US Stock Market on Monday, August 18: What to expect for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones?
US Stock Market
eyes the trading week ahead with cautious optimism, Monday, August 18, looms as a pivotal day for capturing investor sentiment. Last Friday's pullback—marked by modest declines in the S&P 500 (‑0.29%) and
Nasdaq
(‑0.40%), offset by a slight gain in the Dow—reflects a market digesting soft consumer sentiment and semiconductor sector weakness. A contraction in chip stocks, led by a sharp drop in Applied Materials, and a decrease in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index to 58.6 signal wary consumer confidence amid inflation concerns.
S&P 500: Will the Rally Resume?
The S&P 500—currently near its all-time highs, with a recent closing benchmark at approximately 6,450—stands at a crossroads. Strategists remain divided: while UBS and Deutsche Bank expect easing inflation and anticipated Fed rate cuts starting in September to reignite upside momentum, contrarian voices like Stifel's Barry Bannister warn of a possible 14 per cent pullback in the index before the end of 2025, potentially driving the S&P down to around 5,500. For August 18, markets will likely pivot on whether the recent retreat proves temporary or signals broader slowdown pressures.
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Dow Jones
and Nasdaq: Tech Under Pressure, Yet Resilient
Dow Jones, buoyed by strength in heavyweight names like UnitedHealth (which added notable points to the index last week), posted gains even as broader indices slipped. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq remains under scrutiny: AI-led enthusiasm continues to bolster mega-cap tech players, but investors are increasingly wary of stretched valuations. Morgan Stanley projects an 8 per cent rise in the S&P over the next year—assuming forward-looking factors like better earnings revisions and a weaker dollar persist.
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Macro Risks and Defensive Strategies
While optimism around AI-driven earnings persists, numerous clouds are gathering. Core inflation remains sticky, job creation has faltered, and geopolitical policy risk—particularly around tariffs and central bank independence—looms large. Analysts are suggesting defensive positioning: Bank of America flags small- and mid-cap stocks as pockets of value amid overvaluation in large caps, while strategic voices recommend diversifying with dividend payers, Treasuries, and quality value names to hedge near-term volatility.
What to Watch on August 18?
All eyes are on Monday's open to determine if recent volatility is a bump in the road or the start of a meaningful correction. If inflation data and Fed commentary reinforce expectations for September rate cuts, the S&P 500 could push back toward new highs, potentially testing 6,500. Conversely, persistent softness could bolster bearish scenarios pointing to deeper pullbacks. For the Dow and Nasdaq, strength in defensive sectors or renewed tech buying could drive outperformance—especially if volatility abates. Overall, August 18 may serve as the litmus test for whether AI optimism or macro caution will dominate the next chapter in this enduring market narrative.
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