Vodafone Idea share price target above Rs 12? What brokerages say

Economic Times

2 days ago

Vodafone Idea shares: The brokerage firm observed that VIL's Q4FY25 results fell short of expectations. The company also saw a loss of 1.6 million subscribers during the quarter, which was lower than the 5.1–5.2 million lost in Q2 and Q3, but slightly better than UBS's forecast of a 1.8 million decline.
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UBS: Buy| Target price: Rs 12.10
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Nuvama: Hold| Target price: Rs 7.5
Macquarie: Underperform| Target price: Rs 6.50
Motilal Oswal: Sell| Target price: Rs 6.5
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Amid persistent concerns over subscriber erosion and a heavy debt burden, Vodafone Idea (VIL) shares have drawn the attention of several brokerage firms, with some projecting the stock could rise to as high as Rs 12.10.The company posted soft Q4FY25 results wherein the consolidated net loss was reported at Rs 7,166.1 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 (Q4FY25), marking a 6.6% improvement from the Rs 7,674.59 crore loss reported in the same quarter last year.Further, the company is not able to see any visibility on relief on its long-standing Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues, amounting to nearly Rs 30,000 crore.Following this, analysts across brokerage firms have weighed in on their views about the stock. Here's what they say:The brokerage firm noted that VIL's Q4FY25 results were below their expectations. Additionally, the company lost 1.6 million subscribers in Q4 (vs a loss of 5.1-5.2 million in Q2/Q3 and UBS's estimate of 1.8 million subscriber loss in Q4). Overall, the results were slightly lower than the estimates and UBS noted that an eye needs to be kept on the fundraise updates, capex plan, 5G coverage and any potential AGR / spectrum relief measures.According to Nuvama, Vodafone Idea reported in-line Q4FY25 results, with revenue declining 0.9% quarter-on-quarter due to muted ARPU growth, partly attributed to fewer working days in the quarter.Nuvama observed that while subscriber losses have moderated to pre-tariff hike levels, they still impede the company's recovery. The delay in debt funding remains a major overhang on VIL's viability. The brokerage cut its FY26E and FY27E EBITDA estimates by 7% and 4% respectively, citing further dilution from the government's equity holding. VIL is valued at 11x FY27E EV/EBITDA.Global brokerage firm Macquarie reported that VIL posted a weak set of Q4FY25 results, missing estimates due to continued subscriber erosion and higher interest burden. VI's net subscriber base declined by 1.6 million quarter-on-quarter to approximately 198 million, while ARPU rose marginally by 0.6% to Rs 164.Macquarie noted that the company's government dues stood at around US$22.5 billion, with US$4.3 billion of spectrum dues converted to equity, leading to a 49% government shareholding. In contrast, bank and financial liabilities were lower at US$0.3 billion, and the cash balance stood at US$1.2 billion. The board has approved a Rs 200 billion (US$2.3 billion) fundraise via equity, debt, or a hybrid route.The brokerage highlighted that the ongoing erosion in subscribers indicates persistent structural challenges, and despite the government being the largest shareholder, any further equity infusion remains uncertain. Macquarie continues to see industry-wide tailwinds from tariff hikes benefiting Bharti Airtel and Reliance Industries, which it maintains as Outperform-rated stocks.Motilal Oswal also highlighted that Vodafone Idea continues to lose market share to peers due to weaker ARPU conversion, a weaker subscriber mix, and high churn rates. The telco is planning a significant capex cycle of Rs 50,000–Rs 55,000 crore over the next two to three years to bridge the network gap with competitors. However, the brokerage noted that regaining lost subscribers will remain challenging, given rivals' stronger cash flows and deeper financial reserves.Motilal Oswal added that Vodafone Idea's network investments are heavily reliant on fresh debt funding, which itself hinges on continued AGR relief and government support, with an estimated Rs 20,000 crore annual cash shortfall projected through FY26–31. Stabilizing the subscriber base and securing further government relief are seen as crucial to the company's long-term survival.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)