Donald Trump is on the verge of winning his trade war
The issue is not to defend Trump's trade policy – the WSJ called it "the dumbest trade war in history" – but to analyze whether the president is achieving the goals he set for himself. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, is set to meet the US head of state in Scotland on Sunday, July 27, in a last-ditch effort to reach a deal before the August 1 deadline to avoid 30% tariffs on European goods.
The WSJ columnist recalled that the president's intention was to impose the highest possible tariffs to protect American industry and fund all or part of the income tax. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent used the argument of tariffs as a negotiating tool in an attempt to reassure US partners. But that was not Trump's concern.
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France 24
11 minutes ago
- France 24
Displaced Cambodians return home after Thailand truce
People who fled the Cambodia-Thailand border return to their homes in Oddar Meanchey province The territorial conflict, which ignited into open combat on Thursday, stems from an obscure cartographical dispute dating back decades, and the truce was sealed after interventions from world leaders including US President Donald Trump. Back in his Cambodian village of Kouk Khpos -- about 10 kilometres (six miles) from the Thai border -- 30-year-old farmer Lat Laem is grateful for his homecoming, and more quotidian concerns. Lat Laem said he was working in his rice field when the first blasts broke out, heralding the start of fighting © TANG CHHIN Sothy, TANG CHHIN SOTHY / AFP "I feel happy to be back to my newly built home so I can clean the floor," he told AFP, after a two-hour trip trailing his family home on a tractor through shuttered villages and empty streets. Lat Laem said he was working in his rice field when the first blasts broke out, heralding the start of fighting that was waged with artillery, rockets, jets and ground troops. At least 43 people have been killed on both sides in the deadliest clashes in years over a scattering of ancient contested temples on Thailand and Cambodia's 800-kilometre border. The truce came into effect at midnight on Monday, and while Thailand accused Cambodia of violating the pact with skirmishes, peace has generally prevailed. Hope intact When the strikes started raining down around his home, Lat Laem says he took refuge in his brother's bunker -- built because border residents are accustomed to sporadic strife. He was initially reluctant to abandon his simple white home, so recently constructed that he has yet to hold a house-warming. When the drumbeat of blasts became too much to bear, he fled -- joining around 140,000 others in Cambodia, and 180,000 more in Thailand who were forced to quit their homes. He left with his wife and daughter, his sister-in-law and her children on a tractor-drawn wagon known locally as an "iron cow" -- piled with a few scant belongings including cooking gear and a fan -- and headed to a shelter 50 kilometres away. While they were gone the border was scarred by destruction, as both sides traded fire and allegations about the use of cluster bombs, the targeting of civilian homes and even of hospitals. Evacuated far from his prized property, Lat Laem was consumed by anxiety it would be claimed by the conflict. "I was worried that my house that I spent all that money to build might be damaged -- that would upset me," said Lat Laem. "I could not sleep." But pacing the perimeter of his own patch of land back near the contested frontier he confirms it is free of shrapnel scars -- totally undamaged by the turmoil. "It was not hit, it is intact," he marvelled. "Now I am happy that it is all good." © 2025 AFP
Euronews
11 minutes ago
- Euronews
China announces fertility subsidy program as births hit historic lows
Long seen in the West as a byword for the Chinese Communist Party's heavy-handedness, the one-child policy became a trope for Chinese authoritarianism. While the policy was officially scrapped in 2015 after years of looser enforcement, China now faces unprecedentedly low birth rates — and has announced it will begin offering childcare subsidies for the first, second and third child up to the age of three, starting this year. Under the plan, families will receive what the government calls a 'fertility bonus' of 3,600 yuan or just over €430 per child until the age of three. While the national government will pay this 'base' amount, local authorities are free to top it up depending on their own resources. The CCP said the nationwide rollout of cash subsidies will help ease the pressure of childcare expenses and will help to prevent a further decline in the fertility rate. Crucially, the subsidies will be tax-exempt and excluded from calculations of household or individual income, ensuring they do not affect eligibility for minimum living allowances or extreme poverty assistance. Why now? In 2024, China's total fertility (TFR) rate — the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime according to current patterns — was around 1.15 children per woman. That's among the world's lowest and below the so-called 'replacement level' of 2.1, meaning the baseline for the population size to stay the same. Demographers use these rates to measure whether a population is shrinking, growing or staying the same. The goal of the new policy would not be to expand the population, but to keep it at a relatively similar size without seeing it skew too heavily towards an ageing population. The latter is a problem faced by many European economies. According to the World Health Organization, by 2040, around 28% of China's population will be over the age of 60, threatening to disrupt what used to be a growing labour force and competitive wages. This also skews the dependency ratio, with funds in the economy going to supporting elderly relatives, increased healthcare costs and pensions. In 2022, China's population shrank for the first time since 1961, marking a yearly drop of 850,000 people as deaths outnumbered births. In 2023, the worst year on record, the population fell by approximately 2.08 million, and the decline continued in 2024 — improving only slightly — as it fell by 1.39mn. Chinese growth miracle is reversed In 1978, China went through political and economic reforms, including opening up parts of its economy to combat rural poverty and absorbing hundreds of millions of workers into its labour force. It is widely considered one of the fastest economic transformations in history, with China becoming the biggest net exporter in the world and its economy growing an average of about 9.5% per year until 2018. Of course, the economic clout came with political and diplomatic power. Now, the population decline could lead to China falling on the wrong side of the demographic dividend as its pool of available labour shrinks. Ultra-low fertility economies China is not the only Asian country to suffer from this problem and its effects on the economy. Several Asian countries are now considered ultra-low fertility economies, where population decline has become very steep and hard to reverse — even with pro-natalist policies like the child subsidy. A mix of economic, cultural and demographic dynamics may reinforce a cycle of fewer births in these countries. Economically, this erodes the very demographic dividend that once fuelled the explosive growth of East Asia's richest countries.
