Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates prediction, pick: Who gets finished at UFC Kansas City?

USA Today

25-04-2025

Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates prediction, pick: Who gets finished at UFC Kansas City?
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Ian Garry vs. Carlos Prates Prediction | UFC on ESPN 66 Breakdown
Who will win Ian Garry vs. Carlos Prates? MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC on ESPN 64 main event
MMA Junkie
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 66's main event between Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates.
Ian Machado Garry UFC Kansas City preview
Record: 15-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC
15-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC Age: 27
27 Height: 6'3"
6'3" Weight: 170 lbs.
170 lbs. Reach: 74.5"
74.5" Last fight: Decision loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov (Dec. 7, 2024)
Decision loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov (Dec. 7, 2024) Camp: Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Ireland/Brazil)
Chute Boxe Diego Lima (Ireland/Brazil) Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Orthodox/kickboxing Risk management: Good
Carlos Prates UFC Kansas City preview
Record: 21-6 MMA, 4-0 UFC
21-6 MMA, 4-0 UFC Age: 31
31 Height: 6'1"
6'1" Weight: 170 lbs.
170 lbs. Reach: 78"
78" Last fight: Knockout win over Neil Magny (Nov. 9, 2024)
Knockout win over Neil Magny (Nov. 9, 2024) Camp: Fighting Nerds (Brazil)
Fighting Nerds (Brazil) Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
Southpaw/muay Thai Risk management: Good
Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates point of interest: Striking with a southpaw
Garry, the orthodox fighter, comes from a grappling base but has dabbled with the striking arts from a young age.
An accomplished youth boxer, Garry possesses solid straight punches down the center line from both stances. Although Garry primarily operates out of orthodox, he occasionally switches sides for open-stance opportunities.
When feeling in stride, Garry will attach kicks to his punches, punishing all three levels.
Garry may take the back foot a bit too much for my liking, but his comfort with lateral movement and range-finding weapons allows him to build progress once he can establish his lead hand. And if an opponent over-commits from their power side, Garry appears to have some natural pull counters in his repertoire regardless of what stance his opponent is operating out of.
That said, counter striking appears to be a potent two-way street in Garry's fights, so the Brazilian-Irishman must be mindful of what's coming back at him when standing across from someone like [autotag]Carlos Prates[/autotag].
A savvy southpaw who spent multiple years fighting in Thailand, Prates has an undeniable swagger to his striking style.
Defensively, Prates can cover himself fairly well with a high guard when he wants to, but he quietly gets a decent amount done with defensive pivots, shoulder rolls and head movement.
Although I wish he were a little more active with his lead hand offensively, Prates does well at keeping the temperature high with lead-handed prods coming forward and check hook looks off the counter. And once Prates finds his range, the Brazilian wields the multi-level threat of crushing kicks and crosses in conjunction, providing multiple examples of what many of us analysts refer to as 'the southpaw double-attack.'
Whether Prates is counter-balancing knees with straight shots or is utilizing crosses to disguise kicks off the same side, the lung-dart-loving 31-year-old can serve as a death dealer with multiple weapons at his disposal.
Prates is also an avid leg kicker who doesn't discriminate when it comes to picking his targets in open-stance affairs (as he isn't beyond attacking the rear leg a la Sittichai Sitsongpeenong).
Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering where the potential path of least resistance lies, no one should be shocked if Garry leans into his judo base and looks to grapple in this fight.
Garry may not be putting up Karo Parisyan-like throws in the octagon, but the judo black belt does well at keeping a strong base and stymying opposition in closed quarters.
Garry will utilize more traditional takedown attacks despite his background, but the 27-year-old seems to prefer attempts from the clinch (which could be interesting considering Prates' acumen in said space).
Not only can Prates operate well with the collar ties that you would associate with a striker of his background, but the Brazilian also displays solid wrestling fundamentals as far as defense goes.
Whether Prates hoisting his opponent's arms off of his hips with high and tight whizzers or is working off of solid forearm frames, the Fighting Nerds product demonstrates solid fight I.Q. when forced to defend takedowns along the fence. And in the open, Prates appears to have some deceptively strong hips that assist his already stellar reaction times when it comes to shutting down shots at his legs.
When taken down, Prates is good about keeping his composure while seeking out solutions that prioritize stand-ups and sweeps over submissions. Prates showed a glimpse of his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt savvy with a sweet butterfly sweep he hit against Charles Radtke, but Garry should prove a more stern test if he's able to get some positive positions in this fight.
Garry, who has made concerted efforts to improve his grappling since working down in Brazil, has been a bit more grapple-heavy in his last few fights. Training with everyone from Charles Oliveira to Demian Maia, Garry appears to be trickier in transition than he was before, showing some solid, opportunistic back-taking skills.
Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates odds
The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the Brazilian-Irishman, listing Garry -130 and Prates +102 via FanDuel.
Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates prediction, pick
Considering that Garry is the more proven product from a UFC standpoint, I'm not too surprised to see him open as the favorite – – nor am I shocked to see money trickle in on the popular underdog in Prates.
I believe Garry has more ways of winning this fight on paper, including potential pathways in the striking realm.
Aside from officially standing at 3-0 opposite UFC-level lefties, I've argued for some time that Garry arguably strikes better with southpaws than he does against orthodox opposition.
From Garry's ability to capitalize on countering dynamics that are traditionally enjoyed by southpaws to the fact that he actually jabs in open-stance affairs, it's hard not to respect this aspect of his game. But what makes this style matchup so interesting is the fact that Garry and Prates utilize similar striking tactics despite operating out of different stances.
Whether we're talking about counter balancing knees with crosses or setting up head kicks with body and leg assaults, Garry and Prates partake in a lot of the same setups.
Both fighters also share the common culprit of left-sided strikes in open-stance pairings, but Garry's cage positioning is what differentiates these two for me.
Although Garry has made noted strides in his exits and lateral movement, he still plays with fire in regards to skirting along the outside with his back near the fence (as a decent percentage of his defensive lapses come when corralled and pressured in this space).
Whereas Prates, who does a decent job of pivoting and circling back into the center, comes to life like he's the second coming of Anderson Silva whenever his opponents find themselves in his preferred kill zone between the cage and inner-black octagon lines.
To Garry's credit, he will have the larger octagon to work with, so don't be shocked if he's able to draw Prates into a frustrating fight that ends with some contentious result. However, if Garry can't capitalize on Prates' heavy open-sided slips with a head kick or bank some serious control time by finding the Brazilian's back, then we could see his body and legs get broken down by "The Nightmare" at range.
As much as I hate to forecast for an underrated fighter to suffer the first stoppage loss of their career, I suspect that Garry's willingness to play in Prates' preferred kill zones will give plenty of chances for "The Future" to finally get burned for playing with fire.
There are not many fighters in this division that I'd peg to best Garry on the feet, but I believe that Prates is that dude.
The pick is Prates by knockout in Round 3.
Prediction: Prates inside the distance