
German Inflation Slows Less Than Expected With ECB Set to Cut
German inflation slowed less than expected, highlighting lingering risks as the European Central Bank prepares to lower interest rates again.
Consumer prices rose an annual 2.1% in May, more than the 2% that economists predicted in a Bloomberg survey but lower than April's 2.2% advance. Pressures in the services sector abated, while energy costs continued to fall, the statistics office said.
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Forbes
3 hours ago
- Forbes
Stock Market: Companies Are Struggling With Inflation-Driven Consumers
Inflation has altered consumers' buying habits Year-to-year inflation may look low, but prices continue to compound upwards. For example, "Food at home" pricing, accounting for 8% of the total CPI basket, was up 1.8% in 2024. That seemingly low inflation rate nevertheless pushed up the Covid period price inflation to 27.6%, and that is what consumers are contending with. So, why is that a problem for companies? Because consumers' actions to reduce the inflationary effects can adversely affect business revenues and profits. Grocery shopping is a good example. Here are examples of what consumers can do: These actions not only affect the grocery stores, but also affect the companies that produce packaged food. The effect is measured by 'volume/mix' changes caused by consumers' altered decisions. In last year's 2023 annual reporting, Kraft's management anticipated 2024 growth from rises in both sales and prices. However, consumers tripped up the company's strategies and expectations. From the 2024 Annual Report: Note the higher pricing was well below the 2024 CPI inflation rate of almost 3%. So, how did Wall Street view Kraft's 2024 results and plans? Not well. Below is the stock's performance for the Covid-period. Note that the company (and others like it) was able to produce inflation-beating results early, but then the consumer actions began to hit, causing a reversal of the previous gains. With the consumer shifts continuing to hit results in 2025, the stock has now fallen below the cumulative inflation, making the Covid-period "real" (inflation-adjusted) stock performance negative. Kraft Heinz Covid-period stock performance (including dividends) now below cumulative CPI While the Federal Reserve focuses on the latest 12-month change in prices, it is the cumulative inflation damage that consumers focus on. After all, a "good" 12-month inflation change of 'only' 3% nevertheless compounds high prices even higher. The Covid-period rise is now about 23%. That level of inflation continues to cause damage, particularly in this period of high uncertainty (see "Uncertainties Are Churning U.S. Stock Market Outlooks" for explanation of why uncertainty can be more troublesome than risk). Here are the S&P 500's nine companies in the sector/industry combination of the normally safe consumer defensive/ packaged foods. They all got an inflation boost early but are now struggling with both higher costs and changing consumer buying actions. The weak and negative "real" (inflation-adjusted) total returns for the Covid period show Wall Street's bearish views of the situation and the outlook. Double-digit negative real performance shows inflation's continuing problems In the early 1970s when inflation was a similar concern, I read an interview with a wealthy individual. He made a surprising statement, saying he would happily give up half his wealth if the other half was guaranteed to retain its value. Why was he willing to make such a large payout? Because inflation has a potentially destructive power that can become self-sustaining, even as economic, business, and financial conditions deteriorate. It is what happened in the late 1970s and early 1980s.


Washington Post
3 hours ago
- Washington Post
New German leader Friedrich Merz will meet Trump at the White House next week
BERLIN — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to Washington next week to meet U.S. President Donald Trump , with the war in Ukraine and trade tensions among the items on the agenda, the German government said Saturday. Merz's office said the new German leader, who took the helm of Europe's biggest economy on May 6, will meet Trump at the White House on Thursday — the first in-person meeting between the two.

Associated Press
3 hours ago
- Associated Press
New German leader Friedrich Merz will meet Trump at the White House next week
BERLIN (AP) — German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to Washington next week to meet U.S. President Donald Trump, with the war in Ukraine and trade tensions among the items on the agenda, the German government said Saturday. Merz's office said the new German leader, who took the helm of Europe's biggest economy on May 6, will meet Trump at the White House on Thursday — the first in-person meeting between the two. It said that the meeting will address bilateral relations and international issues such as Russia's war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East and trade policy. Merz has plunged into diplomatic efforts to try to secure a ceasefire and keep Western support for Ukraine intact since becoming Germany's leader. On Wednesday, he hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Berlin. Germany has a strong interest in defusing trade tensions between the European Union and the United states. Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on goods imported from the 27-nation bloc starting Sunday, but then pushed back the deadline to July 9.