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Minerals for muscle? Why Trump's Ukraine resources deal could be a sign of things to come

Minerals for muscle? Why Trump's Ukraine resources deal could be a sign of things to come

CNBC14-05-2025

A landmark resources deal between the U.S. and Ukraine is expected to lay the ground for further so-called "minerals for muscle" agreements.
Washington and Kyiv signed a highly anticipated minerals deal earlier this month. The agreement, which has since been ratified by Ukrainian lawmakers, is designed to deepen economic ties, bolster Ukraine's reconstruction and position the country as a supplier of strategically important minerals to the U.S.
Long coveted by U.S. President Donald Trump, the partnership followed months of tense negotiations and came more than three years since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ro Dhawan, CEO of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), a trade body representing roughly one-third of the global industry, said the U.S.-Ukraine deal is not the first and certainly won't be the last bilateral agreement where minerals and geopolitics mix so closely.
"I think we're likely to see more outreach to producer countries to make deals which could take the form of what I have previously called 'minerals for muscle.' So, 'give me your minerals and I'll give you security,' or other forms of trade agreement," Dhawan told CNBC by video call.
For instance, ICMM's Dhawan said he could "absolutely imagine" a deal between the U.S. and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has the world's largest reserves of cobalt, in the near future.
Natural resources could also play a pivotal role in the thawing of "pretty frosty" diplomatic ties between the U.S. and South Africa, Dhawan said, as well as the U.S. and Canada.
"We're at a turning point in the way minerals are a part of the global conversation. We've seen the first act, probably, with Ukraine, and I think there are a few more twists and turns to come in the way that this now starts to take shape," he added.
Critical minerals refer to a subset of materials considered essential to the energy transition. These minerals, which tend to have a high risk of supply chain disruption, include metals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements.
China is the undisputed leader of the critical minerals supply chain, accounting for roughly 60% of the world's production of rare earth minerals and materials. U.S. officials have previously warned that this poses a strategic challenge amid the pivot to low-carbon energy sources.
Heidi Crebo-Rediker, a senior fellow in the Center for Geoeconomic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S. think tank, said Washington and Beijing's geopolitical rivalry has put critical minerals at the center of the U.S. national security agenda.
Assuming they are commercially recoverable, Crebo-Rediker said Ukraine's vast reserves of critical minerals and rare earth elements could "provide a future potential secure supply chain of many materials the United States needs."
Timothy Puko, director of commodities at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, said he was "a little bit skeptical" about the prospect of a wave of bilateral "minerals for muscle" agreements.
"There's certainly some truth to it. I think that's what you're seeing in Ukraine. I think that Kinshasa is very clearly trying to pursue that right now, with their cobalt-copper situation and the [Rwandan-backed] M23 rebels," Puko told CNBC by video call.
Aside from Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, however, Puko said he was "hard-pressed" to foresee any further agreements. Canada, Australia, Indonesia and several mineral-rich Latin America countries would all be unlikely to pursue minerals for muscle-type deals with the U.S., he added.
"Outside of Ukraine and DRC, and possibly not even DRC, no other country right now really wants to trade away all that midstream business. Resource nationalism is the name of the game right now and the trend is really the opposite," Puko said.
"There's definitely horse-trading to be done here. It's a huge geopolitical issue. I'm sure it's coming up right now in the ongoing bilateral trade talks but there are huge barriers to replicating what Ukraine is trying to do with a lot of other countries."
Trump's trade tariff policy and repeated calls to make Canada the 51st state has strained diplomatic ties between the neighboring countries and fueled a swell of national pride and anger at the U.S.
Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told Trump at the White House earlier this month that his country is "not for sale" — and "won't be for sale ever."
Trump replied: "Never say never."
Heather Exner-Pirot, director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, a public policy think tank based in Ottawa, said Canada does not need a minerals for muscle agreement with the U.S.
"What we need is more certainty in our trade relationship. That is the biggest hurdle right now to reshoring mineral production and processing to North America in order to combat Chinese manipulation of global mineral markets," Exner-Pirot told CNBC via email.
Canada and the U.S. have developed interdependently over the course of 150 years and through world wars, Exner-Pirot said, noting that the countries are each another's largest suppliers and destinations of mineral exports.
What's more, Exner-Pirot said Canada and the U.S. already collaborate in both NATO and the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). A binational organization between Canada and the U.S., NORAD is primarily responsible for aerospace control and maritime warning in the defense of North America.

