Fed's Kugler Backs Holding Rates If Inflation Risks Persist
'Disinflation has slowed, and we are already seeing the effects of higher tariffs, which I expect will continue to raise inflation over 2025,' Kugler said Thursday in remarks prepared for an event at the Economic Club of New York. 'I see greater upside risks to inflation at this juncture and potential downside risks to employment and output growth down the road.'
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BBVA Argentina Announces Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results
BUENOS AIRES, August 20, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Banco BBVA Argentina S.A (NYSE; BYMA; MAE: BBAR; LATIBEX: XBBAR) ("BBVA Argentina" or "BBVA" or "the Bank") announced today its consolidated results for the second quarter (2Q25), ended on June 30, 2025. As of January 1, 2020, the Bank started to inform its inflation adjusted results pursuant to IAS 29 reporting. To facilitate comparison, figures of comparable quarters of 2024 and 2025 have been updated according to IAS 29 reporting to reflect the accumulated effect of inflation adjustment for each period up to June 30, 2025. 2Q25 & 1H25 Highlights BBVA Argentina's inflation-adjusted net income in 2Q25 was $59.6 billion, 31.1% lower than the $86.5 billion reported on the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), and 62.1% lower than the $157.4 billion reported on the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24). The 6 month accumulated net income for 2025 was $146.1 billion, 31.7% below the $213.8 billion reported in the same period of 2024. In 2Q25, BBVA Argentina posted an inflation adjusted average return on assets (ROAA) of 1.2% versus 2.0% the prior quarter, and an inflation adjusted average return on equity (ROAE) of 7.6% versus 11.4% the prior quarter. The six-month accumulated ROA for 2025 was 1.5% versus 3.0% in 2024, while the ROE was 9.6% versus 13.3% in 2024. The 2Q25 total NIM was 19.1% versus 19.2% in 1Q25. NIM in local currency was 21.7% and NIM in USD was 5.4%, the former remaining stable from 1Q25's 21.8% and the latter improving significantly from 3.9% in the prior quarter. In terms of activity, total consolidated financing to the private sector in 2Q25 totaled $11.3 trillion, increasing 15.7% in real terms compared to 1Q25, and 109.6% compared to 2Q24. In the quarter, the variation was driven by an overall growth in all lines, especially in prefinancing and financing of exports by 23.5%, in overdrafts by 34.6% and in other loans by 25.2%. BBVA's consolidated market share of private sector loans reached 11.61% as of 2Q25, gaining 35 bps quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), and 107 bps year-over-year (YoY). Total consolidated deposits in 2Q25 totaled $13.0 trillion, increasing 12.0% in real terms during the quarter, and 60.8% YoY. Quarterly increase was mainly explained by an increment in time deposits by 36.3%, and in savings accounts by 11.6%, the latter mainly due to deposits in foreign currency. The Bank's consolidated market share of private deposits reached 9.64% as of 2Q25 increasing 49 bps QoQ and 214 bps YoY. As of 2Q25, the non-performing loan ratio (NPL) reached 2.28%, with a 115.5% coverage ratio. The quarterly efficiency ratio in 2Q25 was 56.5%, remaining relatively stable compared to 1Q25's 56.3%. As of 2Q25, BBVA Argentina reached a regulatory capital ratio of 18.4% (Tier 1: 18.4%), entailing a 123.9% excess over minimum regulatory requirement. Total liquid assets represented 48.7% of the Bank's total deposits as of 2Q25 2Q25 Results Conference Call Thursday, August 21, 2025Time: 12:00 p.m. Buenos Aires time – (11:00 a.m. ET)To participate click to register About BBVA Argentina BBVA Argentina S.A. (NYSE; MAE; BYMA: BBAR; Latibex: XBBAR) is a subsidiary of the BBVA Group, its main shareholder since 1996. In Argentina, it has been one of the leading financial institutions since 1886. BBVA Argentina offers retail and corporate banking to a wide client base, including individuals, SMEs, and large corporations. BBVA's strategy is to support its clients' ambition to go further. This is achieved through constant and empathetic support during key moments, recognizing the inner strength that drives people. The value proposition focuses on anticipation and innovation to be the ideal partner that helps clients reach their goals. View source version on Contacts BBVA Argentina Investor Relations investorelations-arg@ Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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UK Inflation Shocker: Why the BOE's Rate Cuts May Be Off the Table
