
Advancing Australia's Trilateral Partnership With Two ASEAN Neighbors
In October, Timor-Leste is set to become the 11th member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the most consequential regional grouping to Australia's north. For the first time ever, Canberra will have two ASEAN neighbors. Within the bloc, Indonesia has been the biggest supporter of Timor-Leste's application to join ASEAN. Australia too has been an important supporter of Dili's desire to join the grouping.
Good relations with both Timor-Leste and Indonesia are both a strategic and diplomatic imperative for Australia. This is especially the case since regional cohesion falters under the weight of U.S.-China strategic competition and security challenges such as the Myanmar civil war and the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict. Closer communication, consultation and cooperation between Australia and its Southeast Asian neighbors is an investment in our shared future
Timor-Leste's accession is an ideal moment for the Albanese government to build momentum for the elevation of the Australia-Indonesia-Timor-Leste trilateral partnership, from the foreign minister to the leadership level.
As part of such an arrangement, annual trilateral leaders' and ministerial-level summits should be held, in line with the Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (CSP), which aims to increase and strengthen trilateral meetings between Indonesia, Australia, and Timor-Leste.
The trilateral meetings could focus on areas of shared interests and challenges like border security, defense infrastructure and maritime security. For instance, they could together increase their maritime security capabilities by running regular maritime patrols, holding annual joint military exercises, training, and naval port visits. Joint maritime training and patrols would be particularly beneficial for Timor-Leste's tiny navy, which continues to struggle combating illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in its maritime waters. The country losses approximately $300 million per year due to illegal fishing in the Timor Sea.
The 2022 Australia-Timor-Leste Reciprocal Defense Cooperation Agreement tries to address these security challenges, by increasing bilateral security cooperation, especially in the maritime domain. As part of the deal, Timorese defense personnel operating or training in Australia will receive the same protections, responsibilities, and privileges as Australian personnel will receive in Timor-Leste. In 2023, Australia committed to donating two Guardian-class patrol boats to Timor-Leste by 2024. Nonetheless, the Timor-Leste navy is yet to receive the vessels due to the inadequate condition of the Port Hera Naval base.
Ironically, Timor-Leste was the central factor in the significant decline of Australia-Indonesia bilateral relations in the second half of the 1990s. The 1995 Australia-Indonesia security agreement was torn up by Indonesia in 1999 after the Australian-led multinational invention in East Timor, which had been an Indonesian province since its forcible incorporation in 1976. This marked an all-time low in the bilateral relationship, but in the years since it has been able to recover from this setback and has matured over time.
In the 2006 Lombok treaty, Jakarta and Canberra recognized each other's territorial integrity, and they upgraded their strategic ties to a CSP in 2018. Under the new Australia-Indonesia Defense Cooperation Agreement, the two neighbors have pledged to ramp up joint military exercises and training to unprecedented levels and allow both nations to operate from each other's countries for mutually determined cooperative activities.
Since its independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has taken a realist foreign policy approach. The key priorities of Timorese foreign policy have included campaigning for full ASEAN membership and ensuring strong ties with its two large neighbors, Australia and Indonesia.
Today, Timor-Leste enjoys cordial relations with Indonesia, its largest trading partner. Citizens of Timor-Leste also have visa-free access in Indonesia. No doubt, without the crucial support of Indonesia, Dili's aspiration of becoming an ASEAN member would have been virtually impossible.
The Indonesian National Armed Forces also provide military education and training to personnel from the Timor-Leste Defense Force. The neighbors maintain a joint border security task force, which often conducts joint border patrols along the Indonesia-Timor-Leste border. They've also resolved and determined most of their land boundaries. While the region of Naktuka remains a disputed border area, Timor-Leste's Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao recently stated that the two nations are 'working together to resolve the dispute in accordance with international law.'
Subsequently, the deepening of bilateral ties between the three neighbors sets solid foundations for a high-level trilateral. It would also realize the full potential in existing trilateral ties.
The trilateral partnership should also reaffirm ASEAN's 'centrality 'in the Indo-Pacific. Australian foreign policy sees ASEAN at the center of a peaceful, stable and prosperous region, where sovereignty is respected, and all countries benefit from strategic balance.
