MLB Awards watch for MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of Year: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge early leaders in race

Yahoo

5 days ago

We're a little over one-third of the way through the 2025 MLB regular season, meaning we've started to gain some clarity on what to expect from both a player and team perspective. With June just around the corner, it becomes increasingly difficult to wave away players' performances as merely early mirages or small-sample flukes. It's time to start taking the statistics and standings a little more seriously.
As such, let's take a look at where the three major award races stand and identify the top three candidates entering Thursday at this stage of the season.
AL MVP
1. Aaron Judge, Yankees OF
The two-time MVP and Yankees captain has somehow leveled up again in his age-33 season. With his stupendous ability to slug still regularly on display, Judge has managed to considerably improve his contact skills as well, enabling his batting average to soar to unexpected heights (.391!!!) and his strikeout rate to sink to a career-low (21.9%). Barring injury, Judge is a surefire bet to become just the 12th player ever to win three MVP awards.
2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals SS
Bobby Baseball's bat hasn't been quite as potent this season, with his wRC+ down to 124 compared to the 168 mark he finished 2024 with en route to his MVP runner-up finish. But the immense value he continues to provide as an outstanding defender at shortstop and as a menace on the basepaths has ensured Witt remains near the top of the WAR leaderboard and in the thick of the MVP conversation again. If his offensive production stays more good than great, it'll be interesting to see how Witt's candidacy as Judge's biggest challenger is influenced by Kansas City's place in the standings.
3. Cal Raleigh, Mariners C
Catchers have a unique opportunity to make an impact on both sides of the ball, and no backstop exemplifies that dynamic more than Raleigh. With an excellent reputation as a field general who has been instrumental in the success of Seattle's pitching staff already firmly intact, Raleigh has evolved into an all-around offensive force as well, one whose elite power and on-base skills more than compensate for the healthy dose of swing-and-miss. It's rare to see catchers slug at Raleigh's level in any given season, let alone on a yearly basis. If he can sustain anything close to the level of play he's demonstrated and the Mariners can capture their first division title since 2001, Raleigh will have as strong a case as any to be included as an AL MVP finalist.
NL MVP
1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers DH
Ohtani keeps chugging along as the sport's most spectacular performer and biggest superstar, one whose singular two-way exploits are scheduled to resume later this summer. Regardless of how many innings he ends up throwing in his highly-anticipated return to the mound, Ohtani proved last year that he is absolutely MVP-caliber strictly as a hitter. And based on his career-best home run pace through the first third of the season, Ohtani may actually still be trending up as a hitter. Should he successfully capture the NL MVP again as he appears on track to do, he'd join Barry Bonds as the only two players to ever win the award at least four times.
2. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers 1B
Fresh off a legendary postseason run, Freeman is in the midst of a sensational encore that should not be overshadowed by Ohtani's brilliance. For as incredible as Freeman was last October, recall that his regular season — for entirely understandable reasons involving what he was dealing with off the field and injuries limiting his effectiveness on it — was a notable step down from the sky-high standard he had set for himself over the previous half-decade as a perennial MVP contender. This season appears to be a return to that status, an emphatic reminder of Freeman's well-earned reputation as one of the best hitters of his generation.
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs OF
There's a slew of candidates to consider in this third slot, including several more pairs of teammates beyond Ohtani and Freeman: Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado in San Diego, Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo with Arizona, or Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor on the Mets. Ginormous young Nationals slugger James Wood is also making a strong case to be considered.
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But if we are simply identifying which individual has made the biggest all-around impact thus far — regardless of how likely it is to sustain over the course of 162 games — PCA is the objectively correct answer. As baseball's best outfielder and a dynamo on the bases, Crow-Armstrong's unexpected power surge has culminated in full-blown star level production for the 23-year-old. And even with another superstar in the outfield with him in Kyle Tucker who also warrants a mention in this race, I'll give PCA the nod at this juncture.
AL Cy Young
1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers LHP
Statistically, Skubal didn't hold that much of an edge over some of the other aces in the mix though his first 10 starts. Then he went out and delivered one of the most dominant pitching performances we've seen in quite some time — a 94-pitch, 13 strikeout shutout of the rival Guardians punctuated by a 102.6 mph fastball — and launched out to a comfortable lead on the fWAR leaderboard, earning him the top spot on the ballot at this stage. He's vying to become the first pitcher since Jacob deGrom in 2018-2019 and first AL hurler since Pedro Martinez in 1999-2000 to claim consecutive Cy Young Awards. I like his chances.
2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox LHP
The Red Sox might be a mess around him right now — Boston has lost five out of Crochet's past seven starts after winning four of his first five — but the hard-throwing southpaw has delivered on the hype that surrounded him following his offseason trade and subsequent extension to anchor the Red Sox rotation for years to come. Crochet has done his part; now it's on his team to get its act together so as to not waste the opportunity to have Crochet take the ball in the postseason.