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. While inflation has cooled across much of the developed world, the UK is proving stubborn. Consumer prices jumped 3.8% year-on-year in July and are expected to breach 4% by Septemberdouble the Bank of England's 2% target. The BOE has already slashed interest rates five times, trimming them to 4% from last year's 5.25% peak. But that hasn't been enough to rein in prices. Core drivers? Surging energy bills, labor costs, and a 26 billion payroll tax rolled out in Aprilall of which are pushing up input costs for businesses, many of whom are passing them on. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with NVDA. Underneath the surface, the structural headwinds look even more problematic. UK productivity shrank 1% in Q2 compared to last year, putting the country behind most of its G7 peers. Add in lingering Brexit-related trade frictions and food prices that are now nearly 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels, and it becomes harder to argue this is just a cyclical inflation blip. Some pressures, like the summer airfare spike, may prove temporarybut the BOE remains on edge about second-round effects as workers continue to seek higher pay to shield themselves from the cost-of-living squeeze. Markets still expect a cut to 3.75% in November, but the BOE may hold back if wage growth doesn't cool as expected. For investors, this means uncertainty lingersparticularly for UK-linked consumer names and housing-sensitive sectors. Even global players like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which has exposure to the UK market, could feel ripple effects if inflation stays sticky and rate cuts get delayed. The BOE isn't calling the peak yetand neither should the market.
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Trading Day: AI fatigue, policy intrigue
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Gnawing doubts about the frenzy around artificial intelligence weighed on tech shares again on Wednesday, pushing Wall Street into the red as investors cast a nervous eye toward a key speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday. More on that below. In my column today, I look ahead to Powell's eighth and final Jackson Hole speech. If market moves following his previous seven are any guide, investors should be in for a bumpy ride. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Trump calls on Fed Governor Cook to resign 2. Fed's dilemma between AI and housing: Mike Dolan 3. Big investors ditch tech ahead of expected Septemberstocks slump 4. US tech-stock stumble shows vulnerability in AI 5. UK inflation heat puts Bank of England back in thespotlight Today's Key Market Moves * STOCKS: Wall Street in the red, again led by techselloff. Nasdaq sheds 0.7%. China closes at a 10-year high,Europe gains too, but benchmark EM falls. * SHARES/SECTORS: Target slides 6% after firm announcesinsider Michael Fiddelke as new CEO. Intel falls 7% and othertech firms fall on news the government is eyeing stakes inchipmakers. * FX: New Zealand dollar falls 1% after dovish RBNZ ratecut, bucking broader trend of U.S. dollar weakness. * BONDS: U.S. yields down ever so slightly, recoveringafter the Fed minutes. The 20-year auction was mixed. * COMMODITIES: Safety bid lifts gold 1%, oil reboundsaround 1.5% on U.S. inventory drawdown. Today's Talking Points: * Trump interference. Investors are increasingly concerned about the involvement - or interference - from President Donald Trump and his administration in many aspects of the economy, private sector business, and independent policymaking. Trump on Wednesday called for Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign over mortgage allegations, which could pave the way for another Trump appointee at the Fed inclined to lower interest rates. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, meanwhile, is said to be looking into the government taking equity stakes in Intel and other chipmakers in exchange for grants under the CHIPS Act. This comes on the heels of Trump's recent sideswipe at Goldman Sachs's CEO and chief U.S. economist, criticism of JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, his firing of a senior statistics official, and months of verbal attacks on Powell for not cutting rates. * Tech fatigue. After leading Wall Street's charge this year to new peaks, U.S. tech shares are now losing steam and dragging broader indexes lower. Whether that's simply rotation and diversification, unease over the megacap concentration, or doubts about the huge AI spend, air is coming out of the tech balloon. The S&P 500 tech sector is down nearly 5% in the last five trading days. But a bit of perspective is required - the sector rallied 60% between April 7 and August 13. * Fed minutes. With just two days to go until Powell's last Jackson Hole speech, investors on Wednesday had the minutes of the Fed's July 29-30 policy meeting to pore over. The minutes appear to show that the two policymakers who dissented against the central bank decision to leave rates unchanged appear not to have been joined by