Mitek Systems' (NASDAQ:MITK) Earnings May Just Be The Starting Point

Yahoo

17-02-2025

Even though Mitek Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MITK ) posted strong earnings, investors appeared to be underwhelmed. We did some digging and actually think they are being unnecessarily pessimistic.
Check out our latest analysis for Mitek Systems
As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Over the twelve months to December 2024, Mitek Systems recorded an accrual ratio of -0.16. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of US$40m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of US$4.46m. Mitek Systems' free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, as we will discuss below, we can see that the company's accrual ratio has been impacted by its tax situation.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Mitek Systems received a tax benefit of US$2.7m. It's always a bit noteworthy when a company is paid by the tax man, rather than paying the tax man. Of course, prima facie it's great to receive a tax benefit. And since it previously lost money, it may well simply indicate the realisation of past tax losses. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth.
In conclusion, Mitek Systems has strong cashflow relative to earnings, which indicates good quality earnings, but the tax benefit means its profit wasn't as sustainable as we'd like to see. After taking into account all these factors, we think that Mitek Systems' statutory results are a decent reflection of its underlying earnings power. If you want to do dive deeper into Mitek Systems, you'd also look into what risks it is currently facing. You'd be interested to know, that we found 1 warning sign for Mitek Systems and you'll want to know about this.
Our examination of Mitek Systems has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.
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