Met Office issues SIX new warnings as thunderstorms, hail & flash floods to strike huge swathe of UK
Lightning, hail and thunderstorms are set to batter Brits across the next two days.
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Telegraph
37 minutes ago
- Telegraph
Channel migrant crossings to double if Starmer crackdown fails
The number of illegal migrants crossing the Channel is forecast to double this year unless new government measures can curb the flow, independent modelling shows. The research by Richard Wood, one of Britain's top modelling forecasters, takes account of not only weather and sea conditions but also includes asylum grant rates, illegal immigration flows into Europe and dinghy size. His analysis, originally based on five years of data up to the end of 2024, has been accurate in forecasting the numbers reaching the UK so far this year based on 'favourable' weather conditions. More than 23,000 migrants have reached the UK this year, the highest in the first six months of any year since the first arrivals in 2018, which is nearly exactly what Mr Wood's good weather model predicted. He has now updated his analysis, based on the latest asylum grant rates, increasing dinghy size and immigration flows into the EU, and re-run the modelling based on weather data over the past 16 years. The data suggest that unless Sir Keir Starmer is successful in his attempt to stop the people smugglers, migrant crossings will rocket this year. The Prime Minister has negotiated a 'one in,one out' deal with the French by which illegal migrants coming to the UK will be swapped for people who are able to come here legally. If the weather is as good as it was in 2024, when there was a surge in crossings in the second half of the year, then the total number reaching the UK by the end of 2025 will be 44,628, according to Mr Wood's model. This is just below the number of migrant arrivals in 2022, the highest on record, when 45,774 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats. If, however, the weather is as bad as it was in the second half of 2023, then the total number crossing will be as low as 36,965. This would still be the second highest total on record. The data provide a benchmark against which the Government's new policy measures could be judged to establish if they have an effect on reducing the crossings. Mr Wood said: 'With the 37th UK-France Summit including various deterrent and enforcement pledges for reducing small-boat crossings, these predictions may serve as a useful benchmark against which progress can be assessed.' As well as the 'one in, one out' deal struck with Sir Keir, France is preparing to introduce tougher tactics where officers from an elite police unit will intercept the people smugglers' boats at sea within 300 metres of the coast in an attempt to stop them leaving the coast. They have also been experimenting with jet skis laying nets to snag the dinghies' propellers. Last week, Sir Keir secured a pledge from Friedrich Merz, the Germany's chancellor, that the country would introduce a new law by the end of the year to enable police to seize boats for use by people smugglers in the Channel. The model, which is currently being peer-reviewed for publication in a migration journal, draws on data from sources including the Met Office, Channel Coastal Observatory, Home Office and European Border and Coast Guard Agency. It predicts the daily number of small-boat migrant arrivals for scenarios based on weather and sea conditions, EU illegal immigration, and other factors which may have a deterrent effect. It has two parts: the first that estimates the probability of a day being 'viable', and the second that estimates the number of migrant arrivals on such viable days. Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: 'What we already know for sure is that 2025 to date has been the worst year in history for illegal immigrants crossing the channel – it's up 50 per cent versus last year. 'The Government's laughable claim to smash the gangs lies in tatters. Now they think that confiscating mobile phones and sending a tiny number of people to France will make a difference 'Only a removals deterrent will end this madness – where every illegal immigrant is immediately removed upon arrival to their country of origin or to a safe third country. But Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer are too weak to do that.'
Daily Record
6 hours ago
- Daily Record
When will the heatwave return in Scotland after days of downpours?