Euronews
11 minutes ago
- Euronews
German politicians furious at von der Leyen over new EU-US trade deal
German politicians across party lines denounced European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday, calling for her resignation after she agreed to asymmetric trade terms that impose 15% US tariffs on EU exports while granting Americans duty-free access to European markets. The deal, struck under pressure from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz both in public and behind the scenes to avoid threatened 30% punitive tariffs, triggered unprecedented cross-party criticism in Germany, where lawmakers described the arrangement as a "capitulation" and "betrayal of Europe". Merz himself initially appeared satisfied. "With the agreement, we have succeeded in averting a trade conflict that would have hit the export-oriented German economy hard," the German chancellor said on Sunday. By Monday evening, however, Merz suddenly had a change of heart, expressing strong reservations. The agreed tariffs were now a "considerable burden" for the German economy, in the eyes of Merz. Under the agreement announced Sunday, EU products face 15% US tariffs while American goods enter Europe levy-free. For the EU, the US tariff rate for steel and aluminium imports will remain at 50%. The EU also committed to purchasing $750 billion in US energy and pledged $600 billion in European corporate investments in America. The deal led to an unprecedented wave of shock and outrage across all camps of German politics. Now, for the first time in a long time, all German parties are criticising the move. "Due to pressure from the German chancellor, the EU has agreed to a deal that abandons fundamental principles of rules-based global trade. Instead of long-term stability, the agreement creates uncertainty," Sandra Detzer from the Greens said, slamming the deal at the Bundestag. In fact, this agreement hits Germany particularly hard. According to the Institute for Economic Research (IfW), the deal will cost the German economy around €6.5 billion in terms of its GDP in the first year. "This is an inadequate compromise and sends a fatal signal to the closely interlinked economies on both sides of the Atlantic," warned Wolfgang Niedermark from the Federation of German Industries (BDI). A rate of 15% is set to have immense adverse effects, and the lack of an agreement for steel exports was an "additional low blow", he pointed out. 'Von der Leyen should resign for this worst deal ever' German EU politician Fabio De Masi (BSW) is also shocked. "This bad deal will do immense economic damage to Europe - it is a betrayal of Europe. Mrs von der Leyen should resign for this worst deal ever," he told Euronews. "While the US is to export duty-free to the EU, EU exporters will be subject to a 15% tariff. In addition, European companies are to make direct investments worth hundreds of billions of US dollars." "So Trump is hitting us with new punitive tariffs and, as business, we are filling his order books with purchases of dirty US fracking gas and defence equipment." EU politician Svenja Hahn (FDP) concurs. "15% tariffs are better than the threatened 30 - but the deal is not a success. At best, it is damage control," she told Euronews. The deal struck on Sunday represents "unbalanced to the detriment of the EU, contains no substantial successes" and weakens "rules-based trade". "Ursula von der Leyen has damaged the EU's reputation and economic strength with her weak conduct of negotiations, she must finally deliver: less bureaucracy, a strong internal market and real progress on free trade agreements, especially Mercosur," Hahn explained. German-Polish MEP Tomasz Froelich (AfD) told Euronews that the agreement reached is "not a deal", but "a capitulation of the EU", as there had been no serious attempt to exert pressure on the US, according to him. "This declaration of bankruptcy stands in stark contrast to the EU's otherwise grandiloquent behaviour on the international stage: confrontation in all directions, leaving hardly any options, especially in the area of energy imports," he explained. "I will work in the EU Parliament to ensure that this humiliating and ruinous agreement is prevented after all," Froelich, who serves as the first deputy head of the AfD delegation at the European Parliament, added. Governing parties lob criticism too Ruling CDU/CSU lawmaker Johannes Winkel stepped up to the plate. "This humiliation of Europe by the US must above all be a reason for self-criticism," Winkel warned on X. "Energy saving, bureaucracy, ESG instead of innovation, growth and technology. This politically motivated economic self-deprecation must end." Others representing the coalition partner SPD also dared to come forward with particularly harsh criticism. Bremen's mayor, Andreas Bovenschulte said on X: "The worst thing is how our EU leader is allowing herself to be humiliated into licking Trump's boots and flattering him as a 'tough - even fair - dealmaker'. Not a spark of honour in her body." The SPD politician later walked back on a part of his statement. "I take back the honour thing. That was a bit harsh," he said. In his hometown of Bremen, thousands of jobs at the ArcelorMittal steel plant are in jeopardy. Bavaria's Minister President Markus Söder (CSU) was honest and made it clear on Monday: things cannot go on like this. "The customs deal has prevented the worst," Söder said, "but the situation is now more difficult than before, especially for the automotive industry." "That's why it must be clear: There must be no additional taxes in Europe, as the EU is currently planning." Relief would now be needed to offset the tariffs. Söder criticised von der Leyen: "We simply need to do less of a Green Deal in Europe and more of an Economic Deal." Economic expert and longstanding German MEP Markus Ferber (CSU) also made it clear to the Bild newspaper: "If you consider that our offer was the complete elimination of all tariffs, then the deal is not a great success." "Fifteen per cent makes European products massively more expensive in the US and will hit the German economy particularly hard. Even if a non-agreement would have been even more expensive, a good deal looks different."
