2025 NFL Draft: Our favorite bets ahead of Thursday night's first round

Yahoo

21-05-2025

The 2025 NFL Draft is almost here and there are plenty of scenarios to bet on at BetMGM. The sportsbook has markets from first overall pick — Cam Ward has overwhelming odds to go No. 1 to the Titans — to the first team to draft an offensive lineman (hint: probably the New England Patriots).
With Thursday's first round just days away, here are some of our favorite bets for the first 32 picks.
Nick Bromberg: The Carolina Panthers need an outside linebacker. They have been looking for stability at the position since the departure of Thomas Davis after 13 seasons in 2018. Why not try to find the next Davis from the same school? Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker is +145 to go at No. 8, the spot the Panthers currently hold in the draft.
Carolina could be a team looking to trade back, especially if another team feels it needs to jump the New Orleans Saints to get a quarterback like Shedeur Sanders. But with the lack of action in the first round so far — and the depth of this draft making teams maybe want to trade around much more outside the top 15 — Walker feels like a great bet if the Panthers stay put.
Frank Schwab: This draft could get wild. There's not much separation between players who will go in the bottom half of the top 10 and those who will go 20 or more picks later. Some bets with long odds will cash. I'm looking for a way to fade the consensus pick of Ashton Jeanty at No. 6. I don't buy that the Raiders will pick a running back that high. They have too many other needs. And there's a chance Jeanty could end up in the top five. Missouri offensive tackle Armand Membou is +300 to go sixth overall, and he fits a big need. I think cornerback Jahdae Barron (+3000) is worth a shot, too. Remember, Pete Carroll's Seattle Seahawks routinely made picks nobody saw coming.
NB: The Super Bowl champions could follow a familiar draft plan at the conclusion of Thursday night's first round. The Eagles lost Milton Williams to free agency and Brandon Graham to retirement after they took down the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Howie Roseman has never been shy about drafting defensive linemen, and while the Eagles still have plenty of talent up front, they do have a couple of gaps to fill.
That's why I love the Eagles taking a defensive lineman or edge rusher with their first pick at -105. The defensive line is one of the deepest positions in this draft, and there should be plenty of options available for Philly. Especially if the Chiefs go with an offensive lineman at No. 31. Kansas City is -105 to take an offensive lineman and +160 to take a defensive lineman.
FS: I thought Saints picking quarterback first was a good play, but that went from +300 to -160 with the news Derek Carr might not play this season. So move on to the 10th pick and the Bears. Unless Ashton Jeanty falls, tight end seems like a good bet for Chicago. The Bears taking a tight end first is +310, and it doesn't matter if the Bears prefer Tyler Warren or Colston Loveland.
NB: I don't think Jeanty makes it out of the top 10 and could go exactly at No. 10. That's the spot the Bears currently occupy and it's way too easy to envision former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson drafting Jeanty to pair with D'Andre Swift in the backfield like Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit.
Could someone jump ahead of the Bears to pick Jeanty? Absolutely. The Raiders make sense at No. 6. But like Frank said earlier, Las Vegas has far too many needs to pick a running back at No. 6. The Bears at +450 feels like great value … but watch out for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are suddenly the co-favorites to land Jeanty along with the Raiders at +120. Do the markets know something we don't?
FS: The Broncos haven't been shy that they're drafting a running back. Omarion Hampton would be fine at No. 20. But Sean Payton has a long history of moving up, especially to get a player he covets. Everyone agrees Jeanty is on a different plane than Hampton. I think Payton and the Broncos make a very bold move up, and trade into the top 10, maybe even the top five, to get Jeanty. The Broncos drafting Jeanty is +1500 (a shift from +2000 last week) and I'm buying it. And if that happens, grab Jeanty to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, too.
[Related: 'A necessary evil' — Why bookmakers hate the NFL Draft]
NB: There's no player with a bigger first-round variation than Sanders. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go at No. 2 or No. 22. It all depends on what team likes his skill set and needs a quarterback. The Browns are favored at +200, though Sanders' college teammate Travis Hunter seems to make more sense in Cleveland.
The most logical outcome feels like the Saints at +350, but I have little confidence in that. If you wanted to make a small-dollar flier, Sanders to the Raiders at +1200 could be worth a shot. Las Vegas really needs a quarterback.
FS: Make no mistake, where Sanders lands will be the story of the draft. And we're no closer to answering that question than we were a couple of months ago. I still think the Saints take him, but I don't discount the noise that they prefer Jaxson Dart. There's a reason the Sanders-to-Saints line moved from +120 to +350 over the weekend. If the Saints pick Dart — or pass on both of them because they'd rather lose a lot of games and be in the Arch Manning sweepstakes next year — then good luck projecting Sanders' landing spot. Steelers at +250 is worth a shot. I have little confidence in any pick here.
NB: Tetairoa McMillan is +300 to go in the top 10, and you can make a case for him for numerous teams. The Jaguars could use another pass-catcher, and he'd pair well with Brian Thomas. Even though I like Jalon Walker to Carolina, the Panthers would be well served with another wideout for Bryce Young's development. And the Saints could use him too, if they don't go with a quarterback or an offensive lineman.
For clarity, we defined a long shot as anyone with plus odds to go in the top 10. BetMGM had seven players outside of Cam Ward (Will Campbell, Mason Graham, Ashton Jeanty, Jalon Walker, Armond Membou, Shedeur Sanders and Tyler Warren) with better than even-money odds to get picked in the top 10.
FS: NFL teams are risk averse. And Michigan cornerback Will Johnson has risk. Johnson missed the last half of last season with a turf toe injury, then didn't run the 40 due to injuries in pre-draft workouts. Why risk it when Texas' Jahdae Barron has fewer questions and comparable talent? Barron is 9-to-1 to be a top 10 pick. I think he'll be the first cornerback drafted, which puts him in play in the top 10, too. I'll also mention Colston Loveland at +450 as a top-10 pick, because he and Tyler Warren seem to be 1a and 1b at the tight end position, and all it would take is a team like the Bears preferring Loveland and taking him. It's also possible Warren and Loveland both end up as top-10 picks.
NB: I'll go out on a limb and say that the run on quarterbacks will happen in the second round and the under is the play. I do think that Shedeur Sanders is ultimately a first-round pick, but he could be waiting a bit for his name to be called. Players like Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe feel like prime candidates to go on Friday.
I'd be more confident in three quarterbacks in the first round if Tyler Shough, 25, was a few years younger. Shough, who was born in 1999, has become a pre-draft favorite with his talent as a passer. But he just finished his seventh season of college football and the 2024 season with Louisville was the first time he'd played in 12 games. It wouldn't be a shock if Shough was the third QB taken. He'd be a first-round pick if he were 22 years old.
FS: I think a third quarterback will probably go in the first round. Desperation and all. Last week, the odds were way off. The over of 2.5 quarterbacks in the first round was -500. That was corrected in a big way, with the odds on the over shifting to -185 over the weekend. That seems like a more accurate line. There are paths in which only two quarterbacks (maybe even one?) go in the first round. It's not like Shedeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe or anyone else has a clear first-round grade. Under 2.5 QBs in the first round, which had +340 odds last week, shifted to +140. Even if you think three or more go in the first round, there are many paths in which that doesn't happen. The value is gone in the over, but I still think that's the right side at plus odds.