Pick your poll

Politico

21 hours ago

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With help from Cris Seda Chabrier
Two new internal polls, first reported by POLITICO, agree: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor is effectively a two-person race between Andrew Cuomo and Zohran Mamdani.
And both polls suggest the race will come down to ranked-choice voting, with New Yorkers who prefer other candidates helping determine the winner.
But the results varied. A poll from the ex-governor's camp showed him with a 12-point lead over the democratic socialist Assemblymember. The poll from Mamdani's supporters found something slightly, but significantly different — a tight race, with Cuomo up by just two points.
Cuomo's poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters by Expedition Strategies has him beating Mamdani 56 to 44 in the eighth round of voting. Cuomo started as 42 percent of voters' first pick, to Mamdani's 30 percent.
The result shows Cuomo gaining more support, compared to the last public poll from Emerson College conducted late last month.
While the Cuomo poll was in the field between June 3 and 7, candidates faced off in their first televised debate on June 4, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez selected Mamdani as her top choice the following day. During the same period, pro-Cuomo super PAC Fix the City also started blanketing the airwaves and mailboxes with ads saying Mamdani wanted to raise taxes and defund the police.
A poll of 819 likely Democratic primary voters — conducted days earlier by Data for Progress on behalf of the pro-Mamdani super PAC New Yorkers for Lower Costs and the Working Families Party's national PAC — showed Cuomo up 40-33 on Mamdani in first-ranked votes. When ranked votes are distributed, Cuomo wins it in the eighth round by a 51-49 split — within the three-point margin of error.
That result had top Cuomo adviser Melissa DeRosa desperately looking to discredit the poll. (Data for Progress had a strong showing in 538's pollster ratings, and was spot-on in the 2021 mayoral race.) While top campaign staffer Kevin Elkins said it was 'cruel to get (Mamdani's) supporters' hopes up like this.'
But nothing could bring down the believers — like Mamdani campaign cinematographer Donald Borenstein who simply responded: 'LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO'
Beyond the top line results, the two polling memos provide some more insight into the state of the race last week.
Wonder why Cuomo's become more vocal on Trump? His polling shows that half of likely voters thought he was the best candidate to stand up to the president, compared to just 25 percent for Mamdani — suggesting that's a strength for Cuomo, even among voters who don't prefer him.
And unlike Cuomo, who's known by 97 percent of voters (who are split 50-50 in their feelings about him), Mamdani still has likely voters who, for better or for worse, don't know him.
More than a quarter, 28 percent, don't know enough about him to form an opinion, Data for Progress found. — Jeff Coltin
IT'S TUESDAY: Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.
WHERE'S KATHY? In Albany with no public schedule, and appearing in a pre-taped interview on NBC's 'The Kelly Clarkson Show.'
WHERE'S ERIC? Schedule unavailable as of 10 p.m. Monday.
QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'If Airbnb thinks it's a flex to publicly light their money on fire, we're happy to not stand in their way on this one.' — Hotel and Gaming Trades Council Political Director Bhav Tibrewal to POLITICO on Airbnb spending $1 million on an ad attacking three Cuomo opponents amid the union's lobbying battle against the tech giant.
ABOVE THE FOLD
NEW YORK FOR ALL PUSH: New York House Democrats are urging their Albany colleagues to approve a sanctuary state bill in the waning days of the legislative session.
The bill, known as New York For All, would prevent state and local entities from coordinating with or providing resources to federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials.
A group of nine House lawmakers — including Reps. Nydia Velázquez, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jerrold Nadler — urged top Albany Democrats to take up the bill in a letter obtained by Playbook. They warned that President Donald Trump 'has unleashed chaos and cruelty on immigrants, tearing families apart, disappearing people, using political repression tactics, and disregarding court orders with impunity.'
Passage of the bill is taking on heightened urgency after Trump deployed the National Guard to Los Angeles in response to anti-ICE protests. The Trump administration on Monday activated 700 Marines to respond to the unrest as well.
