
Gold falls on firmer US dollar and rising trade optimism
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $3,350.08 per ounce, as of 0820 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $3,351.70.
The U.S dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab rebounded from more than a two-week low, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose.
A resurgence in risk appetite driven by optimism over potential tariff negotiations, and better-than-expected jobless claims reinforcing the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates, is pressuring gold, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades.
"There is an element of uncertainty that still lingers... with a strong support around $3,300, I see the potential for gold prices to rise should new episodes of volatility be triggered," he said.
The European Commission said on Thursday a negotiated trade solution with the United States is within reach - while EU members voted to approve counter-tariffs on 93 billion euros ($109 billion) of U.S. goods in case the talks collapse.
Data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to stable labour market conditions.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump pressed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates in a tense visit to the U.S. central bank on Thursday, less than a week before the next rate-setting meeting where policymakers are expected to hold interest rates steady.
Markets are pricing in a potential rate cut in September.
Gold typically performs well during periods of uncertainty and in low-interest-rate environments.
Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.5% to $38.90 per ounce, but was on track for a weekly gain, up about 1.9% so far. Platinum lost 0.6% to $1,400.02 and palladium slipped 0.7% to $1,219.20.
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Sika first half results hit by dollar weakness
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Reuters
14 minutes ago
- Reuters
Dollar shedding its tariff risk premium
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Others focused on the impact of likely exaggerated European investment and spending pledges. But something else seemed to be stirring in a broader worldwide dollar rally that went way beyond the euro, a possible unwinding of the risk premium that had been built into the currency since April to account for Washington's seemingly chaotic tariff swipes and possible reactions. With EU, Japan and UK deals in the bag and intense talks under way with China, Canada and Mexico, Washington has essentially defused tensions surrounding the looming August 1 trade deal deadline. And the agreements completed now cover a combined 60% of all U.S. trade. The China standoff will likely rumble on but negotiations are under way in Stockholm and standing pacts will likely be extended, with Beijing's hand weakened by trade deals elsewhere. What's more, the Trump administration appears to have successfully managed all this with a minimum of retaliation and limited economic damage to date. The effective U.S. tariff rate is set to end somewhere between 15% and 20%. That may be a possible drag on growth at home and abroad, but tariff income is flattering U.S. government revenues at a relatively low cost. Any U.S. consumer inflation fallout coming down the pike will keep the Federal Reserve cautious for longer about interest rate cuts - but that too may be a lift for the dollar if it's more responsive to the rates picture again. "In terms of domestic political dynamics, Donald Trump is winning the trade war," AXA Group Chief Economist Gilles Moec wrote on Monday. Assuming this is the beginning of the end of the year's big tariff shock, businesses and markets may finally have some degree of certainty about the months ahead and allow a lot of paused planning and activity to resume - even if at measurably higher costs. 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And the dollar, the one clear loser all year, is clawing back ground. Crucially, its recent separation from transatlantic yield trends is slowly being re-established. After April 2, the 2-year yield gap boomed about 40 basis points wider in favor of U.S. Treasuries and remains more than 20 bp wider since that day. But rather than follow that gap in lockstep as usual, the dollar went the other way and lost over 6% - a critical reflection of a building risk premium amid foreign investor concern, hedging and capital switching. Selling has petered out in recent weeks, and Monday's 1% dollar index surge was another indication of a more positive bias that could persist with the big yield premium so large. Whether a recovering dollar is what Trump actually wants is a different question. The running assumption all year has been that Trump favored a weaker dollar as a way of narrowing U.S. deficits and boosting exports, and Trump addressed the issue on Friday. "It doesn't sound good, but you make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker dollar - not a weak dollar but a weaker dollar - than you do with a strong dollar," he said. If the dollar now shows signs of bouncing back sharply, political pressure on the Fed to counter it with much lower interest rates will remain intense. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters -- Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn. Plus, sign up for my weekday newsletter, Morning Bid U.S.


Reuters
14 minutes ago
- Reuters
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