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Russia launches another large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, killing 3 and wounding 13
Russia launches another large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, killing 3 and wounding 13

Los Angeles Times

time22 minutes ago

  • Los Angeles Times

Russia launches another large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, killing 3 and wounding 13

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How viral images are shaping views of L.A.'s immigration showdown
How viral images are shaping views of L.A.'s immigration showdown

Yahoo

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  • Yahoo

How viral images are shaping views of L.A.'s immigration showdown

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It's 'adding ammo to ICE's justification,' one poster said, attaching a screenshot of a Homeland Security post showing masked protesters with Mexican flags. Many accounts, knowingly or unknowingly, shared images that warped the reality of what was happening on the ground. An X account with 388,000 followers called US Homeland Security News, which is not affiliated with DHS but paid for one of X's 'verified' blue check marks, posted a photo of bricks that it said had been ordered to be 'used by Democrat militants against ICE agents and staff!! It's Civil War!!' The photo actually originated on the website of a Malaysian construction-supply company. The post has nevertheless been viewed more than 800,000 times. On Sunday night, California Gov. Gavin Newsom's X account tried to combat some of the misinformation directly, saying a viral video post being passed around as evidence of the day's chaos was actually five years old. 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On YouTube, Damon Heller, who comments on police helicopter footage and scanner calls under the name Smoke N' Scan, streamed the clashes on Sunday for nearly 12 hours. Jeremy Lee Quinn, a photographer who shares protest footage to his social media followers, posted to Instagram on Saturday a video of protesters cheering from a bridge as officers tried to extinguish a burning police vehicle. Quinn, who also documented Black Lives Matter marches and the U.S. Capitol riots, said viewers on the left and right treat viral videos like weapons in their arsenal. Far-left viewers might take away from the videos ideas for militant tactics to use in future protests, he said, while far-right viewers will promote the videos to suggest the other side craves more violent crime. Either way, his material gets seen - including through reposts by groups such as the LibsOfReddit subreddit, which shares screenshots mocking liberal views on undocumented immigrants and transgender people. 'You end up with a far-right ecosystem that thrives on these viral moments,' Quinn said. As short-form video and social media platforms increasingly become many Americans' news sources of choice, experts worry they could also amp up the fear and outrage engendered by polarizing events. The fragmentation of social media and the attention-chasing machinery of its recommendation algorithms helps ensure that 'there are a lot of people talking past each other,' said Northeastern's Edelson, not seeing one another's content or 'even aware of the facts that are relevant to the other side.' Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, said videos can play a uniquely forceful role in shaping people's reactions to current events because they 'encapsulate the emotion of the moment.' 'There's a heavy dose of misinformation,' he added. 'And, you know, people just end up getting angrier and angrier.' 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Donald Trump is front and center for Army's big DC birthday parade
Donald Trump is front and center for Army's big DC birthday parade