The letter does not reference the California protests, but the alarm over Trump — and his aggressive efforts to address undocumented immigration through deportations — is an overriding concern for the lawmakers.
'We urge the New York State Legislature to reject Trump's efforts to scapegoat our most vulnerable neighbors as a pretense for dismantling our core democratic institutions. At the same time, we are committed to protecting New York against efforts to take away federal funding for critical services in retaliation for opposing this administration's policies.'
Immigration politics remain profoundly tricky (and unavoidable) for Democrats, even in a deep blue state like New York.
Hochul, a Democrat who will run for re-election next year, has not taken a public position on the bill. It's also unclear if Democrats — mindful of lawmakers in swing seats — have enough votes to pass it.
The governor has supported the deportation of violent criminals, but does not back families being ripped apart, her office has said. Hochul has also pushed back against the Trump administration's effort to upend the Greenlight Law, which allows undocumented immigrants to obtain driver's licenses — a concept she opposed as the Erie County clerk when Eliot Spitzer proposed it nearly 20 years ago.
Her potential Republican foes next year — Reps. Elise Stefanik, Mike Lawler and Bruce Blakeman — have all called for expanded policies for New York law enforcement to work with ICE.
Hochul will face questions — and likely pressure — Thursday when she and several other governors testify to a Congressional panel over their states' sanctuary policies. Republican state lawmakers on Tuesday will hold a news conference with suggested questions for their federal counterparts to ask the governor. — Nick Reisman
CITY HALL: THE LATEST
LANDER'S LOBBYISTS: Mayoral hopeful Brad Lander never refunded campaign contributions from corporate lobbyists and real estate bigs that he pledged not to take money from — and even accepted more money from lobbyists, breaking his pledge once again.
Lander spokesperson Dora Pekec told Playbook in March the comptroller would 'of course return any donations that do not conform to our pledge' against real estate developer money and lobbyists representing corporations.
But Lander's campaign finance report released two months later showed he held onto money from at least ten real estate developers and ten lobbyists, even after POLITICO flagged the names. The May 23 report also showed he took in new contributions from lobbyists, including $250 from Jim Capalino, who leads his eponymous firm, $200 from Jonathan Bing of Greenberg Traurig and $1,000 from lobbying firm Greenberg Traurig's PAC.
Pekec said they've now sent back the money, and this time they mean it. 'Donations not conforming to the campaign's policy have been returned,' she said, adding that it'll be reflected in the next filing, due Friday.
Lander has reported raising more than $1.7 million for his mayoral campaign and has gotten an additional $5.8 million in public matching funds. — Jeff Coltin
More from the city:
— Both major leaders of the Satmar Hasidic community in Williamsburg are expected to endorse Cuomo for mayor. (Williamsburg 365)
— Longshot mayoral candidate Michael Blake sued to get onto the final debate stage, claiming his donors were illegally rejected. (New York Post)
— Rafael Salamanca Jr. is eyeing Bronx borough hall. He has to topple Vanessa Gibson to get there. (City & State)
NEW FROM PLANET ALBANY
FAIR PLAY IN ALBANY: State Attorney General Letitia James is trying to get a bill over the finish line that's meant to expand consumer protection laws.
But the proposal is getting push back from private sector boosters in the final days of the state's legislative session.
Dubbed The Fair Act, the bill would amend the state consumer protection laws to include modern-day issues like making it easier to cancel subscriptions, repay loans and better understand pricing plans.
Private-sector groups in the last week have urged state lawmakers to reject the bill. The influential Partnership for New York City in a memo opposing it wrote the proposal is a 'significant restructuring of New York's consumer protection laws.'
A coalition of local business groups warned in a letter that the bill would expose companies to legal risk.
'Small businesses will be threatened with legal shakedowns should this bill become law,' the groups wrote.
James' office has tried to address these issues. She's negotiated safeguards for the private sector geared toward incentivizing customers to complain directly to businesses first. The provisions are meant to limit litigation to only the most significant consumer disputes. — Nick Reisman
PRISON OVERSIGHT DEAL NEARS: State legislators are expected to reach a two-way deal on prison oversight, POLITICO Pro reports.
