Latest news with #JeffAsher
Newsweek
5 days ago
- Newsweek
Map Shows Homicide Rates in Every State
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. The Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) announced in its latest crime statistics report that the number of murders in the United States in 2024 dropped nearly 15 percent from 2023. Newsweek hasreached out to the FBI for comment via email. Why It Matters The FBI released its annual "Crimes in the Nation" statistics on Tuesday. The report, comprised data covering 95.1 percent of all Americans, is a key metric measuring crime trends across the United States. It found that violent crime has decreased since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic fueled a rise in crime nationwide. What To Know There were an estimated 16,935 murders in the United States in 2020, down 14.9 percent from 2023 and 23 percent from 2020, according to the FBI. However, it does mark a 6.8 increase from 2015, according to the report. It found that a murder occurred in the United States once every 31.1 minutes, and a rape occurred once every 4.1 minutes in 2024. National violent crime as a whole fell 4.5 percent in 2024 compared to 2023. This map shows homicide rates per state: While it accounts for more than 95 percent of the U.S. population, not all agencies report their data to the FBI, so it is incomplete. Notably, the data for the New York Police Department (NYPD), which is in charge of law enforcement for the nation's largest city, was not included in the report. Washington, D.C. had the highest homicide rate at around 26 homicides per 100,000 people. New Mexico followed at about 10.2 homicides per 100,000 people. New Hampshire ranked the lowest at only one homicide per 100,000 people, according to the FBI's data. The report also found that property crime fell by about 8.1 percent, while hate crimes fell by about 1.5 percent. There were still a total of 11,679 hate crimes reported to the FBI last year. What People Are Saying The FBI report reads: "An estimated 1,221,345 violent crime offenses were committed in 2024, indicating a rate of 359.1 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants, down from the 2023 estimated offense rate of 379.5 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants. An estimated 419,423 arrests for violent crime offenses were made in 2024." A police car sits on Main Street in Dallas on July 7, 2016. A police car sits on Main Street in Dallas on July 7, 2016. LAURA BUCKMAN/AFP via Getty Images Jeff Asher, a data analyst and consultant, wrote on Substack: "The bottom line is that reported crime fell in 2024 led by massive drops in both murder and motor vehicle theft. With last year's initial estimates firmly in hand, attention can now shift to how these downward trends are accelerating as we approach the end of summer 2025." What Happens Next Whether the trend of declining crime continues over the coming years is yet to be seen. The FBI and other law enforcement agencies will continue to track these crimes to identity trends and potential ways to deter criminal activity.
Boston Globe
24-07-2025
- Boston Globe
After surge during pandemic, homicides fall significantly
Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up The findings of the council's study through the first six months of this year largely align with other private sources of data that offer clues to national trends about crime. The FBI has typically provided official nationwide crime data once a year. It last released nationwide statistics in September. Advertisement Overall, the council found that homicide rates fell 17 percent in the first half of the year in 30 cities it tracked in that category. But some of the largest cities, ones with historically high murder rates, posted much larger drops, according to the study. Chicago's rate is down 33 percent compared with the first six months of last year, St. Louis has fallen 22 percent in the same period, and Baltimore is down 24 percent. Advertisement Denver, which in 2021 recorded its highest number of homicides since 1981, had the sharpest decline in its homicide rate among the cities in the sample, down 45 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the study. Boston, which did not submit figures on homicides for this report, has also experienced a decline in murders. The Real-Time Crime Index, published by Jeff Asher, a New Orleans-based crime analyst, tracks a much larger number of cities than the council does. That index, which follows more than 400 police agencies, shows that murders are down 20 percent through May, compared with the same period in 2024. Other violent crimes, such as robbery and aggravated assault, are also down significantly. In contrast to the council's findings, Asher's figures, based on his larger sample of cities, show that aggravated assaults are still higher than just before the pandemic. Gun violence overall has also declined. According to an analysis by Asher based on data compiled by the Gun Violence Archive, there are 16.4 percent fewer shooting victims nationally this year through June as compared with the same period last year. In addition, the Major Cities Chiefs Association, an organization of police executives from 69 of the largest cities in the nation, reported double-digit declines in four violent crime categories in most of the cities they represent in the first three months of this year as compared with last year. Homicides and robbery were each down 20 percent, while rape fell 14 percent, and aggravated assault was down 11 percent. Advertisement After surging in 2020 and 2021, homicides started to decline in 2022. But in 2023 they fell at what was then the fastest rate