HRB Stock: 7.6% Typical Jump After Earnings — Will Q4 Deliver?

Forbes

2 days ago

H & R Block Inc (NYSE: HRB), a company based in the U.S. that is primarily recognized for its tax preparation services, is set to announce its earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter (June fiscal year) on Tuesday, August 12, 2025. Analysts forecast earnings of $2.83 per share, alongside revenue of $1.07 billion. This would indicate a 50% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings as well as a slight rise in sales compared to the previous year's results of $1.89 per share and $1.06 billion in revenue. Historically, H&R Block shares frequently experience a boost after earnings are released, increasing half the time post-results, with an average one-day gain of 7.6% and peaks reaching as high as 20%. Also see, Buy or Sell HRB Stock?
Earlier this year, management reiterated its full-year guidance, relying on growth within its DIY tax-filing platform and Wave small-business services. Q4 also represents the peak of tax season, where assisted filings and last-minute electronic submissions can significantly influence results. A stronger-than-expected performance in this area might yield positive surprises. Separately see, Is Stride's 40% Surge Just The Beginning?
The company has a current market capitalization of $7.4 billion. In the last twelve months, revenue was $3.7 billion, with operational profit amounting to $808 million and a net income of $564 million. While much will hinge on how results compare to consensus forecasts and expectations, being aware of historical trends could benefit those trading on events.
For those trading around earnings, being knowledgeable about HRB's historical response patterns could provide an advantage—whether by positioning ahead of the announcement or reacting swiftly to volatility following the report. If you are looking for upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional data on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized in the table below along with the corresponding statistics.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A strategy that carries relatively less risk (though it may not be useful if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlations between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify pairs with the highest correlations, and execute the appropriate trades. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the greatest correlation, a trader might take a 'long' position for the next 5 days following a positive 1D post-earnings return. Below is correlation data based on a 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. It's essential to note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can impact the stock's reaction after earnings are announced. In fact, the market adjustments may start occurring prior to the earnings being disclosed. Here is some historical data comparing the post-earnings performance of H&R Block stock with that of peers who reported their earnings just before H&R Block. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns are also depicted as post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), delivering strong returns for investors.