The package comes at the end of a session when two separate incidents stoked outrage, including the release of video showing the killing of handcuffed Marcy Correctional Facility inmate Robert Brooks by prison guards.
It's expected to include 10 separate bills lumped into an omnibus measure. That includes proposals to mandate fixed cameras in prisons, require the quick release of body camera footage to the attorney general's office, and expand the state Commission on Correction.
'We're increasing transparency and accountability in our correction facilities,' state Sen. Jamaal Bailey said. 'This is not an attack on correction workers — they work really hard and we appreciate the work that they do. We just want to make sure that the facilities are safe for everybody — for the incarcerated individuals, in addition to the staff and the correction officers.' — Bill Mahoney
More from Albany:
— Andrew Cuomo's very pricey bridge lighting scheme is getting a cheap denouement on the auction block. (POLITICO)
— Top state Democrats blasted Trump's 'one big beautiful bill' for its potential hit to New York. (Buffalo News)
— The state Senate approved a controversial aid-in-dying bill, which now goes to Hochul. (POLITICO Pro)
KEEPING UP WITH THE DELEGATION
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: More than 100 signatories spanning labor, policy, social services and health care groups are urging the state's congressional delegation to do more to protect the New York Essential Plan, which benefits low-income New Yorkers who aren't eligible for Medicaid.
The Republican megabill now moving through the Senate may spell doomsday for the landmark health care plan, which could see its $13 billion annual budget halved, POLITICO Pro has reported. The Essential Plan also helps lawfully present non-citizens who would have to be shifted onto state-only Medicaid.
'In short, these changes would be a disaster for New York — withdrawing billions of dollars a year in federal funding for the state, imposing $2.7 billion annually in increased Medicaid costs, raising healthcare prices for hundreds of thousands of US citizens who access healthcare through New York State of Health,' the massive coalition writes in its letter today to New York's federal representatives.
Among those signed on to the plea are 32BJ, the New York State Nurses Association, the New York Immigration Coalition, Make the Road New York, the Fiscal Policy Institute and the Chinese-American Planning Council.
New York's congressional Democrats have sought to push back on Trump's 'big, beautiful bill,' including by messaging that the Republicans are targeting health care. But they're greatly limited as the minority in both the House and the Senate. — Emily Ngo
More from Congress:
— The Congressional Hispanic Caucus, led by Rep. Adriano Espaillat, is demanding a congressional probe into Trump's response to anti-ICE riots in Los Angeles. (Punchbowl News)
— A Medicare proposal some Republicans want to include in their sweeping megabill has the backing of a key Democrat. (POLITICO)
— House Speaker Mike Johnson says July 4 is still the target for passing Trump's 'big, beautiful bill.' (POLITICO)
NEW YORK STATE OF MIND
— New York City will remove a defunct jail barge from the Bronx waterfront and add a new marine cargo terminal. (Gothamist)
— WNYC's Brian Lehrer and NY1's Errol Louis take stock of the city's political scene in a joint interview. (The New Yorker)
— Former Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano wants the Supreme Court to review his corruption case. (Newsday)
SOCIAL DATA
MAKING MOVES: Albert J. Pirro, Jr. has joined public affairs and venture consulting firm Oaktree Solutions as a strategic adviser. Pirro was a land use and zoning attorney with Abrams Fensterman.
MEDIAWATCH: Josefa Velásquez is joining Newsday as an investigative reporter. She was previously economics and equity editor for WNYC/Gothamist and is a POLITICO alum.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYC Council Member Pierina Sanchez … former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer … CNN's Jeff Zeleny … NBC's Shannon Pettypiece, Kate Snow and Sarah DeCaro … WSJ's Corinne Ramey … Meta's Meredith Carden … ABC's Ellie Kaufman … Jeff Greenfield … (WAS MONDAY): Letty Pogrebin
Missed Monday's New York Playbook PM? We forgive you. Read it here.