USA Today

time30 minutes ago

  • USA Today

Donald Trump is front and center for Army's big DC birthday parade

Donald Trump is front and center for Army's big DC birthday parade Trump is poised to be president during the 250th anniversary of the nation's founding, the FIFA World Cup in 2026 and the LA Summer Olympics in 2028. Show Caption Hide Caption Military equipment headed to DC ahead of Trump's birthday parade Battle tanks, fighting vehicles and infantry carriers departed Texas for D.C. for President Trump's military parade. The June 14 parade reflects the president's vision of his role and of the nation's power. Some predict an inspiring moment of patriotism; others see an alarming echo of authoritarianism. WASHINGTON − Donald Trump loves a parade. Also palace-in-the-sky planes, gold decor in the Oval Office, the adulation of huge rallies, the company of kings (British, Saudi), and the general aura that surrounds power, wealth and royalty. The president's determination to stage a procession of America's troops and its military hardware, with 28 Abrams tanks thundering up Constitution Avenue in the nation's capital and 50 military helicopters thumping overhead, reflects his vision of his role and the nation he leads. Asserting sweeping and sometimes unprecedented powers for the presidency, he is commanding a go-it-alone United States, ready and willing to flex its muscle in the world. The last big national event, Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, was a demonstration of tradition and shared powers: The incoming president stood on the Capitol steps, the chief justice gave the oath, members of Congress and former presidents witnessed the peaceful transition of authority. Five months later, the celebration on June 14 marking the 250th anniversary of the founding of the U.S. Army will put Trump alone front and center. Also: The parade just happens to be taking place on his 79th birthday. Trump is the happy beneficiary of the calendar. He is poised to be president not only during the 250th anniversary of the nation's founding but also the FIFA World Cup in 2026 (co-hosted with Canada and Mexico) and the Summer Olympics in Los Angeles in 2028. The confluence of events is no coincidence, he suggests. "I have everything," he boasted at a Memorial Day event at Arlington Cemetery. "Amazing the way things work out. God did that." The good fortune of Trump's 2020 defeat Whether or not it was a case of divine intervention, Trump's electoral defeat in 2020 has, with the benefit of hindsight, turned out to be serendipitous for him. The four-year interregnum not only put him in a position to preside during historic and high-profile celebrations, but it also gave him a Democratic predecessor as a whipping boy when things go wrong. It also provided the opportunity for him to solidify control of the Republican Party and for supporters to create ambitious blueprints like Project 2025 to tap when he landed a second term. It even opened the door for the parade he had set his heart on when he watched French tanks roll down the Champs-Élysées in Paris on Bastille Day in 2017. "One of the greatest parades I've ever seen," he marveled, telling French President Emmanuel Macron he wanted to "top" it. During Trump's first term, though, the Pentagon resisted. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, a retired Marine Corps four-star general, objected to the idea as a politicization of the military. In 2020, when Trump pushed again despite concerns about the coronavirus pandemic, Mattis' successor, Mark Esper, arranged instead for an array of warplanes to fly down the East Coast in an "air parade." Now, Pete Hegseth, a Trump loyalist and former Fox News host, is leading the Defense Department. The Army's plans for a low-key birthday celebration of festivals, fun runs and a commemorative stamp have now been dramatically expanded to include what the White House might call a big, beautiful parade. The sight of more than 100 combat vehicles on the ground and dozens of vintage and modern warplanes in the air should be staggering. The troops plus 34 horses, two mules, a dog named Doc Holliday and some of the vehicles will start at the Pentagon in Virginia, cross Arlington Memorial Bridge, then head to the parade route along the National Mall, joined there by the tanks. Trump will be watching from a reviewing stand just south of the White House that is now being constructed for the occasion. Paratroopers from the Army's Golden Knights are set to parachute in, land on the Eclipse and present Trump with an American flag. The president will then preside over the enlistment and reenlistment of 250 soldiers. There will be fireworks. Is it inspiring or alarming? The United States has staged military parades before, of course. At the end of the Civil War, the bloodiest conflict in American history, the Grand Review of the Armies lasted two days and featured 145,000 soldiers from the victorious Union forces marching through Washington and sometimes breaking into song. President Andrew Johnson, who had been sworn in after Abraham Lincoln's assassination a month earlier, presided. During the Cold War, President Dwight D. Eisenhower, a retired five-star general and hero of World War II, had troops, tanks and warplanes in his inaugural parade. His successor, John F. Kennedy, included troops in his inaugural parade in 1961. The last major military parade in the capital was in 1991 to mark the end of the first Gulf War, when George H.W. Bush was president. But there is not much precedent in the United States for such a massive military parade in peacetime. Like many things involving Trump, reactions clash between those who predict a stirring moment of patriotism and those who see it as an alarming echo of authoritarianism. The ritualized display of armaments and troops is more routine in places like Russia, China and North Korea, where strongmen show their force to their own citizens and the world. In the USA, liberal and pro-democracy groups have declared a "No Kings" day of protests on June 14, with anti-Trump demonstrations planned in more than 1,500 communities across the country. Trump has never been shy about demanding attention and claiming credit for his presidential record, putting himself in the top rank of the 45 men who have held the job. In his State of the Union address in March, he said that "many" believed he had just recorded the most successful first month of any presidency − with George Washington in second place. Last month, on the facade of the Agriculture Department that faces the Mall, a huge banner of Trump's face was draped between the columns alongside one of Lincoln. By the way, that's the building where thousands of the troops who will be marching in the parade will bivouac, sleeping on cots and bringing their own sleeping bags. Agriculture employees have been directed to work from home for the first three weeks of the month to clear the way for them. $45 million? 'Peanuts,' Trump says The parade's price tag? The Army has estimated the cost at $30 million to $45 million, in addition to the promise to help the D.C. government deal with the aftermath. Huge steel plates are being embedded at some intersections to protect the asphalt, but at 140,000 pounds each, the Abrams battle tanks are expected to, well, leave an impression. That could add as much as an estimated $16 million. "Peanuts," Trump said of the cost on NBC's "Meet the Press" last month, "compared to the value of doing it."

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