in recorded history, and they have been falling even faster ever since. Even shoplifting, which increased last year as cities struggled to deal with retail theft, has fallen by double digits so far this year, according to the council's analysis, which relied on data from 25 cities on that topic. Shoplifting had become a topic of political debates, especially in California, where voters who were frustrated with seeing so many items in stores locked away approved a ballot measure to roll back a major criminal justice reform law and impose tougher penalties for stealing. Criminologists say it's too early to provide definitive explanations for the whipsaw-like shifts in crime of recent years. Adding to the puzzle, say analysts, is that crime has fallen so sharply despite a surge in gun buying during the pandemic, and despite decreases in staffing levels at police agencies. 'Probably in the most simple form, it's simply that the shock waves of the pandemic that contributed to the spike have largely dissipated,' said Adam Gelb, the CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice. This article originally appeared in
Miami Herald
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Are Murder Rates Plummeting Under Donald Trump? What We Know
Homicide rates in the United States have dropped by an average of 20 percent since 2024, with record-low numbers of murders being recorded across the country, according to a crime data analyst. Co-Founder of AH Datalytics, Jeff Asher, found that as of early May 2025, murders have fallen by 31.6 percent in Baltimore, 34.5 percent in St. Louis, 36.8 percent in Cleveland, 63 percent in Denver, 30.6 percent in New Orleans, 26.8 percent in New York, and 23.7 percent in Chicago. The White House is taking credit for this fall. However, this reduction in homicides is part of a larger trend. In June 2024, homicide rates were down nearly 20 percent from 2023, and in 2023, homicide rates dropped by 13 percent from 2022. Asher told Newsweek: "I think that it would be hard to give credit towards administration action, given that it really just a continuation of trends [and continuing on] momentum from things that were happening before." Homicide rates skyrocketed during the pandemic, and are now falling to lower than pre-pandemic levels, signaling a positive move away from the lingering impacts of COVID-19 on American society. In 2020, during President Donald Trump's first term, the U.S. saw the fastest spike in murders in recorded history, with cities seeing an average rise in homicides of 30 percent, per the Brookings Institution. More than 24,000 Americans died by homicide in the U.S. in 2020. These numbers remained high in 2021 and 2022. Data analysis by the Brookings Institution found that homicide spikes occurred alongside spikes in unemployment in low-income areas, pointing to how a significant rise in people out of work could lead to higher crime rates. Since then, homicide rates have been falling year on year. If rates continue to fall this year, then 2025 could see the lowest murder rate ever recorded in the U.S. As of mid-2025, the lowest recorded murder rate was in 2014. In a post to Bluesky, Asher said: "It's still not clear how much it'll hold up for the rest of the year, but the drop in murder so far in 2025 is remarkable." Asher told Newsweek that federal funding of community resources and construction can lead to a reduction in crime rates. In general, he is skeptical of the impact that any federal government can have on murder rates. He added that, given the newness of the Trump administration to office, it is difficult to determine what impact it may have had on current homicide rates. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the Daily Signal: "American families were promised their communities would be safer and President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law." Jeff Asher told Newsweek: "I think it's generally beyond the scope of any piece of legislation or any piece of federal action that tends to be a major driver [in homicide rates]." If homicide rates continue to fall, 2025 could see the lowest murder rate in recorded history. Related Articles Trump's Second-Term Agenda Faces Early Test In New Jersey PrimariesDonald Trump Speaks About Elon Musk's Drug UseLA's Only Elected Republican Reacts to National Guard Troops, ICE RaidsCalifornia Republican: Gavin Newsom Should 'Absolutely Not' Be Arrested 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
Newsweek
10-06-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Are Murder Rates Plummeting Under Donald Trump? What We Know
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Homicide rates in the United States have dropped by an average of 20 percent since 2024, with record-low numbers of murders being recorded across the country, according to a crime data analyst. Co-Founder of AH Datalytics, Jeff Asher, found that as of early May 2025, murders have fallen by 31.6 percent in Baltimore, 34.5 percent in St. Louis, 36.8 percent in Cleveland, 63 percent in Denver, 30.6 percent in New Orleans, 26.8 percent in New York, and 23.7 percent in Chicago. The White House is taking credit for this fall. However, this reduction in homicides is part of a larger trend. In June 2024, homicide rates were down nearly 20 percent from 2023, and in 2023, homicide rates dropped by 13 percent from 2022. Asher told Newsweek: "I think that it would be hard to give credit towards administration action, given that it really just a continuation of trends [and continuing on] momentum from things that were happening before." It's still not clear how much it'll hold up for the rest of the year, but the drop in murder so far in 2025 is