
Are Authoritarian Regimes Backtracking Women's Rights?
Happy Friday! New York City is abuzz this week, as women's rights leaders from all over the world gather at the United Nations. I'm thrilled to have chatted with some of the stars of the conference for this week's edition.
Women's rights are declining all over the world — and the global rise of authoritarian regimes may be to blame, according to a new report from the United Nations.
This week, the U.N. kicked off the 69th Session of the Commission on the Status of Women — its second biggest meeting after the opening of the General Assembly.
The aim of the commission: to address the barriers to gender equality that women face around the globe.
This year's CSW marks the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action, a policy blueprint for advancing women's rights, such as access to education and health services and protection against violence.
The March 6 report from U.N. Women released ahead of the conference found that progress on women's rights is on a downward trend around the world. In 2024, nearly a quarter of governments worldwide reported a backlash on women's rights.
'We are witnessing the mainstreaming of chauvinism and misogyny,' U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. 'As we see in every corner of the world, from pushback to rollback, women's rights are under attack.'
The report tracked data from member countries' five-year national-level reviews of progress and challenges, and 30-year reviews of reports from Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean and Western Asia. It found that around the world, there was a 'disturbing 50 percent increase in the number of women and girls living in conflict, and women's rights defenders confront daily harassment, personal attacks and even death.'
Laura Turquet, Deputy Chief of the Research and Data section at U.N. Women, tells Women Rule 'we've seen important progress, but it's not going fast enough and it's actually stalling.'
And the rise in authoritarian and populist governments across the world could be what is impeding progress, Turquet says. 'We've seen the rise of very authoritarian governments … a lot of countries are experiencing backsliding when it comes to free and fair elections, to freedom of the press, even the ability of women and civil society organizations to speak out and participate in policy.'
That democratic erosion, she says, 'has gone hand in hand with organized resistance to advances on women's rights.'
As Turquet sees it, increasing inequality, wage disparities and traumatic world events like the Covid-19 pandemic have created an environment enabling authoritarian governments to push for a return to tradition, particularly the idea of a traditional family. Authoritarian leaders often suggest that 'we need to kind of go back to an imagined past where things were simpler and easier, where men and women had more defined roles,' she says, and this push for the traditional family contributes to limiting women's rights.
'When you take a closer look at what the traditional family is … we're talking about a biological male husband who is married with a biological female wife and as many kids as they can possibly have,' Rosalyn Park, director of The Advocates for Human Rights' Women's Human Rights Program, says.
That idea 'really goes to the heart of attacking sexual reproductive rights, family planning, contraception, abortion, all those kinds of things, in the interests of preserving and maintaining the family unit.'
According to Park, this preservation of the family unit has played out in other countries. 'We've seen countries that decriminalized domestic violence, for example, like Russia, because they want to keep the family together at the expense of women's safety.'
'This also lets them push for a revival of stereotypical roles by positioning women first and foremost in the home as homemakers, caretakers … And then men remain as the breadwinners,' Park continues.
One example of the global regression of women's rights: the recent backlash against the Istanbul Convention, a European human rights treaty opposing violence against women and domestic violence. It was initially successful and signed by 34 countries in 2019, but in 2021, Turkey — whose largest city gave the treaty its name and who was the first to ratify it — withdrew from the agreement. Other countries like Poland have also considered withdrawing from it, citing concerns about the agreement promoting harmful gender ideology and threatening the traditional family.
Women's rights have 'become very caught up in this idea of gender ideology, this idea that gender is not about women and men and equality, but that it's … a radical agenda that is almost entirely about LGBT rights,' Turquet explains. As a result, she says, we are seeing 'a backlash on something as basic as protecting women from the violence that they are facing in their everyday lives.'
Similar concerns about gender ideology have popped up in the United States, as exemplified by one of President Donald Trump's first executive orders, 'Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government.'
Trump's order argues that gender ideology 'replaces the biological category of sex with an ever-shifting concept of self-assessed gender identity, permitting the false claim that males can identify as and thus become women and vice versa.'
In closed-door meetings at CSW, the U.S. proposed weakening or removing provisions that encourage states and U.N. entities to expand the role of women in peacekeeping and diplomacy, according to a Devex report.
Meanwhile, at the CSW on Friday, Jonathan Shrier, acting U.S. representative to the U.N. Economic and Social Council, reinforced Trump's message.
