Stocks struggle, oil up for 3rd week as Trump weighs US action on Iran
Share markets in Asia struggled for direction on Friday as fears of a potential U.S. attack on Iran hung over markets, while oil prices were poised to rise for a third straight week on the escalating Israel-Iran conflict.
ADVERTISEMENT Overnight, Israel bombed nuclear targets in Iran, and Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel as a week-old air war intensified with no sign yet of an exit strategy from either side.
The White House said President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran war. The U.S. President is facing uproar from some of his MAGA base over a possible strike on Iran.
Brent fell 2% on Friday to $77.22 per barrel, but is still headed for a strong weekly gain of 4%, following a 12% surge the previous week. "The 'two-week deadline' is a tactic Trump has used in other key decisions, including those involving Russia and Ukraine, and tariffs," said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG. "Often, these deadlines expire without concrete action, (similar to TACO), and there is certainly a risk of this happening again, given the complexities of the situation."
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Still, a cautious mood prevailed in markets with Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures both 0.3% lower in Asia. U.S. markets were closed for the Juneteenth holiday, offering little direction for Asia.
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.1% but was set for a weekly drop of 1%. Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.2%.
ADVERTISEMENT China's blue chips rose 0.3%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 0.5%, after the central bank held the benchmark lending rates steady as widely expected.
In the currency markets, the dollar was on the back foot again, slipping 0.2% to 145.17 yen after data showed Japan's core inflation hit a two-year high in May, which kept pressure on the Bank of Japan to resume interest rate hikes.
ADVERTISEMENT Investors, however, see little prospects of a rate hike from the BOJ until December this year, which is a little over 50% priced in. The U.S. bond market, which was also closed on Thursday, started trading in Asian hours on a subdued note. Ten-year Treasury bond yield was flat at 4.389%, while two-year yields slipped 2 basis points to 3.925%.
ADVERTISEMENT Overnight, the Swiss National Bank cut rates to zero and did not rule out going negative, while the Bank of England held policy steady but saw the need for further easing and Norway's central bank surprised everyone and cut rates for the first time since 2020.
Gold prices eased 0.2% to $3,363 an ounce, but were set for a weekly loss of 2%.
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Hindustan Times
32 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Monthly social security checks could be cut by this year if Congress doesn't act
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Time of India
38 minutes ago
- Time of India
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Dual use, making warfighting possible The additional 1.5 percent spending basket is murkier. Rutte and many members argue that infrastructure used to deploy armies to the front must be included, as well as building up defence industries and preparing citizens for possible attacks. "If a tank is not able to cross a bridge. If our societies are not prepared in case war breaks out for a whole of society approach. If we are not able to really develop the defence industrial base, then the 3.5 percent is great but you cannot really defend yourselves," Rutte said this month. Spain wanted climate change spending included, but that proposal was rejected. Cyber-security and counter-hybrid warfare investment should also make the cut. Yet with all the conjecture about what might be included, it's difficult to see how Rutte arrived at this 1.5 percent figure. The when, the how, and a cunning plan It's not enough to agree to spend more money. 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Time of India
38 minutes ago
- Time of India
The success of a key NATO summit is in doubt after Spain rejects a big hike in defense spending
The success of a key NATO summit hung in the balance on Friday, after Spain announced that it cannot raise the billions of dollars needed to meet a new defense investment pledge demanded by U.S. President Donald Trump . Trump and his NATO counterparts are meeting for two days in the Netherlands from next Tuesday. He insists that U.S. allies should commit to spending at least 5% of gross domestic product, but that requires investment at an unprecedented scale. Trump has cast doubt over whether the U.S. would defend allies that spend too little. