Trump's 50% tariff threatens India's manufacturing ambitions
For Farida, which supplies brands such as Cole Haan and Clarks and depends on the US for about 60 per cent of its business, the impact was immediate. New orders stopped. The 10 billion rupee (S$146 million) project froze.
'With 25 per cent tariffs, you can still work, you can give some discount, negotiate with the buyer and make some adjustments in your profits,' Rafeeque Ahmed, the company's chairman, said. 'At 50 per cent, you don't have anything.'
Farida is hardly alone. Trump's move would give India the highest tariff rate in Asia, threatening a manufacturing sector that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spent a decade trying to build to take on the likes of China.
The 'Make in India' campaign was supposed to lift manufacturing to 25 per cent of the economy. Last year, it stood at just 13 per cent – lower than the 16 per cent in 2015, according to World Bank data.
The last few years did offer glimmers of the future Modi had envisioned. Apple scaled up iPhone assembly in India, making the country the second-largest smartphone producer after China. Pharmaceuticals and green tech have also gained ground. The US, whose policies and actions accelerated companies' adoption of a 'China Plus One' strategy to diversify supply chains, is now India's biggest export market and one of its top sources of foreign investment.
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That progress is suddenly vulnerable. While the tariff hike spares smartphones and pharmaceuticals for now, it puts the rest of India's US$87 billion in US-bound exports on the line.
'Forget China Plus One right now. Companies are thinking India Plus One,' Ahmed said. 'They are making plans to move out of India.'
India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Trump says the tariff hike is punishment for India's purchase of discounted oil from Russia, which he argues helps fund President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine. But India was the only major economy to be hit with such 'secondary tariffs', even though China is the largest overall buyer of Moscow's crude.
If the 50 per cent rate holds, Bloomberg Economics estimates US-bound exports from India could fall by 60 per cent and put nearly 1 per cent of gross domestic product at risk. Without exemptions for pharmaceuticals and electronics, the decline could reach 80 per cent. Even the earlier 25 per cent rate – already higher than in Vietnam, Malaysia or Bangladesh – was enough to threaten a 30 per cent drop in exports. For comparison, Chinese goods face about a 30 per cent US tariff.
'In addition to the economic challenge, politically it's difficult for Prime Minister Modi that India now pays a higher blanket rate than China,' said Alexander Slater, head of the India practice at consulting firm Capstone.
China is pressing on other fronts as well. Beijing wants to limit tech transfers and equipment exports to India and South-east Asia, aiming to deter companies from relocating production, Bloomberg previously reported. China's rare earth curbs also hit Indian automakers earlier this year.
At the same time, Trump's tariffs have opened the door for closer India-China ties. Direct flights may resume as soon as next month, and Beijing has eased restrictions on urea exports to India.
On the factory floor, anxiety over the US tariff is palpable. Ajay Sahai, chief executive officer of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, said that exporters could see demand fall 20 per cent in the short term. The timing could not be worse: summer 2026 orders are being placed right now, but with tariffs sitting at 50 per cent, buyers are baulking.
'I have been getting 80 to 90 calls every day concerning these issues from exporters seeking solutions and ways out,' he said. 'It's difficult to do business in such a tariff environment.'
Some factories are slashing prices to hold on to customers. The only way to retain buyers is by giving huge discounts, said Sudhir Sekhri, managing director at apparel maker Trend Setters Group. Spring and summer orders account for roughly 65 per cent of his firm's revenue.
In Mumbai, Sharad Kumar Saraf, managing director of Technocraft Group, which produces scaffolding, textiles and other goods, is running the numbers to reduce costs for buyers. About a third of its sales are headed for the US. 'Additional tariffs is unwarranted and uncalled for and will impact our trade severely,' he said.
There's still the possibility for a reprieve. US and Indian officials are continuing trade talks, with the hopes of landing the first tranche of a bilateral trade deal this fall that could dial back tariffs. Trump will also meet Putin in Alaska this week to discuss Ukraine, any breakthrough there could strengthen the case for dropping America's oil-related levies.
But time is not on India's side. The longer the uncertainty drags on, the more companies will start looking elsewhere. India's share in many of these product categories is small and US brands can shift their supply chains quickly if they decide to, said P Senthilkumar, partner at Vector Consulting Group.
The tariff threat feels personal for Farida Group, whose shoe plants employ about 23,000 people, with over half producing for the US. Every paused shipment or cancelled order brings painful choices, whether to halt or slow production, or let go of staff who have spent years honing their craft.
'You can't take business decisions in such uncertainty,' said Ahmed. 'What will happen to workers? Shall I send them back? They have been with me for years, they are skilled workers, I can't just send them back.'
'Workers would be one of the biggest sufferers,' he added. BLOOMBERG
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