Tariff tangle: Cast shrimp nets right, and India could come up trumps!

Time of India

5 days ago

Factors
Details
Shrimp export share to US
~92% of India's seafood exports ~$2.5 billion
New US tariff
~50-59 % (up from 6-8%)
Impact on margins
Narrow profit margins (4-5%) are likely to be wiped out
Potential market response
Order cancellations, discounting, renegotiations
Financial fallout
Rs 600 crore burden on in-transit shipments
Diversification efforts
Pivoting to the EU, China and Gulf countries
Support strategies
Branding, RPA talks, support tied to export employment
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India produces approximately 900,000 to 930,000 tonnes of shrimp annually, with production volumes fluctuating due to factors such as disease outbreaks, unseasonal rains, and feed costs. In FY 2023-24, India's annual shrimp exports were substantial, totalling around $4.88 billion. Frozen shrimp accounted for the largest share of the country's total marine product exports, which stood at $7.38 billion.On August 6, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on goods imported from India. This move was a penalty tied to India's continued purchases of Russian energy and military equipment and set to take effect on August 27, 2025. Earlier on August 1, 2025, Trump had imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff. With the total tariff now at 50%, it is expected to severely impact key export sectors, such as shrimp, making Indian goods less competitive compared to rivals like Ecuador, which enjoys a much lower tariff of 10% on seafood exports to the US. Trade experts and government officials have stated that this steep tariff makes Indian exports to the US unviable and has prompted the Indian government to explore alternative markets and fast-track domestic reforms to support affected industries.Shrimp constitutes about 92% of India's seafood exports to the US, with a value of around $2.5 billion in FY 2023-24. Export margins in shrimp are typically narrow, ranging from approximately 4% to 5%. An increase in tariffs to over 50% from the previously existing 6-8% significantly squeezes profitability and makes Indian shrimp uncompetitive against rivals like Ecuador. The Seafood Exporters Association of India has issued a warning that 2,000 containers currently in transit may face additional duties, resulting in an estimated burden of Rs 600 crore to be borne by exporters. Major shrimp-exporter states such as Andhra Pradesh, which saw its marine exports to the US in 2024-25 valued at $170 million—nearly all frozen Vannamei shrimp—are especially susceptible to order cancellations, renegotiations, and financial distress across the supply chain. Share prices of listed companies like Avanti Feeds and Waterbase dropped up to 7% following the tariff announcement, reflecting investor concern over lost US market access and a potential collapse in margins.Producers are exploring new export destinations such as China, the European Union (EU), Japan, and West Asia. However, analysts caution that these transitions will take time to compensate for losses in the US market. The Indian government is encouraging exporters to build indigenous branding and consider support schemes tied to employment in marine exports to maintain competitiveness. Plans are underway for a US-India Regional Partnership Agreement (RPA) aimed at aligning trade and sanitary protocols, which could lead to a reduction in rejections and a more streamlined compliance process similar to the existing arrangements with Ecuador. Rather than subsidies, the government is exploring 'innovative' support strategies that align with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) compliance, moving away from subsidies. These strategies may include marketing campaigns, brand-building efforts, and potentially employment-based export support modules.The tariffs imposed by Trump, which have risen to about 50-59%, put a severe strain on the Indian shrimp industry, threatening to erode profit margins and competitiveness in its largest overseas market. While short-term shocks appear unavoidable, mitigation through new trade agreements, branding, compliance upgrades, and market diversification may help avert long-term collapse.Despite the challenges in the export market, India's domestic shrimp market presents a significant opportunity for growth. Several factors and initiatives are driving this expansion. India's domestic shrimp market is already a major segment, with forecasts indicating it will reach $22.7 billion by 2033 (GII Research, IMARC Group, Research and Markets). This growth is driven by rising incomes and urbanisation. A growing middle class, equipped with greater disposable incomes, is increasingly adding seafood, such as shrimp, to their diets. There is a growing consumer awareness of the nutritional benefits of shrimp, particularly regarding its high protein content. Shrimp is a widely used ingredient in various Indian cuisines, contributing further to its increased consumption.Both government agencies and private players are actively working to promote domestic consumption. State governments are launching rebranding campaigns to increase awareness and consumption of locally produced shrimp. These campaigns are inspired by successful models of institutes like the National Egg Coordination Committee, which made eggs a household staple. The government is providing financial assistance for shrimp farming, processing, and marketing, including concessional finance for entrepreneurs and investors to set up aquaculture facilities and value-added product processing plants. There is a focus on building better cold storage and distribution networks to ensure the availability of fresh shrimp across the country, including in non-coastal areas. The rise of organised retail and e-commerce platforms is facilitating the sale of value-added shrimp products, like frozen, ready-to-eat, and marinated shrimp. This caters to the demand from urban consumers with busy lifestyles.India can indeed turn this crisis around and come up trumps if we cast our nets right!!The writers M. Krishnan is former Principal Scientist & Head, ICAR - Central Institute of Fisheries Education, Mumbai; Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan is a visiting Senior Fellow, CSEP, New Delhi.