Hurricane Erin strengthens into a Category 2 storm as it approaches the northeast Caribbean
The storm is expected to remain over open waters, although tropical storm watches were issued for Anguilla, Barbuda, St. Martin, St. Barts, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Maarten.
Heavy rains were forecast to start late Friday in Antigua and Barbuda, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and southern and eastern Puerto Rico. Up to 4 inches are expected, with isolated totals of up to 6 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The hurricane center also warned of dangerous swells but said the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the east coast of the United States 'appears to be gradually decreasing.'
The storm was located 250 miles northeast of Anguilla as of the hurricane center's 11 p.m. EDT advisory. It had maximum sustained wind speeds of 100 mph and was moving west north-west at 17 mph.
Hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry said Erin is forecast to eventually take a sharp turn northeast that would put it on a path between the U.S. and Bermuda.
'All of our best consensus aids show Erin turning safely east of the United States next week, but it'll be a much closer call for Bermuda, which could land on the stronger eastern side of Erin,' he said.
Erin is the Atlantic season's first hurricane. It is forecast to become a major Category 3 storm late this weekend and pass some 200 miles north of Puerto Rico.
The U.S. government has deployed more than 200 employees from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and other agencies to Puerto Rico as a precaution as forecasters issued a flood watch for the entire U.S. territory from late Friday into Monday.
Puerto Rico Housing Secretary Ciary Pérez Peña said 367 shelters have been inspected and could be opened if needed.
The U.S. Coast Guard said Friday that it closed six seaports in Puerto Rico and two in the U.S. Virgin Islands to all incoming vessels unless they had received prior authorization.
Meanwhile, officials in the Bahamas said they prepared some public shelters as a precaution as they urged people to track the hurricane.
'These storms are very volatile and can make sudden shifts in movement,' said Aarone Sargent, managing director for the Bahamas' disaster risk management authority.
Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to affect the U.S. East Coast next week, with waves reaching up to 15 feet (5 meters) along parts of the North Carolina coast that could cause beach erosion, according to Accuweather.
'Erin is forecast to explode into a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it moves across very warm waters in the open Atlantic. Water temperatures at the surface and hundreds of feet deep are several degrees higher than the historical average,' said Alex DaSilva, Accuweather's lead hurricane expert.
Erin is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
This year's season is once again expected to be unusually busy. The forecast calls for six to 10 hurricanes, with three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph.
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Yahoo
42 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane Erin to fluctuate in strength as dangers increase along US coast
Hurricane Erin is forecast by AccuWeather meteorologists to experience fluctuations in wind intensity while taking a curved path between the United States and Bermuda in the week ahead. As of Sunday midday, Erin's maximum sustained winds were 125 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane with the eye about 200 miles to the north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Erin was moving west-northwest at 13 mph. Erin has experienced a common hurricane phenomenon called an eyewall replacement, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. "This means that as the old eyewall expands outward, a new eyewall forms closer to the center," Buckingham explained. "Top winds often ease back during this cycle, but it is followed by another surge in wind intensity as the new eye completes organization." Feeder bands extending outward from the hurricane have been and will continue to produce torrential downpours, flash flooding and mudslides in Puerto Rico and some of the surrounding islands in the northern Caribbean with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 14 inches. Strong wind gusts in the feeder bands can trigger sporadic power outages. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the Caribbean is less than one. Erin has thus far been steered along by the large clockwise circulation around high pressure over the central Atlantic. As Erin moves along the backside of this high, it will turn more to the northwest and then to the north early this the app? Unlock AccuWeather Alerts™ with Premium+ Later this week, the jet stream should begin to grab hold of Erin and guide it northeastward. The timing of that steering breeze takeover is critical to the exact path Erin will take in terms of proximity to the U.S. coast. While the highly dangerous eyewall of the storm is most likely to remain at sea, the area size of Erin will increase over time. Combined with any shifts in track, this could bring tropical storm to hurricane conditions to parts of the U.S. Atlantic Coast, Bermuda and, later this week, Atlantic Canada. For example, should Erin's track shift westward by 100 miles or so, eastern North Carolina could