. He said the current war is affecting the global economy as a whole, not just the oil-rich Gulf states; indicating that its negative effects include a decline in all types of investments, which will lead to a decline in the profits of commercial companies that rely primarily on imports and exports. 'Furthermore, the war will lead to the flight of foreign capital or a reduction in its income. The situation is not limited to the warring countries alone, as it extends to neighboring countries, leading to a decline in trade exchange and the volume of intra-trade. This will result in a decline in commercial activity, which will raise wheat prices, as it happened in the Russia-Ukraine war. I hope the Israeli- Iranian war will stop soon,' he added.
Arab Times
3 hours ago
- Arab Times
Iran launches attack on US base in Qatar
KUWAIT CITY, June 23: Iran said Monday night that it attacked American forces stationed at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base. The announcement was made on state television as martial music played. A caption on the screen called it 'a mighty and successful response by the armed forces of Iran to America's aggression.' The attack came shortly after Qatar closed its airspace as a precaution amid threats from Iran. Explosions boomed Monday night in Qatar, home to a major U.S. air base, shortly after its airspace was closed due to Iranian threats of retaliation after American forces pounded its nuclear sites. Witnesses said they saw what appeared to be missiles in the skies over the country. There was no immediate acknowledgment from Qatari authorities of an attack. Iran did not immediately acknowledge an attack. However, its President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on the social platform X just before the explosions: 'We neither initiated the war nor seeking it. But we will not leave invasion to the great Iran without answer.' Qatar closed its airspace amid Iranian threats to retaliate against the United States over its bombing of three Iranian nuclear sites early Sunday. Earlier in the day, Israel expanded its war against Iran to include targets associated with the country's struggling theocracy, striking the gate of a Tehran prison notorious for holding political activists and hitting the headquarters of the military force that suppressed recent protests. In the past, Iran has threatened American forces at Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts the forward headquarters of the U.S. military's Central Command. Qatar, across the Persian Gulf from Iran, maintains diplomatic relations with Iran and shares a massive offshore natural gas field with Tehran. Earlier in the day, plumes of thick smoke rose over Tehran, Israel was attacked with yet another barrage of Iranian missiles and drones. The persistent fire has become a reality for civilians in both countries since Israel started the war to target Tehran's rapidly advancing nuclear program. On the 11th day of the conflict, Israel said it attacked 'regime targets and government repression bodies in the heart of Tehran,' but Israeli officials insisted they did not seek the overthrow of Iran's government, their archenemy since the country's 1979 Islamic Revolution. The Israeli military warned Iranians that it would continue to attack military sites around Tehran over 'the coming days' as its focuses has shifted to symbolic targets as well. The military issued the warning on the social platform X, though Iranians are struggling to access the outside world as an internet shutdown has crippled the country. The latest strikes unfolded only hours after President Donald Trump openly raised the possibility himself after just a day earlier inserting America into the war with its unprecedented stealth-bomber strike on three Iranian nuclear sites. 'If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change???' he asked on his Truth Social website. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later described Trump as 'simply raising a question.' However, suggestions of overthrowing the Iranian government drew new anger from Tehran, which insists it will not negotiate at this time and is threatening to retaliate directly against either American troops or interests in a Mideast already inflamed by the stillraging Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. In the Tehran strikes, Israel blew open a gate at Evin prison. Iranian state television shared black-andwhite surveillance footage of the strike at the facility known for holding dual nationals and Westerners often used by Iran as bargaining chips in negotiations with the West. Evin also has specialized units for political prisoners run by the paramilitary, all-volunteer Revolutionary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The facility is the target of both U.S. and European Union sanctions. There were no immediate reports of casualties in Iran or significant damage, though the semiofficial Tasnim news agency said there had been a power cut reported outside of Tehran following the Israeli strikes. Iranian state television also aired footage it described as being shot inside Evin, with prisoners under control inside the facility. However, the Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran expressed worry about the condition of prisoners there. 'Many families of current detainees have expressed deep concern about the safety and condition of their loved ones held inside the prison,' it said. Meanwhile, Ambassador of the European Union to Kuwait Anne Koistinen affirmed her belief that diplomacy is the key to resolving conflicts, stressing that the European Union will continue to support all diplomatic efforts aimed at easing tensions and achieving a lasting solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. She also emphasized that this issue can only be resolved through a negotiated agreement. In an interview with the daily, Ambassador Koistinen said the European Union is closely following the developments in the region. She referred to a recent statement by the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas issued on behalf of all 27 member states of the European Union. The statement expressed the European Union's deep concern over the dangerous escalation following