In 1974, Australia became the grouping's first dialogue partner. Since its humble beginnings over 50 years ago, the ASEAN-Australia partnership has gained in strength. In 2010, the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement came into effect. And, in 2021, the ASEAN-Australia relationship was elevated to a Strategic Comprehensive Partnership.
Overall, Australia prioritizes a strong relationship with Southeast Asia and its northern neighbors. In Indonesia and Timor-Leste, Australia will very soon have two ASEAN countries right on its doorstep. Amid growing unpredictability in the region, now is the time for Australia to seek a high-level trilateral with its two important neighbors.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


The Diplomat
2 hours ago
- The Diplomat
ASEAN and Trump's Tariffs: Regional Calamity, Rent Seeking, or Return to the Status Quo?
On April 2, President Donald Trump threw financial markets into turmoil when he announced his 'liberation day' tariffs, which looked set to upend world trade and reverse decades of globalization. He quickly backpedaled, pausing the tariffs for 90 days in order to allow trade negotiations with the affected nations. Among the most heavily tariffed nations were many members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), including Cambodia, which was hit with a tariff of 49 percent, Laos (48 percent), Vietnam (46 percent), Myanmar (44 percent), and Thailand (36 percent). On July 8, with negotiations stalling, Trump sent out 14 tariff letters to many leaders informing them of 'new tariff lines' if they did not hurry up and settle trade deals by August 1. This quickly focused the minds and attention of the region's leaders, who rushed to negotiate with Washington in the hope of avoiding economy-crippling tariffs. After Trump's initial tariff announcement in April, ASEAN leaders were understandably concerned about the unilateral American tariffs and the possible wide-ranging negative impacts they would have on their export-based economies. On July 3, Vietnam became the first ASEAN country to secure a deal with the U.S., gaining a reduction in its tariff to 20 percent. Indonesia and the Philippines secured their deals in late July, each getting tariffed at 'only' 19 percent. This left Thailand and others in the region understandably angry at their own governments for not yet finalizing deals. When the August 1 deadline arrived, news of 'final' tariff lines was quick to calm the fears of governments and publics across the region. Laos, Myanmar, and Brunei were the only ASEAN countries that did not see threatened tariffs reduced significantly, receiving tariffs of 40 percent in the case of Laos and Myanmar, and 25 percent in the case of Brunei. Nor have there been any expressions of concern from these countries, for whom the U.S. is a relatively minor export market. Brunei's top 3 export partners are Australia, which accounts for 22 percent of its total exports, Singapore (17 percent), and China (17 percent), with the U.S. taking less than 1 percent. Likewise, Laos's top 3 export partners are China (42 percent), Vietnam (22 percent), and Thailand (14 percent), with the U.S. making up just 1.8 percent. Myanmar's top 3 export partners are China (23 percent), Thailand (20 percent), and India (8.6 percent), with the U.S. taking just 3.2 percent. Simply put, Trump and America do not matter much in economic terms to these three ASEAN countries. The final tariffs, as posted on August 1, essentially return most ASEAN member states back to the status quo ante of April 1. Aside from the above states and Singapore, which has been hit with just the 10 percent 'baseline' tariff, all other members are within percentage margins of one another. From a macro view, this will have a very limited impact on the relative competitiveness of these nations' export industries. This is not to say there will not be supply chain disruption and possible rises in prices for goods going both ways, as some products are re-exported to Southeast Asia from the U.S. via corporate supply chains. However, this should be the exception rather than the rule. When one digs further into Trump's tariff exemptions, a richer picture emerges. Annex II of his executive order includes a massive list of product exemptions. Those goods exempted include electronics, pharmaceuticals, smartphones, lumber, computers, integrated circuitry (including semiconductors, mineral and derivative refined ores (including copper and nickel), rubber, chemicals, including aromatics, fuel oils, various forms of oil derivatives and byproducts including fatty vegetable oils. Many of these are among ASEAN nations' top five exports to the United States. A straightforward way to understand these exemptions is that these are products America cannot produce or cannot be sourced elsewhere. This, of course, is to keep the American market and consumer from feeling the pinch of aggravated inflation, noticeable shortages of goods, or shortages needed for American industry. For the time being, Southeast Asian nations have been spared their worst fears. This does not mean that ASEAN economies are safe or that the region's biggest economies with significant export exposure to the American market will not be affected. Machine tools, automobiles, steel, aluminum, processed foods, and other important exports are all subject to the tariff rise. Additionally, Japan and South Korea, which can and do produce similar products, are now subject to substantially lower tariffs of 15 percent, and their industries can rapidly retool for production shifts away from Southeast Asia. The degree of impact is not yet known as the tariffs have only just gone into effect. A major point of contention and focus for the Trump administration was, and is, trade diversion: namely, goods exported from China to Southeast Asia, which are relabeled, rebranded, have slight value added, or are simply provided with fraudulent paperwork to deceive U.S. customs agents as to their origins. It is known that part of the tariff deals with Southeast Asian governments has been an insistence on cracking down on the transshipment of goods to the American market, i.e., goods from China. It is rumored that the U.S. could set regional or content origin requirements as high as 