Trump-Musk split could leave Tesla politically homeless
Musk has spent the past few months alienating the electric automaker's base of climate-minded car buyers by moonlighting as Trump's government-slasher-in-chief. Now, the billionaire's fixation on the GOP megabill has opened a dangerous rift with the president, who threatened Thursday to end all subsidies to Musk's companies.
Tesla's stock had its largest one-day drop in history Thursday as Musk and Trump sniped at each other from their respective social media platforms. The share price fell more than 14 percent, lopping off more than $150 billion from Tesla's market value — and, according to Bloomberg, tanking Musk's personal net worth by $34 billion.
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The core of the argument between the two men — whether the Republican spending package is a 'big, beautiful bill' or a 'MOUNTAIN of DISGUSTING PORK' — is a side concern for people whose main priority is Tesla.
'The CEO of that company needs to spend his time focused on the company's success,' said Nick Nigro, the head of Atlas Public Policy, which analyzes the electric vehicle market. 'Whether his interest in federal policy comes from a good place, it's a distraction from what Tesla shareholders and drivers need, which is his full attention.'
Seth Abramson, a vociferous Musk critic who is writing a book about the entrepreneur, wrote on X that 'Musk will go the rest of his life without a political home or patron, shunned by politicians of both parties and therefore unable to effectively operate as a CEO of any company.'
The breakup between the world's richest man and one of its most powerful could have far-reaching impacts for Musk's companies.
Investor optimism about Tesla has been based on the assumption that Musk's proximity to power would lead to a national policy on autonomous vehicles that would ease the arrival of Tesla's robotaxi, which is supposed to hit the roads of Austin, Texas, this month. Musk could also lose leverage on other issues important to Tesla, such as Trump's tariffs on China's critical minerals. Meanwhile, his space company SpaceX has billions of dollars of federal defense and space contracts — now at risk — while its satellite subsidiary Starlink is angling for billions more in federal broadband subsidies.
'Attack mode'
Tesla is still the country's largest electric automaker. But the Trump-Musk split comes at a vulnerable moment for both Tesla and electric vehicles writ large.
The company is facing declining sales around the world, as its vehicle lineup has grown stale and Musk's political activities have turned off many EV buyers in Europe and North America.
Meanwhile, federal support for EVs is hanging by a thread. The House's version of the megabill would drastically scale back Biden-era tax incentives meant to stimulate EV manufacturing and sales.
The fight between Trump and Musk escalated on Thursday after Trump told reporters that Musk was 'upset' about the House-passed bill's proposal to remove EV tax credits and other incentives. Musk took to X to deny that narrative, writing: 'Keep the EV/solar incentives cuts in the bill, also cut all the crazy spending increases in the Big Ugly Bill so that America doesn't go bankrupt!'
The president's repeated attacks on EVs and vows to repeal the Biden administration's subsidies certainly didn't seem to trouble Musk much during last year's campaign, when the megabillionaire spent more than $270 million and countless hours to help put Trump back into the White House. (Trump did concede at the time that Tesla made a 'great product.')
Musk's apparent willingness to sacrifice federal incentives was unwelcome news to clean energy and EV advocates who hope Republican senators will save some of the tax credits from the Democrats' 2022 climate law. Republicans can afford to lose only three votes in the Senate, and some GOP senators have indicated they think the bill's rollbacks go too far.
The war of words between Trump and Musk ended any hopes that the Tesla CEO would have the leverage with the White House to tip the scales.
'Elon was 'wearing thin,' I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!' Trump posted on his social media site, Truth Social.
That statement was a far cry from three months ago, when Trump made a show of buying a Tesla in front of the White House. That gesture raised hopes among some Tesla shareholders that Republicans would embrace Tesla and compensate for its diminished popularity among Democrats, many of whom had taken to staging protests outside its showrooms.
'I'm going to buy because No. 1, it's a great product, as good as it gets. And No. 2, because this man has devoted his energy and his life to doing this, I think he's been treated very unfairly by a very small group of people,' Trump said at the time about Musk.
Now, that's all changed.
'Trump no longer has to say nice things about Tesla and EVs,' said Loren McDonald, an EV analyst at Paren, an EV data shop. 'He and the admin can go back to EVs are evil attack mode.'
Critical minerals and beyond
The fizzled bromance could also have far-reaching ripple effects on myriad, complex relationships that Tesla has across the globe, as well as its business before the federal government.
Musk, for example, will presumably hold no sway over the administration's intended move to impose steep tariffs on imports of Chinese graphite used to make EV batteries.
The Commerce Department concluded last month that imported Chinese graphite is receiving unfair subsidizes. The agency laid out a plan to impose tariffs of up to 721 percent on some natural and artificial graphite active anode material from China that's used in batteries.
Tesla has fought against the tariffs, with one of the company's attorneys pointing out that U.S. manufacturers don't yet produce anode material that meets carmakers' standards.
The fallout could also put a bulls-eye on Musk's financial ties to Beijing, something Democrats have repeatedly railed against.
The Trump administration and lawmakers from both parties are pushing to ease China's grip on supply chains, from the production of critical minerals to processing and manufacturing of EV batteries.
Yet Tesla has many ties to China, including reliance on graphite imports, a gigafactory located in Shanghai, and ongoing work with Contemporary Amperex Technology. CATL, the world's largest battery-maker, is on a U.S. government list of companies that work with the Chinese military.
In short, nothing on Thursday boded well for America's leading electric automaker.
'It's another Twilight Zone moment in this Musk/Trump relationship which now is quickly moving downhill,' wrote Dan Ives, an analyst at investment shop Wedbush Securities who tracks Tesla.
But Ives nonetheless remained hopeful. The subject line of his email: 'Friends Again Soon?'
Hannah Northey contributed to this report.
This story also appears in Climatewire.
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