'The United States government will no longer promote radical ideologies that replace women with men in spaces and opportunities designed for women, nor will it devastate families by indoctrinating our sons and daughters to begin wars with their own bodies or each other,' he said.
'In rejoining the Geneva consensus declaration, we have shown our commitment to women's health, the protection of life at all stages, and the defense of the family as the fundamental unit of society.'
POLITICO Special Report
Top Illinois Democrat Readies a Senate Bid — And Tells People She Has Major Backing by Ally Mutnick and Shia Kapos for POLITICO: 'Juliana Stratton, who first took office in 2019, is quietly positioning herself for a Senate bid if Durbin bows out, calling key Democratic figures to ask for support, according to three people with knowledge of her plans, one of whom spoke with her directly and the other two who spoke with members of her team. And she and her staff have said that she's already secured the support of Gov. JB Pritzker, the three people said.'
Klobuchar Hits Trump on Tariffs: You Can't Be 'Just Declaring Yourself a King' by Jordan Wolman for POLITICO: 'Klobuchar, speaking at POLITICO Playbook's First 100 Days breakfast series, said Trump should be working through trade issues in the context of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, 'not by just declaring yourself a king.' 'The way to negotiate this is in the USMCA,' she said.'
Sen. Tina Smith: DOGE Efforts at USDA Are 'Completely Wrong' by Grace Yarrow and Samuel Benson for POLITICO: 'Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) slammed the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency's efforts to slash spending and cut staff at the Agriculture Department on Thursday. 'I think what they're doing is completely wrong,' Smith said at POLITICO Playbook's First 100 Days breakfast series. 'I think it runs counter to the intentions of Congress and what we have passed,' Smith added. 'Honestly, I don't really believe that Elon Musk or the DOGE guys that are in there really have any idea, what they're doing, or what the impact is of the decisions that they're making.''
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Teenagers Say Girls Are Equal to Boys in School, or Are Ahead by Claire Cain Miller for The New York Times: 'More than half of teenagers say that boys and girls are now mostly equal in school. And significant shares say that girls have advantages over boys — that they get better grades, have more leadership roles and speak up more in class, according to a Pew Research Center survey of teens nationwide published Thursday. Boys are more likely to be disruptive, get into fights or have problems with drugs or alcohol, the teenagers said. And strikingly, boys said they're much less likely to be college-bound: 46 percent of boys said they planned to attend a four-year college, compared with 60 percent of girls.'
Why We Need More Women Leaders in Politics for the Future of Work by Katica Roy for the World Economic Forum: 'When women hold political power, economies grow. A 10 percentage point increase in women's parliamentary representation is associated with a 0.7 percentage point increase in GDP growth. Countries with greater female political representation consistently implement policies that support gender-equal labour markets, such as paid family leave, pay transparency and childcare infrastructure. These policies don't just benefit women; they increase workforce participation, boost productivity and fuel economic expansion.
'Two Transgender Girls, Six Federal Agencies. How Trump Is Trying to Pressure Maine Into Obedience by Callie Ferguson and Erin Rhoda, Bangor Daily News, and Jennifer Smith Richards and Jodi S. Cohen for ProPublica: 'On a Monday last month, after a conservative Maine legislator expressed outrage on Facebook about a transgender girl winning a high school pole vaulting event, the hammer of the federal government began to swing. By Friday of that week, Feb. 21, President Donald Trump singled out Maine's governor during a White House event and threatened to cut off the state's federal funding. 'See you in court,' Gov. Janet Mills shot back. Then came a barrage of investigations and threats: The U.S. Department of Education opened inquiries into the Maine Department of Education and the student's school district, alleging they had violated federal civil rights law.'
Quote of the Week
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on the move
Aviva Aron-Dine will join the Brookings economic studies program as a senior fellow and director of the Hamilton Project. She most recently was acting assistant secretary for tax policy at the Treasury Department. (h/t POLITICO Playbook)
Hailey Miller is now director of government relations and public policy for the Digital Power Network, an affiliate of the Chamber of Digital Commerce. She was previously a vice president at 1607 Strategies and is an FTI Consulting and Ted Cruz alum. (h/t POLITICO Influence)
Rachel Millard is now director of corporate reputation and public affairs at EY (Americas). She previously was an SVP at Edelman Smithfield. (h/t POLITICO Playbook)
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Time Magazine
26 minutes ago
- Time Magazine
What Countries Recognize Palestinian Statehood?