50 percent, meaning that half of the final product's value must be added in the country subject to import tariffs. This is designed to disrupt Chinese industrial and corporate supply chains and deal with product transshipment. The Trump administration's method for dealing with transshipment is to impose a 40% import tariff if customs officials deem a product to be transshipped or not in compliance with content origin rules. This is forcing some ASEAN states to reorganize their regulatory methods, with Malaysia no longer allowing chambers of commerce to issue certificates of origin. Similar moves and restructuring will be seen across ASEAN in the very near future. The problem with current content origin rules is that there is a lack of certainty as to the exact formulation and percentage or local content required. There is no defined and published formula for how much content from China or how much value-added processing will be allowed before transshipment tariffs apply. This, of course, creates massive uncertainty for business and points to a lack of clear and uniform strategy from the Trump administration. However, with transshipment, one can assume that there will be a single unified formula applied globally. If not, businesses will simply reorient to the lowest-cost and most feasible jurisdiction, as they did after the first Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on China in 2018. The Trump administration can go broad and try to punish China-based businesses, which will lead to significant supply chain disruption, reorganization, and the likely movement of some production out of China. The second option is a narrow application designed to do away with small value add, relabeling, and the like, which will lead to minor disruptions to the status quo. Which way the administration breaks depends on its intent to harm Chinese business while mitigating noticeable effects to American consumers. In addition to the uncertainty surrounding transshipment rules is Trump's continuously shifting policy. On August 7, the day before the tariffs were set to come into force, the U.S. president announced that he would now levy a 100 percent tariff on semiconductor imports. Major producers such as South Korea had already secured exemption of semiconductors as part of their 'deal.' It can be assumed that Southeast Asian governments secured product line-specific carve-outs similar to South Korea rather than depending on the vagaries of Trump's executive order, which subjected exemptions in accordance with Section 232 national security investigations. Trump managed to leverage American economic and trade power against ASEAN states by setting sky-high initial tariff threats, engaging in bilateral negotiations, and using compressed time frame tactics to gain beneficial outcomes. Nearly all ASEAN countries that cut deals within the August 1 deadline, including Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, agreed to large purchases of U.S. goods, including Boeing planes and liquefied natural gas (LNG), designed to reduce the size of their trade surpluses with the U.S. On the surface, this appears to be a major win for certain American industries. However, Boeing currently has an order backlog of over a decade, while its 737 Max, which Cambodia, Malaysia and Indonesia have promised to purchase, is still grounded by the FAA due to its deadly flight safety record. LNG was also a major sell for ASEAN states in the trade negotiations. However, LNG production is nearing maximum capacity in the U.S., with new export production of 11 billion cubic meters coming online in 2028. Given that the European Union is reportedly going to buy €750 billion in LNG over the coming decade, a big question is whether these LNG deals are real or a form of performative statecraft designed to placate Trump. The laws of physics and markets at present and in the near future simply do not equate to America being able to increase LNG production to meet all these trade deals. Put simply, on paper, Trump's transactionalism sounds great, but the delivery timelines of the promised Boeing planes and LNG will stretch far beyond Trump's presidency, by which point they might well be canceled or renegotiated. Initial economic analysis predicts that the current tariff regime could reduce Thailand's GDP by 0.44 percent, Vietnam's by 0.33 percent, and Indonesia's by 0.11 percent, reflecting their different industry-specific tariff lines and exemptions. However, preliminary economic forecasts can only be speculative, given the lack of certainty around rules and enforcement. These forecasts also do not take into account Southeast Asian government measures aimed at stabilizing industries, such as export subsidies, and other policy responses that are certain to materialize. Thailand has already set aside 20 billion baht ($618 million) for the support of affected industries, and other governments are likely to follow suit in order to secure their economic interests. President Trump has managed to rearrange relations with ASEAN states and has successfully made most Southeast Asian leaders 'kiss my ass.' However, his heavy-handed tactics have touched raw nerves with leaders and publics in the region. Singaporean Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen articulated the regional sentiment when he stated during this year's Munich Security Conference that the U.S. was now behaving like a 'landlord seeking rent,' bringing into question American steadfastness and Washington's commitment to the region. That remark was made prior to Trump's initial tariff announcement; the past few months have likely only reinforced these views. The president has also delinked trade from security partnerships, altering a hallmark of previous foreign policy. It appears that only Singapore received significant benefits from being a close U.S. security partner, although this was possibly the result of its trade deficit with Washington. As existing relationships have been brought into question and economic pressure builds, Southeast Asian leaders need to grasp the opportunity to deepen trade ties through the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, unlock the ASEAN Trade in Services Agreement, and provide industry support for supply chain ownership in ASEAN states.


