Monday briefing: The ‘toxic cocktail' of climate denial, federal cuts and the Texas floods

The Guardian

4 days ago

Good morning. The death toll from the catastrophic floods in Texas has climbed to 129, including at least 27 children and counsellors at Camp Mystic in Kerr County.
With more than 160 people still missing, authorities warn that the number of casualties is likely to rise. On Sunday morning, some search operations were cancelled as heavy rain and strong winds battered the state once again.
The flash floods, which swept through large parts of central Texas, are being described as one of the worst natural disasters in the state's history. At Camp Mystic, rain gauges recorded 6.5in (16.5cm) of rainfall in just 180 minutes.
In addition to the human cost, the floods have caused widespread destruction. According to a preliminary estimate by private forecaster AccuWeather, the economic toll could range from $18bn to $22bn (£13.2bn to £16.2bn).
The floods struck as the climate crisis worsens, and as the Trump administration's hollowing out of federal agencies has left critical services such as the National Weather Service under severe strain. The Federal Emergency Management Agency is also facing continued threats of defunding.
Yet, despite the scale of devastation, there has been little public reckoning over climate breakdown or the erosion of essential public services. Instead, conspiracy theories have abounded.
To understand how this catastrophe unfolded and the political response to it, I spoke to Oliver Milman, the Guardian US environment reporter. That's after the headlines.
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The devastating floods began in the early hours of 4 July, Independence Day in the US. Oliver Milman told me that what started out as a seemingly small storm stalled in an area where two rivers in central Texas meet, and dumped an enormous amount of rain.
'It caused the river to burst its banks, swept away homes, cars, flooded rivers and, most tragically, caught up on Camp Mystic,' Oliver said. 'There's still hope that some people could be rescued, but it's certainly going to be one of the biggest, deadliest natural disasters in recent US history.'
Oliver said there are several factors that could explain why this flood was so devastating. We also get into the responses from elected officials and other players.
How much of this is down to the climate crisis?
As the planet gets hotter, mostly because of humans burning fossil fuels, the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture. One meteorologist told Oliver that the Earth's atmosphere is now like a giant sponge.
'You've got more moisture in the atmosphere, and more energy because it's getting hotter, and therefore you're getting more of these extreme precipitation events happening in several places around the world, including parts of the eastern US. But the western half of the US seems to be getting more drought,' Oliver said. 'So, very crudely speaking, half the country's not getting enough rain, and the other half is getting too much in these intense downpours.'
He pointed to some interesting statistics from the Environment Protection Agency: of the 10 heaviest precipitation single-day events in US history going back to 1910, nine have happened since 1995. 'We're clearly getting more and more of these events. There's been research done showing they're becoming more common in Texas and will continue to as the world heats up,' Oliver added.
The geography of central Texas also made the floods more catastrophic. 'It's hilly and has these canyons, lots of rivers, and not much topsoil. So when rain hits, it flies off the ground very quickly. It's known as 'Flash Flood Alley' in some places, so that was a factor. The rain hit, and the devastation followed.'
What impact have Donald Trump's cuts had?
The other factor, which Oliver likened to a toxic cocktail, is the political situation in the US.
'The Trump administration has essentially tried to gut the federal workforce: firing scientists, firing weather forecasters, trying to eliminate large sections of the scientific agencies that deal with climate change. So you had a situation where a lot of National Weather Service offices, which track storms and issue warnings, were critically understaffed,' Oliver explained.
Democrats have called for an investigation into whether the sweeping cuts introduced by the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), once led by Elon Musk, played any role in the disaster. The Trump administration has dismissed any suggestion that its policies had an impact.
'The Trump administration has pushed back quite hard and said this was an act of God, there were adequate resources, and so on,' Oliver said. Yet, understaffing was an issue and there was a disconnect between the meteorologists issuing warnings and the emergency services, he said.
'The National Weather Service issued a warning about dangerous flood conditions at 1.14am [on 4 July], but there wasn't – and it's still unclear why – coordination with emergency services to evacuate people, to mobilise resources in enough time. A lot of people are pointing fingers at the cuts Trump has made to the coordination services usually handled by the federal government.'
And it's not just Trump that people are focusing on. The week before the floods, Texas senator Ted Cruz, ensured that the 'big, beautiful bill', a Republican spending bill pushed through and signed by Trump on Independence Day, would include particular cuts.
'It does a lot of things: cuts the social safety net, people lose health care, gives tax breaks to the wealthy, removes food assistance, guts support for clean energy,' Oliver said. 'But one thing it also did was remove a $150m fund to improve weather forecasting at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Cruz personally inserted the language to cut that and then, tragically, just days later this storm hit his home state and killed many people. So there are a lot of questions being asked about his role and whether those cuts played a significant role.'
Republicans have largely fallen into line on the Texas floods, lavishing praise on Trump, while avoiding questions around the effect of Doge.
Has this moved the dial on the climate emergency?
In Texas, the reaction on the ground has been one of disbelief and devastation, Oliver said. 'There's a lot of 'thoughts and prayers' rhetoric in Texas right now, a sense of rallying to help those in need. People are mainly stunned rather than immediately pointing fingers, although local officials are raising questions about how much warning they got from the National Weather Service. There are also concerns about the local government's actions. There had been a plan to install an early-warning flood system along the river, but the idea was ditched because it was considered too expensive. So you've got this local angle, too.'
Far-right players have descended on central Texas in a stunt they claim is part of a 'disaster relief' effort. In a video posted by one group, they say their so-called 'activists' are distributing supplies to survivors, but make clear that they are prioritising 'their people' and 'European peoples' in those operations.
As is now common when disaster strikes, conspiracy theories are being spread, Oliver said, by rightwing influencers and elected representatives such as Marjorie Taylor Greene. 'They have questioned the cause [of the flood], whether it's weather modification, cloud seeding, some nefarious machine. There's this irony: we are modifying the weather – it's called climate change. But it's not the kind of weather modification they're talking about.'
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Oliver isn't surprised by this reaction. 'People are now able to live in their own realities, sealed off from facts,' he said. 'Whatever people believed before the storm, the storm just reinforced it. That's become a recurring theme, not just in disasters but in politics more broadly. People are very entrenched here. I know that's also an issue in the UK and Europe, but in the US things feel paralysed. I don't know if this will move anyone's opinion.'
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