Amid mounting international pressure on Israel to end its war in Gaza, there is growing diplomatic momentum in the West to recognize Palestinian statehood, with Australia becoming the latest to announce plans to do so. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Monday that the country will recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly next month. Albanese said during a press conference Monday that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week about needing 'a political solution, not a military one' to the war in Gaza. Australia's Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong said she spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ahead of the announcement. 'Australia will recognise the State of Palestine at the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in September, to contribute to international momentum towards a two-state solution, a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages,' Albanese said in a statement. 'The Netanyahu Government is extinguishing the prospect of a two-state solution by rapidly expanding illegal settlements, threatening annexation in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, and explicitly opposing any Palestinian state.' The move comes as Israel has again amped up its offensive in Gaza over the course of its nearly two-year long war, while the Israeli government is considering a 'complete conquest' of Gaza. Humanitarian organizations have warned about the humanitarian crisis and famine unfolding in Gaza, as well as the targeting and killing of journalists, while Netanyahu has claimed media bias and denied that Palestinians are starving. Here's what to know. Which countries have recognized a Palestinian state? Nearly 150 of 193 U.N. member states recognize Palestinian statehood, including most countries in Asia, Africa, and South America. But currently, only a fraction of Western countries do—mostly former members of the Soviet Union—although momentum appears to be growing. In July, France, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Malta announced their intention to recognize a Palestinian state at the September U.N. meeting. New Zealand also said on Monday that it would 'carefully weigh up its position over the next month on recognition of a state of Palestine.' Portugal, too, said in July that it is considering recognizing Palestinian statehood. They join Armenia, Slovenia, Ireland, Spain, and Norway, as well as four others around the world, which recognized Palestinian statehood in 2024. What does it mean to recognize Palestinian statehood? By international law, a sovereign state should have a permanent population, a defined territory, an effective government, and the ability to conduct international relations. Whether or not a country is formally recognized by other states is not a requirement of sovereign statehood, but it shapes how countries interact with each other. With much of the world already recognizing Palestinian statehood, the shift among Western countries is widely seen as an attempt to pressure Israel towards a cease-fire. Some Western countries made a similar move a decade ago after the Israeli government annexed territory in the West Bank. Sweden in 2014 officially recognized Palestinian statehood, while U.K. lawmakers voted in favor of doing the same, although the British government did not formally recognize Palestinian statehood at the time. Much of the West has long supported a 'two-state' solution, in which a Palestinian state would exist in most or all of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and east Jerusalem, alongside the state of Israel. Although largely seen as symbolic, the shift in recognition has been accompanied by growing censure of the Israeli government, such as Germany's suspension of Gaza-linked weapons exports to Israel last week and a majority of Senate Democrats voting to stop arms sales to Israel at the end of July. But elevating a Palestinian state to a full member, rather than a Permanent Observer, as it currently is, at the U.N. would require getting the U.S. on board. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. has the power to veto resolutions that could change Palestine's membership status, which it has done in the past. How have Israel, the U.S., and others reacted? Israel has condemned Western countries like France, Canada, and the U.K. for their decision to recognize Palestinian statehood, arguing that it 'rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became.' The Israeli government opposes Palestinian sovereignty and a two-state solution. Netanyahu called Australia's decision 'shameful' and said 'it's not going to change our position.' 'I think we're actually applying force judiciously, and they know it. They know what they would do if right next to Melbourne or right next to Sydney you had this horrific attacks. I think you would do it, at least what we're doing, probably maybe not as efficiently and as precisely as we're doing it,' Netanyahu told reporters Sunday. The war in Gaza was ignited by Hamas' terrorist attack in southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing more than 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages. Since then, more than 60,000 Palestinians and nearly 2,000 Israelis have been killed, according to Gaza's Health Ministry and Israeli forces, respectively. (In the absence of independent monitoring on the ground, the Gaza Health Ministry is the primary source for casualty data relied upon by humanitarian groups, journalists, and international bodies. Its figures do not differentiate between civilians and combatants and cannot be independently verified by TIME.) Hamas had released 140 living hostages, as of the start of July. The Israeli government believes around 20 living hostages remain in Gaza, as well as the bodies of around 30 others. Hamas reportedly offered to release all hostages in exchange for the full withdrawal of Israel's military from Gaza and an end to the war, which a Hamas senior official said Israel rejected. 