The Diplomat
4 hours ago
- The Diplomat
India-Philippines Ties Now Strategic Partnership on Upward Trajectory
Visa-free travel, direct flights, technological cooperation and cultural exchanges are set to complement the new defense-heavy alignment, aiming to turn a once-distant relationship into a broad-based alliance. This August, the visit of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to India marked a historic milestone in the relations between the two nations. The president's visit, which took place between August 4-8, was the first such state visit since 2007. On August 5, India and the Philippines formally elevated their ties to a Strategic Partnership, backed by a comprehensive bilateral Plan of Action (2025–2029) signed in New Delhi. In all, 13 memoranda and agreements were signed during Marcos Jr.'s visit. The partnership spans defense, maritime cooperation, trade, digital technologies, tourism, space cooperation, culture and science. However, the transition from a prolonged historic stasis to the current phase of strategic dynamism has not been sudden. While India and the Philippines established bilateral diplomatic relations in 1949, thanks to Cold War politics, for decades, their partnership remained largely symbolic — anchored in mutual goodwill but unfulfilled potential. Initial limitations were rooted in geographical distance, divergent regional priorities and systemic constraints. Over time, however, India's Look East policy, re-branded in 2014 as the Act East policy, began paving the way for more meaningful engagement through ASEAN frameworks, and India's initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative and Security and Growth for All in the Region, whose acronym SAGAR means ocean in multiple Indian languages. This was upgraded to Mahasagar, meaning the great ocean, in March 2025. The expanded acronym stands for Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions. As India and the Philippines celebrate 75 years of bilateral ties, they stand stronger together at the cusp of making qualitative leaps in their relationship. Defense Ties Key Unlike several of its Southeast Asian peers, the Philippines does not have a strong trade relationship with India. The defense and security partnership has thus become the central pillar of the New Delhi-Manila strategic alignment. This is aptly reflected in the agreement on the sale of BrahMos supersonic cruise missile systems to the Philippines. This makes it the first country to procure these missiles from India. India's BrahMos cruise missile system, delivered in two batches (first in April 2024 and the second in April 2025), now empowers the Philippine Marine Corps with advanced coastal defense capability. This was India's first major defense export. During Marcos' recent visit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that defense cooperation is 'a symbol of deep mutual trust.' In turn, Marcos emphasized the Philippines as a vital partner in India's Act East and Mahasagar vision. Manila is also eyeing procurement of the Akash surface-to-air missile system from India. Strategic Calculus and China On the eve of Marcos' visit, the Indian and Philippine navies conducted their first-ever joint exercises in the South China Sea on August 3-4. The drills were held inside the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone, as part of Manila's broader efforts to counter China's maritime assertiveness. India deployed three warships – INS Delhi, INS Shakti, and INS Kiltan – while the Philippines fielded BRP Miguel Malvar and BRP Jose Rizal. Chinese vessels reportedly followed the Indian-Philippine flotilla. This shift signals a strategic evolution in India's posture toward the Indo‑Pacific. Barring a few exceptions, India had previously avoided direct mentions of the South China Sea. However, New Delhi now explicitly endorses adherence to the 2016 South China Sea arbitration award, drawing focus on upholding a rules-based maritime order. For India, the South China Sea issue is no longer a peripheral concern, but is integral to its maritime and economic security as well as its regional leadership claims. The partnership with the Philippines is a tangible expression of India's Indo‑Pacific ambitions. India's presence there through joint naval patrols and supplying BrahMos to the Philippines reflects an operational follow-through, not just a diplomatic alignment. The aim is deterrence and presenting a viable counterweight to China's claims in a region critical to global trade, through which about $3 trillion worth of goods transit annually. Manila's pursuit of deeper ties with extra-regional partners such as India represents a deliberate move to reduce dependence on any single ally (for example, the U.S.) and forge multi-directional security and economic collaborations. Looking at the South China Sea (or West Philippine Sea, as the part