TSX futures steady as Trump-Putin meeting takes center stage
The futures on the S&P/TSX index (.SXFcv1), opens new tab rose 0.04% by 05:30 a.m. ET (0930 GMT), following the S&P/TSX composite index's (.GSPTSE), opens new tab losses on Tuesday, when a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report clouded hopes for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, odds for a 25-basis-point reduction next month reduced to 92.6% from the previous 100% before the data, while bets for a hefty 50-bps move have completely vanished.
The stage was set for talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska later on Friday, although hopes for a lasting ceasefire to end the conflict in Ukraine remain slim.
Ahead of the summit, oil prices slipped on heightened concerns about fuel demand due to largely disappointing economic data from the U.S. and China.
Gold prices remained steady but were poised for a weekly decline, while copper was on track to post gains for the week.
Despite Thursday's losses, expectations for Fed easing have kept Canadian equities on track to finish the week higher. The TSX is up 0.56% so far this week.
About 75% of Canada's exports go to the U.S., with much of them exempt from tariffs under the continental trade pact. So, a Fed move could also benefit Canada.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, domestic investors will digest June manufacturing sales and wholesale trade data. Later in the day, U.S. releases include import prices, consumer sentiment and retail sales.
In other news, Air Canada (AC.TO), opens new tab and its flight attendants remained at odds on Friday, despite government pleas to resume bargaining and avert a strike.
FOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES:
TSX market report
Canadian dollar and bonds report CA/
Reuters global stocks poll for Canada ,
Canadian markets directory
($1 = 1.3793 Canadian dollars)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
28 minutes ago
- Reuters
Take Five: From Anchorage to Jackson Hole
Aug 18 (Reuters) - There seems to be very little standing in the way of stock-market bulls right now, but what follows a U.S./Russia summit in Alaska, a central bank shin-dig in Wyoming and the outcome of Bolivia's election may imbue them with some caution. Here's your week ahead from Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Suzanne McGee and Rodrigo Campos in New York and Dhara Ranasinghe and Naomi Rovnick in London. Following Friday's meeting between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, it's the turn of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders to meet the U.S. President later on Monday, opens new tab to map out a peace deal. The fear is Trump could try to pressure Kyiv into accepting a settlement favourable to Moscow. Zelenskiy has already all but rejected the outline of Putin's proposals, including for Ukraine to give up the rest of its eastern Donetsk region, of which it currently controls a quarter. No doubt, markets will be hesitant to price in an end to the war until a ceasefire, at least, is agreed. Europe, meanwhile, is unlikely to embrace Russia, even if peace returns to Ukraine. Defence stocks are likely to remain an investor favourite for now. It's officially summer in financial markets. Q2 earnings are out, the next crop of major economic data isn't until early September and many money managers and traders are heading out to the beaches for a break. There is just one thing to worry about: Jackson Hole. The Wyoming resort plays host to the annual central bankers' schmoozefest and will include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell among its attendees. The conference takes place as stocks hover near record levels, and Trump continues to take pot-shots at Powell. Jackson Hole has the potential to be disruptive. Any hint from Powell that a September rate cut isn't happening and markets could sell off hard, while an overly upbeat tone from the Fed chair may feed more euphoria. 'And bull markets die in euphoria,' says Steve Sosnick, strategist at trading firm IBKR. As global stocks rally, everything from weak U.S. jobs data to trouble at the top of the Federal Reserve has been a reason to bet on U.S. rate cuts, meaning it's not been profitable to be bearish. About 60% of global investors surveyed by BofA think U.S. stagflation could be the dominant global market regime within three months. A basket of stocks that do well in stagflationary environments, where growth slows as inflation accelerates, has been outpaced by Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX), opens new tab this year, Societe Generale strategists reckon. Next week's business surveys, which can show economic trends months before they appear in official data, will offer more clues about whether U.S. tariffs are driving the world's largest towards stagflation. SocGen, however, expects Fed rate cuts to inflate a stock-market bubble that might not pop until at least next year. With nearly every central bank looking to cut rates to give their economies a soft landing, the Bank of Japan stands apart in its mission to raise borrowing costs - in theory. So, next Friday's inflation data will be in focus for any sign of when the BOJ's long-pledged tightening cycle will resume. The previous reading of the core consumer price index (CPI) showed an annual 3.3% increase in June, remaining above the BOJ's 2% target for over three years. No bank went harder or longer with quantitative easing than the BOJ. But the long road towards normalisation has been complicated by uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and concerns about whether Japan was seeing the right kind of price increases. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has justified slower rate hikes because underlying inflation, which focuses on domestic demand and wages, remains below the central bank's target. Centrist senator Rodrigo Paz was leading Bolivia's presidential election late on Sunday. The election kicks off a string of national and local votes across Latin America that extends into late next year, when behemoth Brazil votes to elect a new (or sitting) president. After 2022's "pink tide" brought left-leaning governments to power in Chile, Colombia and Brazil, investors want to see if voters will return to more market-friendly right-wingers. Ahead of the Bolivian election, the country's bonds rallied on hopes that political change could bring the economy back from the brink. Argentina's local elections in September and October are seen as a gauge of the popularity of President Javier Milei's radical economic transformation. Chile votes for a president in November, while next year Colombia elects its congress in March and president in May. Peru holds a presidential election in April and Brazil does so in October 2026.