others in voicing support for lowering rates at that meeting. "Almost all participants viewed it as appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50% at this meeting," the minutes read. Maybe the bar to cutting rates is higher than thought? But bear in mind, the weak July payrolls data were released two days after that decision. Jackson Hole speech could pack a punch Financial markets are taking in a collective breath ahead of Powell's eighth and final keynote Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve chair. If the moves following his last seven are any guide, investors should buckle up for a bumpy ride. Fed-watchers will be focused squarely on whether Powell signals that he's willing to cut interest rates at the central bank's September 16-17 meeting. His public comments in recent months have been relatively hawkish, but those were all before the release of the weak July employment figures that fired up easing expectations. Rates futures traders are pricing in an 85% probability of a quarter-point cut next month, with another 25 basis points of easing expected by year's end. Powell's words on Friday could provide significant clarity about whether these positions are "in the money" or not. Given that traders are betting so heavily on an imminent move, the "pain trade" will be if Powell holds the line that policymakers need to see more incoming data before resuming the easing cycle put on hold in December. Investors have reason to be cautious. History shows Powell's Jackson Hole speeches tend to move markets a lot, especially the bond market. And even though Powell is often considered a policy dove at heart, his Jackson Hole set-piece speeches have usually pushed yields higher, not lower. WATCH BOND YIELDS In the month following each of Powell's last seven Jackson Hole speeches, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen by an average of 21 bps, according to Reuters calculations. The dollar has risen 1.4% and the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 2%, on average, over the same period. Stretching that out, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 2.3% between the late-August speech and year-end, the dollar has gained 0.4%, while the 10-year yield has climbed 27 basis points on average. But these averages mask some much bigger moves, especially in the month after the central bank jamboree in Wyoming. The stand-out example is 2022, when Powell, in his Monetary Policy and Price Stability speech, invoked former Fed Chair Paul Volcker, warning of the "pain" that households and businesses were likely to face from the tight policy needed to slay inflation. In the following month, the S&P 500 tanked 12%, the dollar rallied 5%, and the 10-year Treasury yield soared 75 bps. Bond yields climbed at least 20 bps in the month following three other Powell Jackson Hole speeches, in 2018, 2021, and 2023, the latter being another where Powell signaled a readiness to keep rates higher for longer. KEY CONSIDERATIONS Inflation today is not as lofty as it was two years ago, but, sitting around 1 percentage point above the Fed's 2% goal, it is higher than Powell would like. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Fed's dual mandate, unemployment remains at a historical low of 4.2%. This year's theme at Jackson Hole is "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." Powell has stated that the unemployment rate is the best measure of the labor market. But that does not mean today's low unemployment rate will automatically lead to a hawkish speech - history shows that when unemployment starts to rise, it can move quickly, leaving the Fed woefully behind the curve. Markets are probably prepared for some large price swings, whichever way Powell leans. THE LAST TIME It's also likely that Powell will use the platform to defend his tenure, just like his predecessors: Alan Greenspan in 2005, Ben Bernanke in 2012, and Janet Yellen in 2017. Given the unprecedented public pressure Trump has placed on Powell to cut interest rates this year, why would the Fed chair not seize this opportunity to have his say? "He may offer some soft guidance that rates may move lower at a coming meeting. But this is his last speech at Jackson Hole. He may never again have a platform this influential to offer his view of how his history should be written," economists at UBS wrote on Friday. Will he sign off with a bang? Markets are locked and loaded. What could move markets tomorrow? * Australia, Japan, India PMIs (August, flash) * South Korea producer inflation (July) * UK public finances (July) * UK, euro zone PMIs (August, flash) * Canada producer inflation (July) * U.S. weekly jobless claims * U.S. Philly Fed business index (August) * U.S. PMI (August) * U.S. $8 billion auction of 30-year TIPS * U.S. earnings - Walmart * Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Rod Nickel)
