NDIS shake-up sets stage for summit showdown on budget cuts and tax reform as roundtable enters final day

Australia Broadcast Center

a day ago

Union bosses, business chiefs, ministers and bureaucrats have been locked in parliament's Cabinet Room for two days, stripped of their phones and fuelled by sandwiches and sushi, in the hope they might hash out ways to fix Australia's productivity problem.
Today may prove the trickiest yet as the conversation shifts from broad ambition to the hard realities of looming structural deficits and tax reform.
The stage for cutting government spending was set yesterday by Health and Disability Minister Mark Butler's announcement that Labor would seek to curb the NDIS's growth to between 5 and 6 per cent annually. That would bring the $40 billion scheme into line with Medicare and other major programs.
The question now is how.
Mr Butler admitted his comments would be "hard for some parents to hear". Too many autistic children, he argued, were entering the scheme and eligibility rules would need to change fundamentally.
He said without reform, the NDIS risked losing its "social licence" as costs ballooned and public trust eroded under perceptions of rorting.
As part of the transition, the federal government would tip $2 billion into Thriving Kids, a new program outside the NDIS aimed at supporting children with mild to moderate developmental delays and autism. The scheme, he said, should be up and running by July next year.
The Coalition meanwhile has pledged to work constructively with the government on "sensible NDIS reform" to secure the scheme's future, but accused Labor of over-promising and under-delivering.
"Too often, Labor makes announcements but fails on delivery. There is still no agreement with the states and territories on vital NDIS reforms in relation to foundational supports," the opposition said.
"Further to this, the states and territories will carry much of the responsibility for broader disability and educational support services for children in particular under the minister's plans."
State governments told the ABC they were still waiting on detail about how those responsibilities would be resourced.
Queensland Minister for Disability Services, Amanda Camm, said Mr Butler's speech was the first she had heard of the Thriving Kids program, but added she looked forward to working with the Federal Government, "given the NDIS is their responsibility."
A spokesperson for the Northern Territory government said states and territories were only briefed on the plans on Wednesday afternoon.
Ahead of the announcement, NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey told the ABC the states needed more clarity from Canberra.
"There's a very complex interaction between who needs to do what, how we're going to have to pay for it, but equally, how are we making sure that our NDIS system is interfacing with our health system?" he asked.
That NDIS shake-up now sets the stage for today's conversations. The government delivered back-to-back budget surpluses last term, but deficits loom as permanent features of the fiscal landscape unless structural pressures are brought under control.
Defence, aged care, hospitals, Medicare and child care are all expanding commitments that will be under the microscope of attendees today.
Treasury Secretary Jenny Wilkinson will open proceedings with a keynote speech on budget sustainability. She will stress the need for efficiency, better service delivery, and smarter use of technology to contain costs and preserve outcomes for government services. Her comments are expected to lead into a discussion on whether digitisation and AI can improve the quality and delivery of government services.
And later, participants will turn to the prickly issue of tax reform. In the lead-up to the forum, union leaders and welfare groups called for changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions, while business groups backed in the Productivity Commission's recommendations for lower company tax rates.
Attendees will also examine what can be done to navigate the reality that working-age Australians will shoulder more of the tax burden in the years ahead, generating the lion's share of income tax revenue and absorbing bracket creep that will steadily push up average tax rates.
In June, Treasurer Jim Chalmers told the National Press Club that "no sensible progress can be made on productivity, resilience or budget sustainability without proper consideration of more tax reform."
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has since downplayed the prospect of any immediate changes. Instead, the ideas raised this week could shape the next three budgets, or be taken to the Australian people at the next election.