Florida's pandemic housing boom is over. Are we headed toward a crash?
'People were getting used to making huge profits on their houses in a short period of time,' said Michael Wyckoff managing broker of Engel & Völkers Madeira Beach. 'That's slowing down.'
The number of homes sold in the Tampa Bay metro area remained flat year over year, but dropped about 20% since 2022, from when the market was booming. That's according to preliminary April data from Homes.com, a subsidiary of the real estate firm, CoStar Group.
Counties that were badly hit by Hurricanes Helene and Milton faced even greater losses. Since last year, sales decreased by 8% in Hillsborough County and almost 13% in Pinellas, according to April data from Suncoast Association of Realtors.
Homes are taking longer to sell. The median time a home spends on market is now between 70 and 85 days. Though that's on par with what we've seen historically, Michelle Rumore, senior director of market analytics for CoStar said it's a far cry from the Covid-19 era, when homes stayed on the market for about 40-50 days.
More available homes and fewer interested buyers has caused prices across Tampa Bay to decrease for four consecutive months. The median home price now hovers around $365,000, according to Homes.com. That's almost a 3% decrease from this time last year and about a 5% decrease from June 2024 when prices peaked at $385,000.
Prices for the country as a whole are actually rising slightly. April saw a 1.3% year over year increase, marking four months of price growth, Homes.com data shows.
Florida's housing market is unique because so many people moved here during Covid-19, said Rumore. But now that migration has slowed down, 'the rubber band effect is just a little more apparent here than in other markets,' she said.
Even though prices are coming down slightly, that's not enough to entice buyers who are facing higher mortgage rates, insurance costs and overall economic uncertainty, said Lei Wedge, professor of Finance at the University of South Florida's Muma College of Business.
Wyckoff said during the pandemic, interest rates were artificially lowered to boost the economy. He believes that buyers will eventually adjust to the new normal.
'If you were to look over the last 50 years, 7% is not a terrible mortgage rate,' he said.
Though the market has cooled, that doesn't necessarily mean a crash is on the horizon.
What's unfolding now is a 'slow correction,' Wedge said. That's different from the major slashes in prices that took place after the 2008 financial crisis.
She believes there may be a slight oversupply of housing in the local market right now.
'You had all the builders jumping in when the market was hot,' she said. 'By the time they're done building, we don't have as many people moving to Tampa.'
The good news is, this gives buyers a bit more leverage. Wyckoff said he's seeing more sellers agree to cover closing costs, inspections, repairs and other concessions.
'We're in a more balanced market now,' he said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
American Press
3 hours ago
- American Press
Economic growth forecast for SW La.
All forecasts for Southwest Louisiana show economic growth — some areas faster than others — over the next year. Much will depend on new development projects and the speed of startup, according to Dan Groft, director of the H.C. Drew Center for Business and Economic Analysis at McNeese State University. Groft — who spoke Tuesday to members of the Kiwanis Club of Lake Charles — said Southwest Louisiana has the highest gross domestic product per capita in the state. 'What we produce in terms of output — even though it doesn't take a lot of labor per capita — is higher and that's mostly due to Cameron,' he said. 'Cameron has 4,600 people and they produce tons of manufacturing down there … and they export way more than they import.' Calcasieu also remains the gaming capital of the state. 'When you look at total adjusted revenues, we're up pre-COVID levels even with Horseshoe (then Isle of Capri) being closed for a good bit of that time,' he said. 'If you look at gaming per admission, revenue per admission, how much each person spends, we are way above 2020.' Total employment, however, remains very low by historical standards. Calcasieu has 13,000 fewer jobs than it had in February 2021. 'We are by far the lowest area in the state,' he said. 'We had COVID, then Laura and we have not recovered since. We knew some of the construction was going to come down because all those plants down in Cameron were finished. We didn't predict COVID.' The hospitality and leisure industry also took a major hit in 2020. 'It was going up, then comes COVID and Laura,' he said. 'That was unexpected so we took a double hit when you count hospitality and construction on unemployment in this area.' He said construction jobs remain low but when new LNG facilities reach Final Investment Decision, those will come. That will be followed by permanent jobs for people to run the facilities when they are complete. The rest of the employment fields 'are not too bad.' 'When you start looking at jobs and looking at your economy, you have to break it down,' Groft said. 'If I took out construction and looked at how we were growing I'd say it's not great but it's not terrible, either. It's kinda flat.' The good news, he said, is the region's population is growing. 'We are having an increase in domestic migration in Calcasieu, Cameron and Jeff Davis. Calcasieu people are starting to move back. We have grown faster than the state has the past two years so we're doing OK.' Parish sales tax collections are also up. Louisiana economy Louisiana was one of the slower states to get back to pre-COVID employment levels. 'We were hit hard with leisure and hospitality — that's big in New Orleans and that's big here — because we had some devastating disasters here and New Orleans and Houma had Hurricane Ida. We're still lagging behind some of our southern peers, but we're making progress. We still have a long way to go because we lost a lot of people and we lost a lot of jobs.' The larger employers in the state are in the fields of trade, transportation and utilities. 'That's a big sector. That includes retail trade, wholesale trade, jobs where you need a lot of people,' Groft said. 'Other things like manufacturing produce a ton of output but low employment. It has 18 percent of total output, but it's only about 7 percent of total employment.' About 11 percent of the state's workers are employed in the leisure and hospitality fields. 'When you look at other industries, some of them have been pretty flat,' Groft said. 'We need people. We need the workman to work jobs, build things, perform services.' Louisiana has the third lowest median household income in the nation. 'The problem is we have a very high poverty rate,' he said. 'We're a poor state and we have a very unhealthy population and that can hurt economic growth, as well. Lake Charles has a 17.8 percent poverty rate.' But Groft does have good news: Louisiana is finally seeing population growth, it offers a low cost of living and electricity rates are far lower here than the national average. National economy 'The national economy has actually been doing pretty good since 2020,' Groft said. 'We've had pretty general growth over the past fews; we had a couple of dips because all of these companies were stocking up on imports — imports don't increase gross domestic product — but then we saw a quick turnaround in 2025.' Total nonfarm employment is also growing each month. 'We are growing, we are not falling. And earnings are outpacing inflation.' The national economy is projected to grow about 2.5 percent, he said.