within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone is called) issue from the Philippine perspective, it is clear that — barring perhaps Vietnam on occasion — no country has faced as much harassment over territorial claims at the hands of China as the Philippines has. Recognizing the need to balance China's assertiveness, both countries are prioritizing maritime cooperation, information sharing and defense engagements to protect a rules-based order in the area. Diversifying its security and defense partnerships would not only reduce the Philippines' dependency on any single country but also empower the Philippines and India to navigate the complex interplay of regional strategic dynamics effectively. Beyond Security This strategic realignment extends into non-military domains too. For instance, India and the Philippines announced visa-free entry for Indian tourists and free e-visas for Filipino nationals, alongside plans for direct Delhi–Manila flights, expected to expand bilateral tourism and people-to-people exchanges. It has not gone unnoticed in Manila that Thailand and Malaysia offered visa-free entry to Indian tourists and, as a result, saw great benefits in tourism. These recent moves promise to further strengthen people-to-people linkages between the two countries. The two sides have also agreed to launch a preferential trade negotiation, as bilateral trade remains modest ($3.3 billion in 2024), but has abundant room for growth. This is in tune with the ongoing review of the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement that was implemented in 2010. India-Philippines collaboration frameworks span space exploration, digital innovation, culture, health and agriculture, all underpinned by the 2025–29 Plan of Action. India's strengths, including IT, digital inclusion, pharmaceuticals, and space, align closely with the Philippines' development goals, positioning the partnership for substantive impact beyond security. Once characterized by distant potential and limited interaction, the bilateral relationship between India and the Philippines is now evolving into a strong strategic partnership. In a changing Indo-Pacific region marked by increasing great-power rivalry, this partnership stands to benefit India's pursuit of its strategic objectives, and the Philippines' efforts for strategic diversification. Originally published by


Japan Times
13 hours ago
- Japan Times
Australia's Albanese says Netanyahu 'in denial' over suffering in Gaza
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, is "in denial" about the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip, a day after announcing Australia would recognize a Palestinian state for the first time. Australia will recognize a Palestinian state at next month's United Nations General Assembly, Albanese said on Monday, a move that adds to international pressure on Israel after similar announcements from France, Britain and Canada. Albanese said on Tuesday the Netanyahu government's reluctance to listen to its allies contributed to Australia's decision to recognize a Palestinian state. "He again reiterated to me what he has said publicly as well, which is to be in denial about the consequences that are occurring for innocent people," Albanese said in an interview with state broadcaster ABC, recounting a Thursday phone call with Netanyahu discussing the issue. Australia's decision to recognize a Palestinian state is conditional on commitments received from the Palestinian Authority, including that Islamist militant group Hamas would have no involvement in any future state. Albanese said last month he would not be drawn on a timeline for recognition of a Palestinian state, and has previously been wary of dividing public opinion in Australia, which has significant Jewish and Muslim minorities. But the public mood has shifted sharply after Israel said it planned to take military control of Gaza, amid increasing reports of hunger and malnutrition amongst its people. Tens of thousands of demonstrators marched across Sydney's Harbour Bridge this month calling for aid deliveries in Gaza as the humanitarian crisis worsened. "This decision is driven by popular sentiment in Australia which has shifted in recent months, with a majority of Australians wanting to see an imminent end to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza," said Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University. Neighboring New Zealand has said it is still considering whether to recognize a Palestinian state, a decision that drew sharp criticism from former Prime Minister Helen Clark on Tuesday. "This is a catastrophic situation, and here we are in New Zealand somehow arguing some fine point about whether we should recognise we need to be adding our voice to the need for this catastrophe to stop," she said in an interview with state broadcaster RNZ. "This is not the New Zealand I've known."