experience tropical storm conditions. As of Sunday morning, tropical storm winds (39 mph or greater) extend outward from the center up to 205 miles. Hurricane winds (74 mph or greater) associated with the eyewall extend outward up to 25 miles. Erin's already large size and intensity are acting like a giant plunger on the sea surface. Large swells generated by the winds can reach 50 feet or more near the center and propagate outward. While the swells will lose some energy moving away from the center, as large swells approach coastal areas, waves in much of the surf zone along the U.S. Atlantic Coast will average 5-10 feet at peak this week. However, beaches that extend out into the ocean, such as in North Carolina's Outer Banks, eastern Long Island, New York, and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, can experience waves of 10-15 feet. The magnitude of the waves in the surf zone and offshore will depend on the track and intensity of Erin as it approaches and moves by offshore. Ocean-going vessel operators should be aware that wave heights can increase dramatically just a few miles offshore. Cruise and shipping interests may want to avoid Erin and the hurricane's massive seas. Rip currents, which are always present in the surf zone, will increase in strength and number from south to north along the U.S. Atlantic coast as the week progresses. The combination of pounding waves and strong rip currents will create dangerous conditions in the surf zone. Swimmers are urged to abide by local authorities, which may limit swimming or close some beaches that are not under lifeguard protection. Portions of the Outer Banks and the Virginia beaches will experience a storm surge up to several feet with wave action on top. This condition will lead to significant coastal flooding and beach erosion. Since North Carolina's Highway 12 is near sea level, significant overwash and closures are possible on the roadway beginning around midweek. Impacts in Bermuda, Atlantic Canada Since Erin's eye is forecast to pass well west of Bermuda, the islands will be spared a direct hit and the worst wind and rain conditions from the hurricane. However, dangerous seas and surf conditions are expected around the islands from Tuesday to Thursday. Based on the current track and anticipated size and strength of Erin, the islands could experience tropical storm conditions. Any eastward shift in Erin's track would bring more significant conditions to the islands. Beyond the Caribbean, the U.S. and Bermuda, it is possible that the closest landmass that Erin may approach is southeastern Newfoundland in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador. The projected timetable for the possible close encounter on Friday. During this time, some transformation to a non-tropical storm may be underway, which could cause the shield of rain and extent of strong winds to push outward from the center even more. Beyond Canada, the next land masses that Erin could affect are Iceland or the United Kingdom as a tropical wind and rainstorm later next weekend and beyond. Brief history of Erin Despite days of battling cool water and dry air earlier last week, Erin found its stride from Thursday to Saturday as it moved over much warmer water, surrounded itself with moisture and experienced low disruptive breezes (low wind shear). Erin experienced one of the most rapid intensification cycles on record late this past week, going from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just over a day--27 hours, 20 minutes to be exact. At 8 a.m. on Friday, Erin was a 70-mph tropical storm. By 11 a.m. on Friday, Erin's strength had edged to hurricane intensity at 75 mph. However, from 11 a.m. on Friday to 11 a.m. on Saturday, Erin increased to a 155-mph Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Just minutes later, as fresh data arrived from hurricane hunter aircraft, Erin became a 160-mph Category 5. This marks the fourth straight season with at least one Category 5 hurricane. Last year brought two Category 5 storms, Beryl and Milton. Beryl was the earliest Category 5 on record, dating back to July 1. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is still ahead--in September. Beyond Erin AccuWeather meteorologists continue to monitor the Atlantic for additional tropical troublemakers. Two areas associated with low pressure (tropical waves) moving west from Africa are being tracked. Both of these waves have a low risk of developing. However, as conditions in their path change, this risk could increase or decrease in the days ahead. The tropical wave train, or Cabo Verde season, named for a group of islands just off the African coast, represents the backbone of the Atlantic hurricane season. Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Newsweek
an hour ago
- Newsweek
New Disturbance in the Atlantic Tracking Behind Erin: What to Know