'By recognising a Palestinian state now, Australia elevates the position of Hamas,' Israel's envoy to Australia Amir Maimon said in a statement posted to X. Netanyahu earlier this year said that the leaders of France, Canada, and the U.K. were 'emboldening Hamas' after they had signed a joint letter calling for a cease-fire and two-state solution with an independent Palestinian state. The U.S., Israel's biggest ally, has also rejected the recent announcements. Rubio earlier called France's decision to recognize Palestinian statehood 'reckless' and said it 'only serves Hamas propaganda,' while President Donald Trump said French President Emmanuel Macron's statement 'doesn't carry weight.' Within Australia, the country's move has been met with both welcome and disapproval. The Executive Council of Australian Jewry called the move a 'betrayal' and that the Australian government has 'committed to recognising as a State an entity with no agreed borders, no single government in effective control of its territory, and no demonstrated capacity to live in peace with its neighbours.' Meanwhile Liberal-National Coalition defense spokesperson Angus Taylor said the decision was 'premature' and 'rewarding Hamas.' Labor Friends of Palestine, a rank-and-file group of the Australian Labor Party, said the move 'delivers on policy long supported by Labor members who will strongly welcome this move.' Australia Palestine Advocacy Network President Nasser Mashni said the announcement was 'meaningless' and a 'political fig leaf' while Australia continues to trade and have diplomatic relations with Israel. Albanese said in the press conference that the move is not only symbolic. 'This is not Australia acting alone,' he said. 'This is a practical contribution towards building momentum.'


Vox
26 minutes ago
- Vox
A solution to the child care shortage is hiding in plain sight
is a policy correspondent for Vox covering social policy. She focuses on housing, schools, homelessness, child care, and abortion rights, and has been reporting on these issues for more than a decade. Josh Brooks hadn't planned for a career taking care of young children, but in tenth grade he started spending time with his friend's younger brother and discovered that he had a real knack for it. At 18, Brooks took a job at Common Ground, a child care center in northern Virginia, and enjoyed it so much he kept working there throughout college, where he studied psychology. After graduating, though, he felt pressure to get a 'real grown-up job' and applied to work as a government contractor. He maintained spreadsheets all day and was miserable. 'After nine months I realized how ridiculous that notion was, to keep myself from something that I loved,' he said. And so he returned back to Common Ground. Josh Brooks. Brooks, now 28, knows his career path is unusual: In the US, only 3 percent of the preschool workforce, and just 6 percent of the child care workforce, is male. But he works in a progressive part of the country, for an organization that explicitly touts the value of having men in the classroom. Common Ground's executive director, Liz Badley Raubacher, is married to a man who runs another child care center in town. It also helps that he's not the only male teacher on staff. Brooks works alongside Jordon Farrell, 30, who started volunteering at Common Ground to fulfill a high school requirement and, like Brooks, was surprised by how much he liked it. Farrell's been working there for the last seven years. They both teach alongside Zach Davis, 24, who originally went to trade school for hospitality. When the pandemic hit, most hotels shut down and Davis took a role as a recess attendant at a private school, and realized how much he liked working with kids. But when that school also closed due to Covid-19, he stumbled on Common Ground, and has been happily working there ever since. Despite severe worker shortages in child care, most centers across America employ no male teachers. Men tend to steer away from a field that's both low-paying and perceived as overtly feminine. They're also heavily deterred by parental suspicion of inappropriate contact; because most convicted sexual abusers are men, many families perceive any man interested in working with children as a threat. Hiring managers at the centers themselves worry about liability and consumer demand, reacting to fears more than data. Zach Davis, who teaches at Common Ground Childcare. 'I'm not going to say we haven't had those concerns, we've had to navigate those gut reactions with parents,' Raubacher told me. 'We say, 'Listen we understand, it may seem strange until you're here, but we'll help you through it.' We have women doctors, women accountants. And there are a lot of men who really just shine working with younger kids.' Building a stronger pipeline to recruit and retain men in child care could help bring sorely needed talent into the field. Yet unlike in K-12 education, where there have been national efforts to recruit more men, there's been no similar systemic push to alter the gender ratios in the female-dominated child care space. Jordon Farrell teaches 3- and 4-year-olds at Common Ground Childcare. Smaller scale-efforts are starting to emerge, though. In 2023, Hopkins House Early Childhood Learning Institute, a Virginia-based educator training program, hosted a conference to explore the idea. 'Programs are starving for qualified personnel,' J. Glenn Hopkins, the chief executive of Hopkins House, said. 'Looking only at one half of the population is a mistake.' What it's like to be a man working in child care Being the sole man in the classroom hasn't always been easy for Julian LaFerla, even as he felt sure that he brought something distinctive and valuable. LaFerla stumbled into his child care career when he took a college class on early childhood learning. He considered it a quasi-training course for one day becoming a father 'and then I just discovered it felt like a really humane field,' he said. 