After surge during pandemic, homicides fall significantly

Boston Globe

24-07-2025

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The findings of the council's study through the first six months of this year largely align with other private sources of data that offer clues to national trends about crime. The FBI has typically provided official nationwide crime data once a year. It last released nationwide statistics in September.
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Overall, the council found that homicide rates fell 17 percent in the first half of the year in 30 cities it tracked in that category. But some of the largest cities, ones with historically high murder rates, posted much larger drops, according to the study. Chicago's rate is down 33 percent compared with the first six months of last year, St. Louis has fallen 22 percent in the same period, and Baltimore is down 24 percent.
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Denver, which in 2021 recorded its highest number of homicides since 1981, had the sharpest decline in its homicide rate among the cities in the sample, down 45 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the study.
Boston, which did not submit figures on homicides for this report, has also experienced a decline in murders.
The Real-Time Crime Index, published by Jeff Asher, a New Orleans-based crime analyst, tracks a much larger number of cities than the council does. That index, which follows more than 400 police agencies, shows that murders are down 20 percent through May, compared with the same period in 2024.
Other violent crimes, such as robbery and aggravated assault, are also down significantly. In contrast to the council's findings, Asher's figures, based on his larger sample of cities, show that aggravated assaults are still higher than just before the pandemic.
Gun violence overall has also declined. According to an analysis by Asher based on data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, there are 16.4 percent fewer shooting victims nationally this year through June as compared with the same period last year.
In addition, the Major Cities Chiefs Association, an organization of police executives from 69 of the largest cities in the nation, reported double-digit declines in four violent crime categories in most of the cities they represent in the first three months of this year as compared with last year. Homicides and robbery were each down 20 percent, while rape fell 14 percent, and aggravated assault was down 11 percent.
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After surging in 2020 and 2021, homicides started to decline in 2022. But in 2023 they fell at what was then the fastest rate in recorded history, and they have been falling even faster ever since.
Even shoplifting, which increased last year as cities struggled to deal with retail theft, has fallen by double digits so far this year, according to the council's analysis, which relied on data from 25 cities on that topic. Shoplifting had become a topic of political debates, especially in California, where voters who were frustrated with seeing so many items in stores locked away approved a ballot measure to roll back a major criminal justice reform law and impose tougher penalties for stealing.
Criminologists say it's too early to provide definitive explanations for the whipsaw-like shifts in crime of recent years. Adding to the puzzle, say analysts, is that crime has fallen so sharply despite a surge in gun buying during the pandemic, and despite decreases in staffing levels at police agencies.
'Probably in the most simple form, it's simply that the shock waves of the pandemic that contributed to the spike have largely dissipated,' said Adam Gelb, the CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice.
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