3. Max Fried, Yankees LHP
A fitting contrast to Crochet's tough luck in his first year with Boston, Fried has also been marvelous in his debut season as a Yankee but his team has consistently backed him up along the way. New York is 10-1 in Fried starts. Consistent run support and a solid bullpen have contributed to that gaudy record, but Fried has been terrific in pinstripes on his own. His 1.29 ERA is the lowest mark of all qualified starting pitchers.
NL Cy Young
1. Dodgers RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
It's not like Yamamoto disappointed as a rookie — he had a 3.00 ERA in 18 regular-season starts and was mostly excellent during L.A.'s run to the World Series. But this version of Yamamoto — the one with surgical fastball command and multiple devastating secondary pitches, the one with the lowest ERA (1.97) among all qualified NL starting pitchers — is what the Dodgers paid $325 million for. And on a pitching staff ravaged by injuries otherwise, the value of his dependable dominance once a week cannot be overstated. This dude is the real deal.
2. Paul Skenes, Pirates RHP
He's not racking up quite as many strikeouts as he did during his historic rookie season, but Skenes has generally been every bit as effective otherwise and continues to look like one of the best pitchers on the planet, if not the best. An expanded arsenal with increased sweeper and change-up usage has been deployed masterfully by Skenes, as he has limited hard contact and consistently pitched deep into games to fulfill his responsibilities as Pittsburgh's ace. We are watching one of the greatest starts to a career ever for a starting pitcher, and we should not take that for granted.
3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies RHP
Offseason acquisition Jesús Luzardo has certainly made quite an impression since joining the Phillies and belongs in this conversation as well, but Wheeler remains the gold standard atop this rotation. At 35 years old, Wheeler currently has a career-high strikeout rate and career-low walk-rate. With Chris Sale finally claiming his first career Cy Young Award last season, Wheeler is now the best active pitcher without such hardware. Let's see if he can change that this year.
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AL Rookie of the Year
1. Jacob Wilson, Athletics SS
Wilson is basically doing a Luis Arraez impression except he's right-handed, has a tick more power and plays a pretty good shortstop. In other words: he's a ridiculously good player, yet also one of the more unique ones in the sport. We'll see if Wilson can sustain this level of production if he continues to swing at absolutely everything and rarely draw walks. It's plausible that pitchers could find a way to neutralize him more effectively over time but as with Arraez, it's also possible Wilson is that much of an outlier that he can continue to excel with this hyper-aggressive approach and otherworldly bat-to-ball skills.
2. Shane Smith, White Sox RHP
The first overall pick from Milwaukee in last year's Rule 5 Draft, Smith has been a fantastic success story amid another difficult year for the South Siders. His stuff is legit — both his four-seam fastball and change-up have played as plus pitches — and the results have been good (2.68 ERA). Smith's control, however, has been iffy at best along the way. Should Smith dial the command in more consistently, he'll project as a solid mid-rotation option for Chicago. For a rookie and Rule 5 pick, though, it's been an undeniable win so far.
3. Carlos Narváez, Red Sox C
While we wait patiently for the arrival of top outfield prospect Roman Anthony to provide a boost to Boston during this woeful recent stretch and perhaps make a run at this award on his own, let's shine some light on what Narváez has done for the Red Sox as their primary catcher. That the 26-year-old is already a sterling defender behind the dish as a rookie is plenty impressive on its own, but he's also been one of Boston's best bats lately. After starting the season with a .500 OPS through his first 13 games, Narváez has hit .337/.404/.561 with five home runs over his past 29 contests and now ranks as one of the most productive rookie hitters in baseball.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Drake Baldwin, Braves C
With Sean Murphy still entrenched as the starter behind the plate for the Braves, Baldwin hasn't had quite as much playing time as some of the other contenders for this award. But his impact offensively when given opportunities should not be ignored. Baldwin's 154 wRC+ isn't just tops among all NL rookies, it ranks ninth among all NL hitters with at least 100 plate appearances this season. Atlanta has to find a way to get his bat in the lineup more oft
2. Ben Casparius, Dodgers RHP
A different Dodgers right-hander may have entered the season as the favorite to win this award in Roki Sasaki, but Sasaki's command struggles and now injury concerns have removed him from the conversation as a viable candidate. Instead, Casparius has quietly ascended the hierarchy of Dodgers arms and is making his own case as one of the NL's best rookies. Casparius' ability to cover multiple innings in relief, including in high-leverage situations, has been a boon for manager Dave Roberts. His standard stats (2.80 ERA in 35.1 IP, 41 K, 6 BB) are plenty impressive on the surface (2.80 ERA), but his tremendous underlying metrics (87th percentile whiff-rate, 96th percentile hard-hit rate against) do an even better job conveying just how good he's been.
3. Chad Patrick, Brewers RHP
As a 26-year-old righty without the typical high-end stuff of a top-level pitching prospect, Patrick certainly wasn't on the ROY radar entering the season but has emerged as an ultra-dependable starter for a Brewers pitching staff in dire need of quality innings. Patrick's 57 2/3 frames rank second among all rookie hurlers, and his 2.97 ERA isn't too shabby, either. It's not especially sexy, but being a reliable starter as a rookie is no small feat, and Patrick has been just that.