Treasury yields inch lower as investors grapple with recession fears
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Thursday as investors weighed GDP figures for the first quarter, which showed a much-dreaded contraction in the U.S. economy.
At 5:45 a.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down over 2 basis points at 4.148%. The 2-year Treasury yield also dipped more than 1 basis point to 3.607%.
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions.
On Wednesday, data showed that gross domestic product, a total sum of all goods and services produced from January through March, fell at an annual pace of 0.3%, the first negative reading since 2022. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were expecting a gain of 0.4% after GDP rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
"Maybe some of this negativity is due to a rush to bring in imports before the tariffs go up, but there is simply no way for policy advisors to sugar-coat this. Growth has simply vanished," Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, said.
However, Wednesday's personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation measure — posted a 3.6% gain for the quarter, up sharply from the 2.4% increase in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, core PCE was up 3.5%.
With the Federal Reserve meeting next week, from May 6-7, there's some speculation that economic contraction could push the central bank to lower interest rates later in the year. Although investors are pricing in a 95% chance of no change to rates at the May meeting, they're still expecting a total of four cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Investors will be watching further economic data on Thursday including the weekly jobless claims data, insights on the U.S. manufacturing sector, and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
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