'You know, the play and the story time, and the snacks, and the singing — it just felt like a nice workplace.' Josh Brooks, the social-emotional teacher, plays guitar and works with children of all ages at Common Ground Childcare. Now 48, LaFerla has spent 12 years working across various preschool, child care, and kindergarten settings in St. Paul, Minnesota — plus another 10 years as a stay-at-home father. But unlike the men at Common Ground in Virginia, LaFerla has never had a male colleague or male mentor, leaving him to navigate complex gender dynamics alone. 'In some circumstances with certain kids, the expectation is I should be more masculine, and with others it's to be less masculine,' he said. 'Compared to my female colleagues, I'm just more engaged in high-energy, rough-and-tumble play — picking kids up, wrestling, letting them climb all over me, that sort of thing.' Nine years into his teaching career, LaFerla decided to pursue a master's in education to better understand his own experiences. Through scouring the literature on men in child care for his thesis, he learned that many of his confusing moments were widely shared: The lack of support from his father for his career choice, the assumption that he could serve as the school's default handyman, and the ongoing tension of when to emphasize gender difference, sameness, or neutrality. Common Ground Childcare explicitly touts the value of having men in the classroom. Researchers find that men often feel that they're scrutinized more closely than their female colleagues. Men sense that they're excluded from tasks like diapering or comforting upset children, yet are then expected to take on the role of disciplinarian when kids misbehave. The biggest hurdle men report, though, is the fear that parents will see them as a threat. Unlike other fields where women dominate — like nursing or even elementary school teaching — working with kids under 5 involves a lot of physical contact. For male workers, routine tasks like helping with bathroom needs or soothing crying children become potential liabilities. 'A lot of men I've spoken to are scared of the prospect of accusations or things being taken the wrong way and that just completely puts them off from wanting to do anything involving children,' Brooks, of Common Ground, told me. Until programs can overcome these cultural barriers and biases, schools and programs will keep struggling to recruit men — and to hold on to the few they do have. And while it's natural to worry about abuse or neglect by anyone, advocates focused on reducing child abuse emphasize that risk should be mitigated through training and rigorous vetting, including criminal background checks, for all staff. Some child care centers incorporate security cameras and windows in interior doors, or have rules about having multiple staff present with children at all times, to help build trust and transparency. Trying to bring men in Over the last decade, some child care advocates have started speaking up about the need to better support men in their industry and address the challenges that LaFerla and others face. 'Men, if they're working in early childhood settings, or even fathers if they come into the building, tend to be uncomfortable because the settings don't make them feel comfortable,' said Hopkins, of Hopkins House. 'It's an unintended consequence — it's not a purposeful decision but [reflects] how child care has evolved.' Jordon Farrell has been at Common Ground Childcare for seven years. Last November, at a second conference hosted by Hopkins House, participants proposed strategies to recruit more men, including targeted scholarships and mentorship programs. Participants also emphasized the need to challenge gender stereotypes through public awareness campaigns and improve pay to attract stronger candidates. Their suggestions are in line with researchers who have been advocating strategies like providing mentorship and direct support to new male teachers from other men. Some studies suggest that men may also be more likely to stay in early childhood settings that actively engage with gender — through measures like anti-bias training, curriculum design, or even parent outreach — than in environments that ignore it altogether. To appeal to men's interest in important work, the group recommended highlighting early childhood education's impact on young minds and communities. Participants suggested emphasizing that teaching and caregiving requires strength, leadership, and creativity, and expanding internship and apprenticeship opportunities to give more men hands-on experience and exposure. Hopkins said he's part of a new group of men working in early childhood education in Washington, DC, and knows a similar program may launch soon in Virginia. He pointed to growing national interest in supporting employment for young men, which may provide an opportunity to leverage those resources for his work. Child care and early learning are also fields less susceptible to automation by artificial intelligence than many traditionally male-dominated jobs — a reality noted by several men I interviewed. 'I hold tight to this job because I feel like child care isn't going anywhere,' Brooks of Common Ground told me. 'People will always need other people to watch their children, no matter what.' 'I hold tight to this job because I feel like child care isn't going anywhere,' Josh Brooks said. 'People will always need other people to watch their children, no matter what.' Davis said the small, everyday moments make his career decision feel simple. 'It's just great working with the kids and watching them grow,' he said. 'Every day I come in and they always say good morning to me, or like, give you a hug or something.' This work was supported by a grant from the Bainum Family Foundation. Vox Media had full discretion over the content of this reporting.