The Independent
2 hours ago
- The Independent
Asian shares mostly gain as eyes turn to meetings at the White House and Jackson Hole
Asian shares were mostly higher Monday after U.S. stocks edged back from their record levels on Friday. U.S. futures were little changed as investors watched for developments in the Ukraine crisis following a summit between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that brought no breakthroughs. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.9% to 43.776.38, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.3% to 25,344.48. The Shanghai Composite index jumped 1.2% to 3,740.50. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was virtually unchanged, while the Kospi in South Korea declined 1.3% to 3,184.17. Trump was preparing to meet later Monday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other European leaders in Washington. The European vanguard were not included in Trump's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday. They are seeking to present a united front in safeguarding Ukraine and the continent from any widening aggression from Moscow. An annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, of top central bankers later this week is also drawing attention. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is due to speak Friday at the economic policy conference. Expectations have been building that the Fed will cut interest rates at its next meeting in September, though mixed reports on the U.S. economy have undercut those bets somewhat. One report Friday said shoppers boosted their spending at U.S. retailers last month, while another said manufacturing in New York state unexpectedly grew. A third said industrial production across the country shrank last month, when economists were looking for modest growth. Yet another report suggested sentiment among U.S. consumers is worsening because of worries about inflation, when economists expected to see a slight improvement. On Wall Street, UnitedHealth Group jumped 12% on Friday after famed investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway said it bought nearly 5 million shares of the insurer during the spring, valued at $1.57 billion. Buffett is known for trying to buy good stocks at affordable prices, and UnitedHealth's halved for the year by the end of July because of a run of struggles. Berkshire Hathaway's own stock slipped 0.4%. Applied Materials helped lead Wall Street lower with a decline of 14.1% even though it reported better results for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The focus was on the company's forecast for a drop in revenue during the current quarter. Its products help manufacture semiconductors and advanced displays, and CEO Gary Dickerson pointed to a 'dynamic macroeconomic and policy environment, which is creating increased uncertainty and lower visibility in the near term, including for our China business.' Sandisk fell 4.6% despite reporting a profit for the latest quarter that blew past analysts' expectations. Investors focused instead on the data storage company's forecast for profit in the current quarter, which came up short of Wall Street's. On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 6,449.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.1% higher, to 44,946.12. The Nasdaq composite sank 0.4% to 21,622.98. In other dealings early Monday, U.S. benchmark crude oil shed 2 cents to $62.82 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, gave up 6 cents to $65.79 per barrel. The U.S. dollar rose to 147.38 Japanese yen from 147.18 yen. The euro was unchanged at $1.1703.
Reuters
2 hours ago
- Reuters
Oil prices steady as Russia supply concerns ease after Trump-Putin meet
SINGAPORE, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices were largely unchanged on Monday after a drop in early trade, as the United States exerted no further pressure on Russia to end the Ukraine war through measures to disrupt its oil exports following a meeting of the leaders of both nations. Brent crude futures dropped 6 cents, or 0.09%, to $65.79 a barrel by 0342 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.82 a barrel, up 2 cents, or 0.03%. U.S. President Donald Trump met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday and emerged more aligned with Moscow on seeking a peace deal instead of a ceasefire first. Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders on Monday to strike a quick peace deal to end Europe's deadliest war in 80 years. On Friday, Trump said he did not immediately need to consider retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for buying Russian oil but might have to "in two or three weeks", cooling concerns about a disruption in Russian supply. "A non-outcome was largely priced in, the market remains in wait-and-see, more in a bearish context, if more Russian barrels can arrive into the global crude supply pool should hostilities end in Ukraine," said independent energy analyst Gaurav Sharma. China, the world's biggest oil importer, is the largest buyer of Russian oil, followed by India. "What was primarily in play were the secondary tariffs targeting the key importers of Russian energy, and President Trump has indeed indicated that he will pause pursuing incremental action on this front, at least for China," RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note. "The status quo remains largely intact for now," Croft said, adding that Moscow would not walk back territorial demands while Ukraine and some European leaders would balk at the land-for-peace deal. Investors are also watching for clues from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at this week's Jackson Hole meeting regarding the path of interest rate cuts that could boost stocks to further records. "It's likely he will remain noncommittal and data-dependent, especially with one more payroll and Consumer Price Index (CPI) report before the September 17 FOMC meeting," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
