Gold prices rally 30% to hit ₹1 lakh since last Akshaya Tritiya. What level can they hit by next year?
Gold Price Outlook: A sharp 30% rally in gold prices since last Akshaya Tritiya to levels above ₹ 1 lakh has sparked a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out) among investors in other asset classes.
Gold prices, which were trading at ₹ 73,240 per 10 grams on last Akshaya Tritiya, are now in the range of ₹ 94,000–95,000 per 10 grams, after briefly touching the coveted ₹ 1 lakh mark. Gold has been on a bull run since mid-2024, as increased uncertainty around policies and an uncertain economic situation ahead for the major economies has spurred gold buying.
According to data from Ventura Securities, gold has delivered consistently positive returns over the past eight years, with prices increasing during every Akshaya Tritiya period since 2018.
Year Price ( ₹ /10g) Return (%) 2025 ₹ 95,900 31% 2024 ₹ 73,240 22% 2023 ₹ 59,845 18% 2022 ₹ 50,808 7% 2021 ₹ 47,676 2% 2020 ₹ 46,527 47% 2019 ₹ 31,729 1% 2018 ₹ 31,534 9% 2017 ₹ 28,873 -3% 2016 ₹ 29,805 11% 2015 ₹ 26,936 -11%
Source: Ventura Securities
With Akshaya Tritiya tithi around the corner — when purchasing gold is believed to bring prosperity, good luck, and lasting wealth — investors are facing a dilemma about whether to buy gold at such high levels.
But if one goes by the target prices of analysts, buying gold on Akshaya Tritiya may spell more gains for the investors.
Analysts anticipate gold prices to trade in the range of ₹ 1,04,000 to ₹ 1,10,000 by next Akshaya Tritiya, which will fall on April 19, 2026. Gold vs Silver vs Sensex
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP Research - Non Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said, "If we look at this table, it clearly states that investment in gold pays good returns. Hence, one should make investments in gold from a long term perspective."
From a one-year perspective, gold hitting $4,000/ounce in the international markets and ₹ 1,10,000/10 grams in the Indian markets looks very much likely, Mallya opined.
Echoing positive sentiments on gold, Ventura Securities said that it sees considerable upside potential should geopolitical tensions escalate or global economic conditions deteriorate and US Federal Reserve cuts rates meaningfully.
"Gold prices could rally significantly, possibly reaching $3,600–$3,700 per ounce, or ₹ 1,01,000– ₹ 1,04,000 per 10 grams by next Akshaya Tritiya. These projections reflect gold's enduring appeal as a safe haven in times of heightened uncertainty," Ventura Securities said.
However, it added that gold prices could retreat in case the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions get prolonged, there is a slowdown in central bank purchases or an unexpectedly strong US economic performance. In such a scenario, it expects gold prices to correct to $3,000–$2,900 per ounce, or ₹ 90,000– ₹ 87,000 per 10 grams.
Even as gold price outlook remains solid, buying at such elevated levels also exposes investors to risks, making them question whether there is merit in investing in gold at current prices.
To this, analysts responded that long-term investors should consider buying on dips once gold corrects meaningfully, as the trend in yellow metal is likely to remain firm.
Gold is likely to stay strong for the foreseeable future, said Sandip Raichura, CEO - Retail Broking and Distribution, Director - PL Broking and Distribution. "We believe all dips will invite buying by ETFs and central banks and this trend is unlikely to reverse near term and therefore gold will maintain its upward trajectory," Raichura added.
Mallya also recommended a buying-on-dips strategy for long-term investors to take the benefit of the value average for higher returns. One should wait for meaningful correction towards ₹ 85,000/10 grams for accumulation, he opined.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
First Published: 28 Apr 2025, 06:30 PM IST
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