Israeli strikes on Iran, and Tehran's response. Ambassador Koistinen explained that the European Union is firmly committed to regional security and stability, and called on all parties to uphold international law, exercise maximum restraint, and avoid actions that could trigger serious consequences, such as the potential leakage of radioactive materials. The European Union unequivocally believes Iran must not be allowed to develop or possess a nuclear weapon, and is concerned about the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report, which led the IAEA Board of Governors to conclude that Iran is not complying with its legally binding nuclear safeguards obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Despite these concerns, the European Union believes lasting security can only be achieved through diplomacy, not military confrontation. Meanwhile, the French Embassy in Kuwait urged French citizens, who are currently in the region, to maintain a high level of vigilance and avoid demonstrations and gatherings. In a security alert posted on its X account Monday, the embassy pointed out the deteriorating security situation in the Middle East, stating: 'Depending on developments in the region, and due to the closure of airspace in a number of countries in the region; flight cancellations, delays or postponements may occur. It is advisable to contact the airline in advance to check the flight status and find alternatives if necessary.' It added that a guide is also available on the Kuwaiti Ministry of Interior website, containing useful information in the event of a crisis or emergency. It then called on French residents in Kuwait to register with the French Citizens Abroad Registry, and for those who have already registered, to update their contact information if necessary through the service-public. fr website, completing the 'address of residence abroad' field and writing the area code in the 'street' field. It also called for abstention from travel in the coming days to Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and the Palestinian territories, Lebanon and Syria; indicating that French citizens currently in transit in these countries should register on the 'Ariane Thread' platform of the French Foreign Ministry. It advised regular monitoring of developments by visiting the website of the French Embassy in Kuwait and reviewing official travel advice. In addition, Omani Ambassador to Kuwait Dr. Saleh Al-Kharousi announced that the Embassy of the Sultanate of Oman in the country continues to monitor the return of its citizens from the Islamic Republic of Iran through the borders of the State of Kuwait. In a press statement Monday, Al- Kharousi disclosed that the number of departing individuals exceeded 100 -- majority of whom are Omani citizens, and some are citizens of sisterly and friendly countries. He expressed his deep gratitude and appreciation to the ministries of Foreign Affairs and Interior and other concerned authorities in Kuwait for their efforts and assistance, which have had a significant impact on the speed and ease of the citizens' departure. By Fares Ghaleb Al-Seyassah/Arab Times Staff and Agencies
Arab Times
4 hours ago
- Arab Times
What To Know About Al Udeid Air Base, Targeted By Iran
WASHINGTON, June 24(AP): Iran retaliated Monday for the U.S. attacks on its nuclear sites by targeting Al Udeid Air Base, a sprawling desert facility in Qatar that serves as a major regional military hub for American forces. No American or Qatari personnel were harmed, the U.S. military's Central Command said, noting that the two forces worked together to defend the base. A Qatari military officer said one of 19 missiles fired by Iran was not intercepted and hit the base, but President Donald Trump said in a social media post that 'hardly any damage was done.'. As of this month, the U.S. military had about 40,000 service members in the Middle East, according to a U.S. official. Many of them are on ships at sea as part of a bolstering of forces as the conflict escalated between Israel and Iran, according to the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations research and policy center. Bases in the Middle East have been on heightened alert and taking additional security precautions in anticipation of potential strikes from Iran, while the Pentagon has shifted military aircraft and warships into and around the region during the conflict. The U.S. has military sites spread across the region, including in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the United Arab Emirates. Here's a look at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar: Al Udeid hosts thousands of service members The base hosts thousands of U.S. service members and served as a major staging ground for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. At the height of both, Al Udeid housed some 10,000 U.S. troops, and that number dropped to about 8,000 as of 2022. The forward headquarters of Central Command, it also was used in the fight against the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria. Al Udeid is built on a flat stretch of desert about 20 miles (30 kilometers) southwest of Qatar's capital, Doha. Over two decades, the gas-rich Gulf country has spent some $8 billion in developing the base, once considered so sensitive that American military officers would say only that it was somewhere 'in southwest Asia.' Trump has visited Al Udeid Trump visited the air base during a trip to the region last month. It was the first time a sitting U.S. president had traveled to the installation in more than 20 years. Al Udeid cleared its tarmacs Last week, ahead of the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Al Udeid saw many of the transport planes, fighter jets and drones typically on its tarmac dispersed. In a June 18 satellite photo taken by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by The Associated Press, the air base's tarmac had emptied. The U.S. military has not acknowledged the change, which came after ships off the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet base in Bahrain also had dispersed. That's typically a military strategy to ensure your fighting ships and planes aren't destroyed in case of an attack.