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Victoria Principal Is Almost 75, See Her Now Reportingly Undo Setting the spending goal would be a historic decision. It would see all 32 countries invest the same amount in defense for the first time. Only last week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expressed confidence that they would endorse it. But in a letter to Rutte on Thursday, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez wrote that "committing to a 5% target would not only be unreasonable, but also counterproductive." Live Events "It would move Spain away from optimal spending and it would hinder the (European Union's) ongoing efforts to strengthen its security and defense ecosystem," Sanchez wrote in the letter, seen by The Associated Press. Spain is not entirely alone Belgium, Canada, France and Italy would also struggle to hike security spending by billions of dollars, but Spain is the only country to officially announce its intentions, making it hard to row back from such a public decision. Beyond his economic challenges, Sanchez has other problems. He relies on small parties to govern, and corruption scandals have ensnared his inner circle and family members. He's under growing pressure to call an early election. In response to the letter, Rutte's office said only that "discussions among allies on a new defense investment plan are ongoing." NATO's top civilian official had been due to table a new proposal on Friday to try to break the deadlock. The U.S. and French envoys had also been due to update reporters about the latest developments ahead of the summit but postponed their briefings. Rutte and many European allies are desperate to resolve the problem by Tuesday so that Trump does not derail the summit, as he did during his first term at NATO headquarters in 2018. Budget boosting After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO allies agreed that 2% of GDP should be the minimum they spend on their military budgets. But NATO's new plans for defending its own territory against outside attack require investment of at least 3%. Spain agreed to those plans in 2023. The 5% goal is made up of two parts. The allies would agree to hike pure defense spending to 3.5% of GDP. A further 1.5% would go to upgrade roads, bridges, ports and airfields so that armies can better deploy, and to prepare societies for future attacks. Mathematically, 3.5 plus 1.5 equals Trump's 5%. But a lot is hiding behind the figures and details of what kinds of things can be included remain cloudy. Countries closest to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine have all agreed to the target, as well as nearby Germany, Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands, which is hosting the June 24-25 summit. The Netherlands estimates that NATO's defense plans would force it to dedicate at least 3.5% to core defense spending. That means finding an additional 16 billion to 19 billion euros ($18 billion to $22 billion). Supplying arms and ammunition to Ukraine, which Spain does, will also be included as core defense spending. NATO estimates that the U.S. spent around 3.2% of GDP on defense last year. Dual use, making warfighting possible The additional 1.5% spending basket is murkier. Rutte and many members argue that infrastructure used to deploy armies to the front must be included, as well as building up defense industries and preparing citizens for possible attacks. "If a tank is not able to cross a bridge. If our societies are not prepared in case war breaks out for a whole of society approach. If we are not able to really develop the defense industrial base, then the 3.5% is great but you cannot really defend yourselves," Rutte said this month. Spain wanted climate change spending included, but that proposal was rejected. Cyber-security and counter-hybrid warfare investment should also make the cut. Yet with all the conjecture about what might be included, it's difficult to see how Rutte arrived at this 1.5% figure. The when, the how, and a cunning plan It's not enough to agree to spend more money. Many allies haven't yet hit the 2% target, although most will this year, and they had a decade to get there. So an incentive is required. The date of 2032 has been floated as a deadline. That's far shorter than previous NATO targets, but military planners estimate that Russian forces could be capable of launching an attack on an ally within 5-10 years. The U.S. insists that it cannot be an open-ended pledge, and that a decade is too long. Still, Italy says it wants 10 years to hit the 5% target. Another issue is how fast spending should be ramped up. "I have a cunning plan for that," Rutte said. He wants the allies to submit annual plans that lay out how much they intend to increase spending by. The reasons for the spending hike For Europe, Russia's war on Ukraine poses an existential threat. A major rise in sabotage, cyberattacks and GPS jamming incidents is blamed on Moscow. European leaders are girding their citizens for the possibility of more. The United States also insists that China poses a threat. But for European people to back a hike in national defense spending, their governments require acknowledgement that the Kremlin remains NATO's biggest security challenge. The billions required for security will be raised by taxes, going into debt, or shuffling money from other budgets. But it won't be easy for many, as Spain has shown. On top of that, Trump has made things economically tougher by launching a global tariff war - ostensibly for U.S. national security reasons - something America's allies find hard to fathom.