The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, June 8, 2025
Everything to Know about Macro and Markets
Stocks clocked in large weekly gains, returning to positive territory year-to-date. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose by 1.17%, the S&P 500 (SPX) increased by 1.50%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) gained 1.97% for the week. The S&P 500 finished more than 20% above April's low, reclaiming the 6,000 mark first reached in February, although it remained about 2% shy of its record high.
Confident Investing Starts Here:
Macro Steers the Markets
The week began on a positive note, losing some steam in the second half. The weakness in PMI reports – with the manufacturing activity contracting for a third month in a row and services activity shrinking for the first time in 11 months – infused some gloom. However, Friday saw stocks find their footing again on solid job gains, which allayed fears about an imminent economic downturn.
U.S. jobs growth stayed strong in May, climbing 139,000 with unemployment unchanged at 4.2%. Although the March and April reports were revised downward, May's report reassured investors, as it reflected a very gradual cooling of the labor market. Still, diving into the job report's details, a stronger-than-expected wage growth continues to put a floor under inflation. This supports the Federal Reserve's 'wait and see' stance, despite President Trump's demands for a cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a June cut are nil, and July's rate decrease looks increasingly improbable. Prices in interest rate futures markets imply that investors expect two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end, with the first cut not expected until September.
Wrapping Up the Season
Despite tariff headwinds and macro volatility, S&P 500 companies delivered solid results last quarter. Index members reported 12.9% year-over-year earnings growth – the second straight double-digit increase. 78% of firms – above the five-year average – exceeded EPS estimates. However, the number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance (68) was also above the average. In Q1, the Healthcare sector reported the highest earnings growth, 43%, leaving the Magnificent Seven cohort's 27.7% increase in the dust. In fact, Mag 7's earnings growth rate was below the average (32.1%) of the previous three quarters. Still, three members of the Magnificent bunch – Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA) – are among the top five contributors to earnings growth for the S&P 500 for the first quarter. Interestingly, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) and Gilead Sciences (GILD) were the other top contributors.
Stocks That Made the News
▣ Tesla (TSLA) lost nearly 15% over the week following the ugly social media spat between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump. The feud flared up over the impending budget bill, with Musk calling it 'disgusting', and followed by Trump's threat to take away billions of dollars in government subsidies and contracts awarded to Musk's businesses. Although shares rebounded on Friday as Musk and Trump moved to cool tensions, the spat cost Tesla over $150 billion loss in market cap.
▣ Broadcom (AVGO) fell on Friday, wiping out its weekly gain, after the chip giant only narrowly surpassed analyst revenue and expectations. In addition, its current quarter revenue guidance was also just above consensus. Solid, but not a blowout quarter and outlook, weighed on shares that recently hit all-time highs. Still, the company delivered on the AI narrative, reporting surging demand and upping AI networking revenue guidance.
▣ Microsoft (MSFT) continued its climb, hitting a fresh record on Friday as analysts raised price targets on acceleration in Azure and AI-related revenue growth. According to Goldman Sachs, Microsoft's cloud revenue could more than double by 2029. The tech leader's market cap has reached $3.5 trillion, surpassing that of Nvidia (NVDA) and making MSFT the largest company in the world.
▣ Lululemon (LULU) shares dove by 20% on Friday, capping large weekly losses, despite earnings beat. The apparel retailer cut guidance on macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of tariffs that might force LULU to increase prices.
▣ DocuSign (DOCU) was another notable decliner, sinking nearly 19% post earnings. The company reported a strong financial performance, but a miss on billings raised investor fears about future growth.
The Q1 2025 earnings season is practically over, but several notable earnings releases are still scheduled for the next few days. These include Casey's General (CASY), Oracle (ORCL), Chewy (CHWY), and Adobe (ADBE).
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