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a new disturbance in the Atlantic Sunday tracking behind Hurricane Erin. The new disturbance shows a 20 percent chance of forming within the next seven days, according to the NHC. It comes as the NHC continues to issue advisories for Erin, which quickly strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday before being downgraded to a Category 3. As of Sunday morning, Erin remained on the track west-northwest, producing gusty winds and heavy rains near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Newsweek has reached out to the NHC via email Sunday for more information. Why It Matters Erin rapidly intensified into a major hurricane, resulting in dangerous marine conditions and heavy rain across parts of the northeastern Caribbean. As the Atlantic Hurricane Season reaches its peak, typically from Mid-August to October, storms produced in this area have a higher likelihood of development. What To Know There are currently three listed systems in the Atlantic, a map from the NHC shows. These include Erin, Disturbance 1 and Disturbance 2. Disturbance 1 is an area of low pressure off the coast of North Carolina, which has only a 10 percent chance of development over the next seven days, according to the NHC Tropical Outlook. The system is expected to drift eastward as it produces showers and thunderstorms. Disturbance 2 is a tropical wave, located in the Central Tropical Atlantic near Cabo Verde, and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is moving in the same direction and similar path to Erin, heading westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 miles per hour. Erin is currently moving west-northwest at about 14 mph, with a minimum central pressure near 940 millibars and maximum sustained winds near 125 mph, according to the latest NHC advisory issued Sunday morning. Erin is expected to remain a large and powerful system capable of producing dangerous offshore conditions, prompting maritime warnings along the East Coast of the U.S. A new disturbance has formed in the Atlantic, according to a map from the National Hurricane Center on August 17. A new disturbance has formed in the Atlantic, according to a map from the National Hurricane Center on August 17. National Hurricane Center What People Are Saying The National Hurricane Center said in an advisory issued Sunday morning: "A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 percent." The NWS Miami wrote on social media: "Regardless of pre season forecasts or the final storm tally, it only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community. Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint." What Happens Next? Forecasters continue to monitor Erin's fluctuations and movements as it makes its way towards the East Coast. Many forecasters predict Erin's track to swing north and out to sea over the next few days. Disturbance 2 is still in the early stages and will continue to be tracked by NHC. While it carries low short-term probabilities for tropical cyclogenesis in the immediate 48–72 hour, the disturbance could strengthen as it moves into the central Atlantic, where warmer waters and reduced shear later in August could favor development, according to NHC.
San Francisco Chronicle
an hour ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Hurricane Erin weakens to Category 3 as forecasters wait for northward turn
Hurricane Erin weakened to a Category 3 hurricane Sunday as its outer bands continued to lash the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with heavy rains and tropical-storm force winds. While Erin's maximum winds diminished, the storm's overall size grew and forecasters issued tropical storm warnings for the Turks and Caicos Islands and a watch for the southeast Bahamas. The storm wasn't expected to directly impact the U.S. East Coast, but by doubling or tripling in size it could bring rip currents all along the Southeast coast. Gusty winds and flooding tides could wash out parts of the highway that connects the North Carolina Outer Banks by midweek, the National Weather Service said. Bermuda could have similar conditions as Erin is forecast to turn to the north and then northeast, forecasters said. Erin, the first Atlantic hurricane of 2025, reached Category 5 status Saturday with maximum winds of 160 mph (260 kph) before weakening. The storm's maximum sustained winds were 125 mph (205 kph) late Sunday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. The winds decreased as the storm went through internal changes. Erin is expected to remain powerful for the next several days, forecasters said. 'You're dealing with a major hurricane. The intensity is fluctuating. It's a dangerous hurricane in any event,' said Richard Pasch of the National Hurricane Center. Erin's center was about 170 miles (270 kilometers) north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico and 270 miles (435 kilometers) east of the Grand Turk Island, moving west-northwest at 14 mph (22 kph). The rain and winds from the outer bands of the storm left about 147,000 customers without power Sunday morning in Puerto Rico, according to Luma Energy, a private company that oversees the transmission and distribution of power on the island. The weather canceled more than 20 flights, officials said. Swells were also expected to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days, forecasters said. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, and in this case, within 24 hours, the hurricane center said. Heavy rain is still expected across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches (about 7.6 to 15 centimeters), with 8 inches (20 centimeters) in some isolated areas. The government of the Bahamas also issued a tropical storm watch for the Southeast Bahamas. Scientists have linked the rapid intensification of hurricanes in the Atlantic to climate change. Global warming is causing the atmosphere to hold more water vapor and is spiking ocean temperatures, and warmer waters give hurricanes fuel to unleash more rain and strengthen more quickly.