NBC News
5 hours ago
- NBC News
U.S. national debt reaches a record $37 trillion, the Treasury Department reports
The U.S. government's gross national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, a record number that highlights the accelerating debt on America's balance sheet and increased cost pressures on taxpayers. The $37 trillion update is found in the latest Treasury Department report issued Tuesday which logs the nation's daily finances. The national debt eclipsed $37 trillion years sooner than pre-pandemic projections. The Congressional Budget Office's January 2020 projections had gross federal debt eclipsing $37 trillion after fiscal year 2030. But the debt grew faster than expected because of a multi-year COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020 that shut down much of the U.S. economy, where the federal government borrowed heavily under then-President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden to stabilize the national economy and support a recovery. And now, more government spending has been approved after Trump signed into law Republicans' tax cut and spending legislation earlier this year. The law set to add $4.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. Chair and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, Michael Peterson said in a statement that government borrowing puts upward pressure on interest rates, 'adding costs for everyone and reducing private sector investment. Within the federal budget, the debt crowds out important priorities and creates a damaging cycle of more borrowing, more interest costs, and even more borrowing.' Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution said Congress has a major role in setting in motion spending and revenue policy and the result of the Republicans' tax law 'means that we're going to borrow a lot over the course of 2026, we're going to borrow a lot over the course of 2027, and it's just going to keep going.' The Government Accountability Office outlines some of the impacts of rising government debt on Americans — including higher borrowing costs for things like mortgages and cars, lower wages from businesses having less money available to invest, and more expensive goods and services. Peterson points out how the trillion-dollar milestones are 'piling up at a rapid rate.' The U.S. hit $34 trillion in debt in January 2024, $35 trillion in July 2024 and $36 trillion in November 2024. 'We are now adding a trillion more to the national debt every 5 months,' Peterson said. 'That's more than twice as fast as the average rate over the last 25 years.' The Joint Economic Committee estimates at the current average daily rate of growth an increase of another trillion dollars to the debt would be reached in approximately 173 days. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said in a statement that 'hopefully this milestone is enough to wake up policymakers to the reality that we need to do something, and we need to do it quickly.'
UPI
6 hours ago
- UPI
Ex-Blueacorn exec admits to COVID-era small business loan scheme
Aug. 12 (UPI) -- An ex-financial executive is likely to spend years behind bars over wire fraud charges in an alleged pandemic-era financial scheme to defraud the federal government's small business loan program. The U.S. Department of Justice said Monday that Nathan Reis, now of Rio Grande in Puerto Rico by way of Arizona, pleaded guilty in Texas to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud for his role as company chief at Scottsdale-based lender Blueacorn. The plea was tied to attempts to fraudulently obtain relief money via the U.S. Small Business Administration's Paycheck Protection Program during the COVID-19 pandemic. "This defendant had the opportunity to help small businesses overcome tremendous financial hardships during a time of national crisis but instead exploited the system to line his own pockets with taxpayer money," Nancy E. Larson, the acting U.S. attorney for the northern district in Texas, said in a statement. Reis, 47, created the venture in 2020 with his wife, Stephanie Hockridge, a former KNXV television anchor in Phoenix, purportedly to help small businesses and owners to obtain the federal government's PPP loans. "Blueacorn connects technology and financial expertise to help small businesses, independent contractors, self-employed individuals, and gig workers with their financial needs," the company's website reads. In June, Hockridge was found guilty of conspiracy but acquitted on multiple counts of wire fraud. His guilty plea was filed after an initial plea of not guilty. The SBA's Paycheck Protection Program was part of the 2020 CARES Act singed by then-U.S. President Donald Trump during the virus outbreak in his first term. It was targeted to infuse money into small businesses to bankroll payroll and other business-related expenses. According to court documents, Reis conspired with business associates to "submit false and fraudulent PPP loan applications." It included "fabricating documents that falsified income and payroll figures in order to receive loan funds for which they were not eligible." Federal officials contend that Blueacorn was the vehicle through which Reis and co-conspirators submitted an undisclosed number of fraudulent PPP loan applications that, according to the Justice Department, "they knew contained materially false information to make more money." "Reis and others fabricated documents, including tax documents and bank statements," the deparment added. "As part of the conspiracy, Reis and his co-conspirators charged borrower's fees based on a percentage of the funds received." The SBA's well-intended PPP opened the door to waves of other similar acts of fraud. "During a national emergency, this defendant exploited a taxpayer-funded program that individuals and small businesses desperately needed to survive," acting Assistant U.S. Attorney General Matthew Galeotti in DOJ's criminal division, said in a release. The fraud section at Justice has seized nearly $80 million and prosecuted more than 200 defendants in over 130 separate PPP-related criminal cases. In January, seven people were charged by a federal grand jury in a multi-state conspiracy that defrauded more than a half-billion dollars in over 8,000 bogus pandemic-era tax returns. "Reis and others exploited a program meant to keep small businesses afloat during the pandemic," stated Assistant Director Jose A. Perez of the FBI's Criminal Investigative Division. Any individual with info on COVID-related fraud attempts may contact the department. Reis is schedule for sentencing November 21. He faces a max penalty of 20 years in prison contingent upon sentencing guidelines by a federal judge, and $250,000 in fines.
