UFC Tonight: UFC 319 Du Plessis Vs. Chimaev Full Fight Card Odds
The UFC 319 main card streams on ESPN+ PPV following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+.
UFC Tonight - UFC 319 Pay-Per-View Card Betting Odds: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Dricus du Plessis (+210) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-250) - For Du Plessis's UFC middleweight title
Lerone Murphy (+153) vs. Aaron Pico (-178) - Featherweight
Jared Cannonier (+170) vs. Michael Page (-200) - Middleweight
Geoff Neal (+170) vs. Carlos Prates (-200) - Welterweight
Tim Elliott (+241) vs. Kai Asakura (-281) - Flyweight
UFC Tonight - UFC 319 Preliminary Card Betting Odds: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Baysangur Susurkaev (-1200) vs. Eric Nolan (+750) - Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert (+166) vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk (-191) - Middleweight
Jéssica Andrade (+115) vs. Loopy Godinez (-135) - Women's Strawweight
Alexander Hernandez (+280) vs. Chase Hooper (-340) - Lightweight
Edson Barboza (-135) vs. Drakkar Klose (+115) - Lightweight
Karine Silva (-200) vs. Dione Barbosa (+170) - Women's Flyweight
UFC Tonight - UFC 319 Early Preliminary Card Betting Odds: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Alibi Idiris (-500) vs. Joseph Morales (+375) - Flyweight
UFC Tonight - UFC 319 Fight Card Main Event: Dricus du Plessis Vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Dricus du Plessis (23-2) joined the UFC in October 2020 as a 26-year-old with a 14-2 record. Before he joined the UFC, Du Plessis had won titles with KSW and EFC. He made his debut against Markus Perez on the main card of a UFC Fight Night event in Abu Dhabi. Du Plessis knocked out Perez in the first round. He followed that win with a July 2021 'Performance of the Night' KO win of Trevin Giles.
Those two wins earned him a shot against the ranked veteran Brad Tavares. Du Plessis won that scrap via decision. The victory put him in the top 15 of the division. A December 2022 submission win over Darren Till moved Du Plessis to No. 10 in the division. A TKO win over the No. 5 ranked Derek Brunson followed.
Du Plessis, who was working his way up the rankings, faced a tough test in his next outing when he met the No. 2 ranked Robert Whittaker at UFC 290. Du Plessis continued his rise, knocking out the former UFC champion in the UFC middleweight title eliminator and earning another 'Performance of the Night' bonus.
More important than the bonus was the title shot Du Plessis received for that win. He faced then-champion Sean Strickland in January, taking the title from Strickland in a 'Fight of the Night' bonus-winning scrap
In his first title defense Du Plessis picked up an August 2024 submission win over former UFC middleweight champ Israel Adesanya.
Du Plessis most recently faced Strickland in a rematch at UFC 312 in early February of this year. Du Plessis won that contest via unanimous decision.
I wrote of the champ after that fight, "Dricus du Plessis looked much more controlled and less reckless at UFC 312 than in many of his previous battles. He mixed up his striking techniques and targets against Sean Strickland, landed the more powerful blows, and didn't put himself in too many awkward positions.
"Du Plessis did a much better job in his UFC 312 rematch against Strickland in shutting down his foe's offense. In the first fight, Strickland landed 173 of 408 significant strikes. While in the rematch, Strickland was held to 128 landed strikes on 263 attempts. Meanwhile, Du Plessis increased his landed strikes and landing percentage from the first fight to the second. In the first battle, Du Plessis landed 137 of 354 attempts for a landing rate of 38 percent. At UFC 312, the champ landed 147 of 314 attempts for a striking rate of 46 percent.
'Du Plessis has defended the UFC middleweight crown twice while going 9-0 in the UFC. Despite his winning ways, the champ remains a bit of an enigma because his style shouldn't work — but it does.'
Chimaev (14-0) is the No. 3 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings. The 30-year-old made his UFC debut in July 2020 with a second-round submission win over John Phillips. He followed that victory with a first-round TKO over Rhys McKee 10 days later, breaking the UFC record for the quickest turnaround between UFC wins in the modern era. Then, in September, Chimaev knocked out Gerald Meerschaert.
Things slowed down for Chimaev after that. He was booked to face Leon Edwards in December 2020, but that matchup never came to be despite multiple attempts to make the fight happen. The reason behind the numerous cancellations of Edwards vs. Chimaev was COVID-19.
