Mint Explainer: Opinion trading apps win relief—but is it game on or just extra time?

Mint

18-05-2025

A fresh legal twist has kept India's opinion trading apps alive—at least for now.
On Saturday, the Chhattisgarh High Court granted interim relief to platforms such as Probo and SportsBaazi, allowing them to operate nationwide while ordering geo-blocking only within the state. The court flagged procedural lapses, noting that the state's blanket ban lacked prior notice or a hearing.
This comes even as another court—Punjab and Haryana High Court—hears a public interest litigation (PIL) seeking a complete ban on such platforms, alleging they promote online betting and misrepresent themselves as skill-based games.
Mint explains what opinion trading platforms are, how they operate, why courts are cracking down, and what this legal relief means for the industry.
Also read: Betting ads mushroom in regulatory grey zone
What are opinion trading platforms?
Platforms like Probo, TradeX, MPL Opinio, Trago, and SportsBaazi let users stake real money on real-world outcomes—be it election results, cricket scores, or film releases.
These are framed as 'yes/no" binary questions—such as 'Will India win the next T20 match?" or 'Will XYZ film cross ₹100 crore in its first weekend?"—where users buy or sell positions based on market odds.
Also read: Mint Explainer: Why is IPL 2025 plastered with fantasy gaming and 'pan masala' ads?
While the platforms claim their games are skill-based, regulators and courts are still undecided—raising concerns that these mimic gambling more than gaming or investing.
What is the market size and investor interest?
Despite the legal ambiguity, the opinion trading space is buzzing. According to industry estimates, over 50 million users now engage with such platforms, generating nearly ₹50,000 crore in annual transaction volumes, with projected revenues of ₹1,000 crore for FY25.
Major platforms like Probo have raised $28 million from prominent investors including Peak XV Partners, Elevation Capital, and The Fundamentum Partnership, while TradeX counts Y Combinator among its backers. SportsBaazi, originally a fantasy sports operator, has also forayed into opinion trading, reflecting the sector's growing traction.
However, funding has slowed. Per Tracxn, 2022 saw $26.6 million raised across six rounds; in 2023, it crashed to just $154,000—a sign of growing investor wariness amid tightening regulation.
While currently led by 5–6 dominant players, a wave of startups is entering the fray—particularly targeting users in Tier 2 and 3 cities. However, with Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) distancing itself and courts now questioning the legal basis of these platforms, the industry's future remains in a regulatory grey zone.
What did the Chhattisgarh HC say?
The Chhattisgarh High Court provided interim relief to SportsBaazi and Probo by allowing them to operate outside the state while directing them to geo-block access within Chhattisgarh.
This decision came after the platforms challenged a directive from the state's Inspector General of Police, which ordered telecom and internet service providers (ISPs) to block access to these platforms under Section 79(3)(b) of the IT Act and local gambling laws.
The block order was issued by Chhattisgarh Police, but applied to the whole of India, which the petitioner argued is beyond the state's jurisdiction.
The court observed that the platforms were blocked without any prior notice, hearing, or formal complaint — pointing to possible procedural lapses in the enforcement action.
What are the platforms saying?
Both Probo and SportsBaazi maintain that they are simply technology platforms, hosting skill-based games like Rummy.
They also argued that, as intermediaries, they are protected under Section 79 of the IT Act, which shields platforms from liability for user actions unless they're directly involved in illegal activity. They claimed they should have been given notice and a chance to respond before being blocked — as required under the IT Rules.
They also claim they were not given a fair chance to respond to the ban, violating due process laid out in the IT Rules.
What does Sebi think?
These platforms had hoped to be brought under the regulatory ambit of Sebi, similar to how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates prediction markets in the US. However, those hopes were dashed when Sebi made it clear that opinion trading doesn't fall within its jurisdiction.
While these platforms claim to be skill-based and seek to distinguish themselves from gambling, stock trading, or fantasy sports, regulators remain unconvinced.
Also read: Sebi's warning leaves opinion trading apps in limbo
'They were hoping to be regulated by Sebi. But now it looks like MeitY is the next possible regulator. Their attempt to carve out a new financial category is starting to look shaky," said an industry executive familiar with the matter, requesting anonymity.
Meanwhile, in court, authorities have argued that these platforms operate more like betting apps, relying largely on chance rather than any demonstrable skill.
What's happening in other courts?
Recently, a PIL was also filed in the Punjab and Haryana High Court seeking a ban on opinion trading platforms, alleging that they misrepresent themselves as skill-based games while effectively operating as gambling services.
The court has issued notices to the central government, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), and Sebi, indicating a broader legal momentum against such platforms.
This mainly concerns the new Haryana Prevention of Public Gambling Act (HPPGA), 2025, which has triggered much of the ongoing litigation.
'The new Haryana legislation is very ambiguous— which is why all this litigation. It fails to clearly classify skill-based games like fantasy sports and opinion trading. While it bans games of chance and exempts skill-based ones, it doesn't specify where these platforms fit," said another industry executive familiar with the matter.
What is the path ahead for these startups?
The industry is at a crossroads. Calls for self-regulation are growing, but without clarity from courts or regulators, these platforms operate in a precarious space—much like crypto exchanges did until 2022.
Until a dedicated regulator steps in or lawmakers provide clarity, opinion trading platforms will remain legally exposed—thriving on user demand, but shadowed by regulatory risk.
Also read: Gaming or Gambling? Young Indians are getting addicted to 'opinion trading', and losing huge sums