Scots will be hoping the elements settle from hereon in so we can enjoy the rest of our summer in peace Scotland is still reeling from torrential downpours over the weekend. Roads were left underwater, bus services were forced to divert, and parts of the rail network shut down as a result of three yellow weather warnings in a row. For three days straight, much of the country saw huge volumes of rainfall in a short amount of time. Fifteen areas got put under flood alert as a result of the deluge, while thunder and lightning posed a danger to life. The last warning was lifted at 6am today, Tuesday, July 22, and it is hoped the elements will be more settled going forward. After all, we are in the height of summer, and it would be nice for the Scottish weather to reflect that. So, after the downpours, is there a chance of a heatwave returning to Scotland? Aidan McGivern, Met Office meteorologist, has categorically ruled out a heatwave. But only for this week. Looking ahead, WXCharts, a weather forecast model that uses MetDesk data, has set out August 1 as the date Scots should keep an eye on if they're hoping to ditch the umbrella for a sun hat, and the raincoat for some sun cream. On this date, the max temperature will hit 23C at around 6pm. The next day, highs of 20C are predicted for around 12pm, while on Sunday, the thermometer is due to ping at a high 18C, again at around tea time. However, although August 1 will be toasty, there is certain criteria the Scottish weather needs to meet to tip us into heatwave territory. And it doesn't quite look that we will meet it just yet. In the UK, a heatwave officially takes place when a location records at least three days in a row with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold. This threshold varies across the UK. For instance, if Dundee records 25 degrees over three consecutive days, that would be classed as a heatwave. As the first weekend in August doesn't stay steady at 23C - instead dipping down to 20C and 18C - it appears unlikely to happen. The Met Office's long range forecast for July 27 until August 5 says the best chance we have of seeing the sun is if we're in the south and east. The southwest may have a look in, too, but only if high pressure builds into that area. Other than that, the outlook isn't all that convincing, either. "A weather regime dominated by westerly winds is likely at first," the Met Office statement reads. "While showers or longer spells of rain will remain possible for all parts early in the period, the focus of wet weather will likely increasingly be focussed across the west and northwest, especially over hills where rain could be prolonged. Join the Daily Record WhatsApp community! Get the latest news sent straight to your messages by joining our WhatsApp community today. You'll receive daily updates on breaking news as well as the top headlines across Scotland. No one will be able to see who is signed up and no one can send messages except the Daily Record team. All you have to do is click here if you're on mobile, select 'Join Community' and you're in! If you're on a desktop, simply scan the QR code above with your phone and click 'Join Community'. We also treat our community members to special offers, promotions, and adverts from us and our partners. If you don't like our community, you can check out any time you like. To leave our community click on the name at the top of your screen and choose 'exit group'. "The highest chance of drier and sunnier weather is expected to the east of hills, and across south and eastern areas. Later in the period, if high pressure builds into the southwest, settled weather may develop there, too. "It will be breezy at times, especially further north. "Temperatures are most likely to be near to average or slightly above average for the time of year."
Sky News
7 hours ago
- Sky News
Possible tornado spotted in Yorkshire
Footage has shown a possible tornado forming in Yorkshire. The video on social media showed the phenomenon above Marsden, near Huddersfield, on Monday morning. The Met Office said it could be a tornado or funnel cloud. A funnel cloud, or "tuba", is made up of a spinning vortex of cloud that reaches towards the ground. It only becomes a tornado when it makes contact with the ground. "We've seen a few videos like this over recent days," the Met Office said in a post on X. "When you think of tornadoes, you might imagine the massive twisters tearing through the central US. "But did you know that the UK has one of the highest numbers of tornadoes per land area in the world?" It said the UK typically sees around 30-35 tornadoes each year, though it is "very rare that they are strong enough to cause any significant damage". What is a funnel cloud? The Met Office said funnel clouds are formed when a rotating column of wind draws in cloud droplets, making a region of intense low pressure visible. "They are formed in the same way as a tornado building around this localised area of intensely low pressure and are typically associated with the formation of cumulonimbus thunderclouds," it added. It said they almost always form from cumulonimbus clouds, "meaning that heavy rain, hail, thunder and lightning can all be expected". If a funnel cloud reaches the ground and produces a tornado, "very strong winds can be expected in the immediate vicinity of the vortex potentially causing severe damage", the Met Office said.