When Chimaev finally returned to the Octagon in October 2021, he made short work of Li Jingliang, scoring a submission at 3:16 of Round 1.
In his next bout, Chimaev went the distance for the first time in his career, picking up a victory over Gilbert Burns. He followed that with a submission over Kevin Holland.
A break of more than a year followed that victory. Chimaev's next outing was an October 2023 matchup against Kamaru Usman, a fight that Chimaev won via decision.
A year after that, Chimaev made short work of Robert Whittaker, defeating the ex-UFC middleweight champ via submission (face crank) in the first round of their UFC 308 scrap.
Chimaev opened as the -190 betting favorite over Du Plessis, who was initially listed as the +155 betting underdog. The betting line has shifted. Today, the challenger is -250, while the champ is +200.
Bettors seem split on the UFC 319 main event. Sixty-five percent of the bets are on Du Plessis, while 77 percent of the handle is on Chimaev.
If Khamzat Chimaev figures out Dricus du Plessis he will be the first UFC fighter to do so. Du Plessis is an anomaly He doesn't have great technical skills, but he doesn't lose under the UFC. On paper he shouldn't be a UFC champion, but he is.
As for Chimaev, he too is a fighter that we have questions about. He has good technical grappling skills and is an explosive starter, but he has very questionable cardio.
Most of the talk around this fight is that if Du Plessis can survive the first round he should be able to take over with his striking and rack up points for the win, but that's a big if when it comes to someone as aggressive and explosive as Chimaev.
The betting pick is for Du Plessis to win a decision or via late knockout. However, a pick for Chimaev to win via early submission is not out of line.
UFC Tonight - UFC 319 Fight Card C0-Main Event: Lerone Murphy Vs. Aaron Pico
Lerone Murphy (16-0-1) opened his UFC career with a 2019 draw against Zubaira Tukhugov. Since then, the 34 year old has done nothing but win. Murphy has gone 8-0 with the UFC since that draw, most recently beating former UFC interim title challenger Josh Emmett by decision. Before that April 2025 victory, Murphy picked up wins over Edson Barboza and Dan Ige.
Murphy is the No. 6 ranked fighter in the official UFC 145-pound division.
Aaron Pico (13-4) joined the UFC as a free agent earlier this year. Pico was with Bellator for his entire MMA career before departing as a free agent. The 28-year-old had an up-and-down run with the promotion, but he enters UFC Abu Dhabi on a three-fight winning streak. His record in his past 10 fights is 9-1. His only loss during that span, which dates back to January 2020, is a October 2022 TKO loss to Jeremy Kennedy in a fighter were the doctor stopped the bout because Pico dislocated his shoulder.
When announcing the initial UFC 319 co-main event of Movsar Evloev vs. Pico, UFC CEO Dana White called Pico, 'the guy most people consider to be the top free agent in the world.'
White added, 'Aaron Pico is a ridiculously violent striker and a very high-level grappler. Pico has had hype behind him since he was a teenager because of his skill and fighting style, which people compare him to the likes of Justin Gaethje or Dustin Poirier.'
The Pico vs. Evloev fight fell apart in mid-July when Evloev was pulled from the card due to illness.
Pico opened as a -170 betting favorite over the +140 Murphy. Those odds have held.
Murphy has picked up 58 percent of the bets, while Pico has 62 percent of the handle.
Lerone Murphy is a very good striker who manages distance well while being good at target selection, employing better-than-average footwork. Murphy's takedown defense is 52 percent, but he does not accept being on the mat, doing his best to get back to his feet and getting the fight back to where he is at his best, which is striking.
Aaron Pico is a very talented wrestler who left the sport to pursue MMA. He signed with Bellator as a teenager in 2014 and spent his entire career with the promotion before entering free agency. As good as his wrestling skills are, Pico is unafraid to mix it up in the striking department, where he has improved a great deal since his first MMA fights. He is very well-rounded and aggressive. Don't let the four losses on Pico's record fool you; three of those came in his first seven fights when he was still learning the sport. His other loss was a TKO injury.
What scares me about Pico is his aggression and willingness to get into a firefight on the feet, and that is not the right approach in this fight. I also think Pico will be focused on putting on a show for the UFC and its fans, which is also dangerous against Murphy.
Pico has all the skills to win this fight, and he should win, but the pick is to go with the underdog money and a Murphy decision win.
Stay tuned for more coverage from the UFC 319 fight card. Including live UFC 319 results, reactions, recaps and video highlights during tonight's event.
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