Trump's new tariffs, the Fed's Powell speaks, and jobs numbers: What to watch in the markets this week
President Donald Trump's 'liberation day' is on Wednesday. The president will unveil 'reciprocal tariffs' on many U.S. trading partners, and delayed 25% duties on Mexico and Canada are also scheduled to go into effect.
The announcement won't end the uncertainty over the Trump administration's trade policies, as shown by the back and forth over earlier announcements, and may draw escalation in the former of retaliation and then further U.S. responses, observers have said.
Chris Grisanti, chief market strategist at MAI Capital Management, said last week that he was surprised by the relatively benign market reaction to Trump's auto tariff announcement, which was more hawkish than he'd anticipated. He now expects new duties on April 2 to also be hawkish, possibly followed by another muted reaction from investors.
Economic indicators are also in focus this week, with investors concerned about softening U.S. growth, particularly in the labor market.
Here's what investors will be watching:
The Chicago Business Barometer PMI for March is due at 9:45 a.m. EDT. The index may have fallen to 44.1 from a reading of 45.5 in February, according to the average economist estimate in FactSet (FDS). A reading under 50 indicates shrinking.
The ISM manufacturing index, scheduled for release at 10 a.m., may show a contraction for March — 49.5 — down from 50.3 in February. The JOLTS job opening numbers for February will probably also show a decline, while construction spending may have picked up as weather improved.
Be on the lookout for hoaxes — it's April Fools Day.
Trump is scheduled to unveil 'reciprocal' tariffs on a wide range of U.S. trading partners; his office has yet to announce a time.
Factory orders, scheduled for 10 a.m., may have risen 0.5% in February, slowing from 1.7% in January. The ADP survey at 8:15 a.m. may show that employers added 120,000 jobs in March, up from 77,000 in February.
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler is scheduled to speak at 4:30 p.m. EDT on 'Inflation expectations and monetary policymaking.'
Constellation Brands (STZ), which makes, imports and distributes alcoholic beverages, reports quarterly earnings today. The company's revenue and per-share profit may have been little changed from a year earlier.
Economic data include jobless claims for the week through March 29 and the ISM Services index for March, and the U.S.'s February trade balance.
Fed speakers include Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Governor Lisa Cook.
The U.S. employment report for March is due at 8:30 a.m. EDT, with seasonally adjusted gains in non-farm payrolls expected to slow and the jobless rate projected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%. Wage growth probably held steady.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook at 11:25 EDT. Other central bank speakers include Michael Barr — who will address AI and banking — and Christopher Waller.
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