Stalled front over Florida fueling heavy rain, flash flooding could gain tropical characteristics this week
MIAMI – Florida is forecast to get soaked with days of heavy rain this week, prompting an elevated risk of flash flooding as an area of low pressure fueled by tropical moisture from the Gulf and Caribbean develops over South Florida. This system could even take on some tropical characteristics by the end of the week.
"I wouldn't be terribly surprised if we saw a low chance off the Southeast coast pop up on the (tropical weather) outlook sometime later today or tomorrow," National Hurricane Center (NHC) Director Michael Brennan told FOX Weather Monday morning, referring to the NHC's seven-day tropical weather outlook.
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While computer forecast models are not in agreement regarding the exact track of this system, South Florida is expected to see the bulk of the rain. Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach could all pick up 3-5 inches of rainfall by Friday.
As the system stalls, a few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday across the Florida Peninsula, where a Level 1 out of 5 risk of severe weather has been issued by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
Meanwhile, a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood threat is posted for South Florida on Monday and Tuesday, according to Noaa's Weather Prediction Center.
"[With] tropical afternoon thundershowers, you've got the heavy rain, the lightning, the wind," FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime warned. "It's everything falling from the sky at that point."
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"It's hard to drive in those situations," FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera added.
Forecasters are closely monitoring this system to see whether it develops any tropical characteristics that would warrant an outlook from the NHC.
The area off the southeastern U.s. coast generally supports tropical development this time of year.
"That's a pretty typical location for formation as we get into June," Brennan said. "This is where we tend to see storms form in June, from the Gulf, across Florida, off the Southeast and mid-Atlantic coast. It's a great reminder that, typically in June, those storms do tend to form pretty close to home, and people need to be ready and keep an eye out."
One major factor in determining tropical development is how close this system stays to land.
"The low is expected to remain either over land or very close to the coast, which would limit any potential for organization early on," the FOX Forecast Center noted.
However, if the system moves off the southeastern U.S. coast, there could be a low chance of tropical development there.
More tropical moisture is expected to arrive in Florida by Thursday, bringing more thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.
The rain from this system should alleviate some of the ongoing drought conditions in Florida as the dry season comes to an end for the Sunshine State.Original article source: Stalled front over Florida fueling heavy rain, flash flooding could gain tropical characteristics this week
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