Why warm weather could drive egg prices up again

Yahoo

28-03-2025

Egg prices have dropped a lot in the last month, down 40% from the end of February, according to the American Enterprise Institute.
But it's a real shame that eggs don't stay fresh for a long, long time so folks can stock up, because some predict that prices will rise again as wild birds start circulating broadly in warm weather, potentially creating a surge in bird flu.
That could create another egg-price crisis and leave consumers shell-shocked yet again.
Newsweek reported that prices have been volatile. On March 3, they were at a historic high of $8.17 a dozen, 'attributed to tight supplies and seasonable demand.'
The article takes its numbers from Trading Economics, which uses government data and showed the prices have fallen to $2.92. In early January, eggs were $5.81. They've slid up and down since.
There's a very strong link between H5N1 avian influenza and the cost of eggs. Since the virus began circulating broadly in the U.S., 166 million egg-laying hens have been from infected farms. That's greatly reduced the number of eggs, which has in turn driven up prices.
FactCheck.org, which is a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center, has slightly different numbers but points to the same issues.
Per the article, 'What is now the largest bird flu outbreak since 2015 has caused an egg shortage, as tens of millions of egg-producing hens have had to be killed to prevent further spread of the virus. As of March 20, more than 168 million birds had been affected in total, according to USDA data. Over 30 million birds from commercial egg layer flocks have been lost in 2025 alone."
Writes AEI senior fellow Scott Gottlieb, 'Demand for eggs will likely remain strong, particularly with the Easter holiday drawing near. And our current respite from avian flu outbreaks may prove short-lived. The avian influenza strains now in circulation have persisted continuously among birds and mammals for nearly two years, and there's growing evidence that it could become a permanent feature of North America — part of a new normal to which the poultry industry must inevitably adjust for both the physical and economic health of Americans.'
Bird flu is spread primarily by wild birds, which infect other animals, including those that eat wild birds. The virus has infected a number of different mammals, including a few humans in the U.S. who have come in close contact, primarily on dairy or poultry farms. Both dairy cows and poultry farms have experienced recent, serious outbreaks.
A number of approaches have been suggested to deal with the egg price conundrum, which is definitely tied into the question about how to tackle bird flu.
A week ago, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is now the country's top health official in his role over the Department of Health and Human Services, suggested that instead of killing infected birds and removing them, farmers 'should consider maybe the possibility of letting it run through the flock so that we can identify the birds and preserve the birds that are immune to it,' as reported by both The New York Times and Fox News.
Others worry that it would decimate the egg industry as so many hens became infected and could no longer supply eggs. And since viruses tend to mutate, allowing bird flu to run unchecked could ramp up the risk that it will change in ways that make it easier to infect other species, including humans.
Per the Times, each infection gives the virus a chance to become more virulent. So far, it doesn't easily spread among people. 'But if H5N1 were allowed to run through a flock of 5 million birds, 'that's literally 5 million chances for that virus to replicate or to mutate,'' Dr. Gail Hansen, former Kansas state veterinarian, told the Times.
Critics also note that it's not known if there would be any hens that are naturally immune. And if so, they might not be immune to a subsequent mutation.
Others, including Gottlieb, believe that strategies to vaccinate egg-laying hens could be explored, though there are potential downsides like 'technological feasibility of mass vaccinations and trade objections; however, they can be addressed by advancing vaccine innovations and increasing biosecurity,' as he put it.
Newsweek notes that 'in February, the (U.S. Department of Agriculture) unveiled a $1 billion, five-point plan to tackle the price of eggs which included an 'additional $500 million for biosecurity measures, $400 million in financial relief for affected farmers, $100 million for vaccine research, action to reduce regulatory burdens and exploring temporary import options.''
President Donald Trump had called for importing eggs from other countries while U.S. prices are high, and this week, Newsweek reported the administration has reached an agreement to import eggs from Turkey and South Korea to help keep prices down.
Easter, by the way, is likely to increase demand, which could also raise egg prices somewhat. As Newsweek reported, 'The USDA has predicted egg prices could soar more than 40% in 2025 and (Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke) Rollins said the Easter season would increase egg demand, resulting in spiking prices.'