Indianapolis Star
an hour ago
- Indianapolis Star
Trump's tariffs weakened the economy, so he's lying about the data
In March, I predicted the U.S. economy would enter recession and in April I explained how Indiana would be especially vulnerable to this downturn. Unfortunately, I was right. A large tranche of data — both public and private — makes that clear. Tariffs have descended hard upon American businesses and consumers. Estimates of their downstream effects cluster around a $2,400 cost per family by the end of 2025, dropping to $2,000 a year in 2026 and later years as Americans buy fewer goods. This has led economist Justin Wolfers to quip, "Trump has a pronoun problem. He keeps saying he's imposing tariffs on they/them. But he's actually imposing them on us." Consumer sentiment has dropped by more than 10 percentage points since President Trump's inauguration day and labor markets have stalled. Help wanted ads nationally dropped by 21% since Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements and by 27% here in Indiana. The private sector jobs number from ADP shows job growth effectively stopped in April. These private data tell a rich and consistent story about the economy, but public sector data are more accurate and complete. This requires comment on data integrity and character. U.S. economic data has been the envy of the world since the Great Depression. It is fast, accurate, nonpartisan and profoundly transparent. It is collected by a group of quiet professionals with input from hundreds of organizations and individuals. These data make the U.S. the most trustworthy and reliable destination for foreign investment. Trump fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Aug. 1 because he didn't like these data. Trump claimed the data were biased against him. That is false. Trump is afraid of facts and likely to become more fearful as more facts emerge — economic or otherwise. He has good reason to be scared on all counts. The latest federal jobs report indicated that the U.S. economy stalled shortly after tariffs were announced. Overall job creation dropped to near zero and manufacturing employment declined by 33,000 jobs in just three months. Since the tariffs were announced, Indiana lost 2,600 factory jobs — and that is without the most recent month's data, which have not been released. Factory orders have plummeted to levels not seen since COVID and, before that, the Great Recession. On a scale of self-inflicted economic wounds, this is unparalleled. Hicks: Indiana's college crisis has nothing to do with woke campuses or high costs Formally, recessions are determined by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which uses six indicators. Between March and April — when I first said we had walked into a recession — four of these six turned negative. Only employment and industrial production remained (modestly) positive. By the next data release, both of those indicators will be negative. Trump inherited an economy that grew at 2.4% last year. Job creation has slowed dramatically under Trump — from over 180,000 monthly jobs under former President Joe Biden in 2024 to just 35,000 since the tariffs began. If the BLS continues to deliver honest job numbers, we should expect no job growth until 2026 — if then. Unlike typical recessions, prices are rising due to tariffs, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to help the economy. So, as we move into fall, we should expect accumulating job losses, higher prices and a Fed hesitant to cut rates when the problem is solely that of bad tariffs, not monetary policy. Trump's criticism of the Fed, like that of the BLS, is at best a transparent effort to deflect blame for the ill effects of his tariff obsession. Another uncommon aspect of this recession is that it is isolated to the U.S. We did this to ourselves by starting a trade war with the rest of the world. No other countries seem especially interested in crashing their own economies. Briggs: Steak 'n Shake's MAGA makeover is a desperate bid to save a dying business This diminishes the attractiveness of the U.S. as a destination for foreign investment. The situation is worsened by the reasonable suspicion that the Trump administration will deliver fictional economic data. Foreign investors may flee, driving up borrowing costs. So, as the U.S. enters a downturn all alone, with the specter of falsified economic data, we should all expect home mortgages, credit card rates and car loans to be higher in the months and years to come. Capital markets are ruthless towards erratic and bizarre economic policies— and whatever else they might be, Trump's economic policies are erratic and bizarre.