Iran poses ‘persistent and sophisticated' threat to UK, warns British watchdog
'Whilst Iran's activity appears to be less strategic and on a smaller scale than Russia and China, Iran poses a wide-ranging, persistent and sophisticated threat to UK national security, which should not be underestimated,' the UK watchdog said in a report.
According the the report by the watchdog, the number of intelligence officers in the IIS – in the tens of thousands – is also significantly smaller than the Russian and Chinese equivalents, which are in the low hundreds of thousands. Nevertheless, Iran still poses a significant and broad threat to the UK.
The report added that Iran's main strategic objectives towards the UK include reducing the UK's military presence in the region, undermining the UK's relationships with the US and Israel, weakening the UK's security relationships in the Middle East, and silencing criticism of Iran, either from the UK directly or from those residing in the UK.
Citing instances of 15 attempted murders or kidnappings of British nationals or UK residents by Iran, the committee said the physical threat posed by the country is 'comparable with the threat posed by Russia'.
The threat posed by Iran is also linked to the state of the bilateral relationship between Iran and the UK. This relationship could change depending on the UK's international engagement as much as UK-specific actions or policy.
The Intelligence Community also noted that Iran's approach towards the UK is closely linked to its approach to the US – unsurprising given the close alignment between the UK and the US.
What does the report say about the Iran-UK relationship that existed in history?
Iran and the UK have a complex history. Iran's leadership perceives the UK to be a significant adversary – a 'cunning fox' – opposed to the Iranian regime's values and, as part of the West, to be seeking regime change in Iran.
It therefore believes that the UK poses a military and intelligence threat in the Middle East – although witnesses suggested that the UK would sit behind the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia in any priority list.
'Slightly chaotic' nature of threat
Intelligence and Security Committee chairman Kevan Jones, reportedly warned that Iran has 'a high appetite for risk when conducting offensive activity' on foreign soil.
According to a report by The Independent, 'Its intelligence services are ferociously well resourced with significant areas of asymmetric strength,' Jones said.
According to yesterday's report, Iran's activity certainly appears less strategic than that of China and Russia.
'I would describe the nature of the threat as slightly chaotic. It is not as strategic as we have seen from the Chinese and the Russians. There seem to be waves of activities … rather than a kind of consistent plan,' the Home Secretary told the Intelligence and Security Committee.
'Iran does not have the scale or some of the strategic aims that in particular that the China does. China and Russia are substantially more strategic, in terms of the breadth of what they are interested in doing inside the United Kingdom,' the report added.
Which Iranian-aligned militant and terrorist groups pose the biggest threat to the UK?
The reported named multiple militant and terrorist groups in the Middle East which have a relationship with, and receive support from, Iran, like Kata'ib Hizbollah in Iraq and Al-Qaeda. Both the organizations have demonstrated both the capability and intent to threaten UK interests.
Other notable groups, such as Lebanese Hizbollah, do not appear to have the intent – given their regional focus and publicly stated objectives – but retain the capability to target UK interests, said the report.
Scope of the report
The committee concluded its evidence-taking in August 2023, the result of two years of work, but the report authors say their conclusions 'remain relevant', reported Sky News.
The report authors questioned whether UK sanctions against individuals would 'in practice deliver behavioural change. Or in fact unhelpfully push Iran towards China,' the report added.
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