remarkable. Murder is down in 25 of the 30 cities that reported the most murders nationally in 2023. [image or embed] — Jeff Asher (@ May 6, 2025 at 2:48 AM Why It Matters Homicide rates skyrocketed during the pandemic, and are now falling to lower than pre-pandemic levels, signaling a positive move away from the lingering impacts of COVID-19 on American society. What To Know In 2020, during President Donald Trump's first term, the U.S. saw the fastest spike in murders in recorded history, with cities seeing an average rise in homicides of 30 percent, per the Brookings Institution. More than 24,000 Americans died by homicide in the U.S. in 2020. These numbers remained high in 2021 and 2022. Data analysis by the Brookings Institution found that homicide spikes occurred alongside spikes in unemployment in low-income areas, pointing to how a significant rise in people out of work could lead to higher crime rates. Since then, homicide rates have been falling year on year. If rates continue to fall this year, then 2025 could see the lowest murder rate ever recorded in the U.S. As of mid-2025, the lowest recorded murder rate was in 2014. In a post to Bluesky, Asher said: "It's still not clear how much it'll hold up for the rest of the year, but the drop in murder so far in 2025 is remarkable." Asher told Newsweek that federal funding of community resources and construction can lead to a reduction in crime rates. In general, he is skeptical of the impact that any federal government can have on murder rates. He added that, given the newness of the Trump administration to office, it is difficult to determine what impact it may have had on current homicide rates. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Canva What People Are Saying White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the Daily Signal: "American families were promised their communities would be safer and President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law." Jeff Asher told Newsweek: "I think it's generally beyond the scope of any piece of legislation or any piece of federal action that tends to be a major driver [in homicide rates]." What Happens Next If homicide rates continue to fall, 2025 could see the lowest murder rate in recorded history.
Vox
24-05-2025
- Politics
- Vox
Something remarkable is happening with violent crime rates in the US
is an editorial director at Vox overseeing the climate, tech, and world teams, and is the editor of Vox's Future Perfect section. He worked at Time magazine for 15 years as a foreign correspondent in Asia, a climate writer, and an international editor, and he wrote a book on existential risk. The astounding drop in violent crime that began in the 1990s and extended through the mid-2010s is one of the most important — and most underappreciated — good news stories of recent memory. That made its reversal during the pandemic so worrying. In the first full year of the pandemic, the FBI tallied 22,134 murders nationwide, up from 16,669 in 2019 — an increase of roughly 34 percent, the sharpest one-year rise in modern crime record-keeping. In 2021, Philadelphia alone recorded a record 562 homicides, while Baltimore experienced a near-record 337 murders. Between 2019 and 2020, the average number of weekly emergency department visits for gunshots increased by 37 percent, and largely stayed high through the following year. By the 2024 election, for the first time in awhile, violent crime was a major political issue in the US. A Pew survey that year found that 58 percent of Americans believed crime should be a top priority for the president and Congress, up from 47 percent in 2021. And yet even as the presidential campaign was unfolding, the violent crime spike of the pandemic had already subsided — and crime rates have kept dropping. The FBI's 2023 crime report found that murder was down nearly 12 percent year over year, and in 2024 it kept falling to roughly 16,700 murders, on par with pre-pandemic levels. The early numbers for 2025 are so promising that Jeff Asher, one of the best independent analysts on crime, recently asked in a piece whether this year could have the lowest murder rate in US history. Related How US drug overdose deaths dropped by record numbers All of which raises two questions: What's driving a decrease in crime every bit as sharp as the pandemic-era increase? And why do so many of us find it so hard to believe? The crime wave crashes We shouldn't jump to conclusions about this year's crime rates based on the early data, especially since we're just now beginning the summer, when violent crime almost always rises. Crime data in the US is also patchy and slow — I can tell you how many soybeans the US raised in March, but I can't tell you how many people have been murdered in the US this year. Related The Supreme Court just got an important police violence case right But what we can tell looks very good. The Real-Time Crime Index, an academic project that collects crime data from more than 380 police agencies covering nearly 100 million people, estimates there were 1,488 murders in the US this year through March, compared to an estimated 1,899 over the same months last year. That's a decrease of nearly 22 percent. Violent crime overall is down by about 11 percent. Motor vehicle theft, which became an epidemic during the pandemic, is down by over 26 percent. Peer down to the local level, and the picture just keeps getting better. In Baltimore, which The Wire made synonymous with violent, drug-related crime, homicides fell to 199 last year, its best showing in over a decade. As of early May, the city had 45 murders, down another third from the same period last year. City emergency rooms that were once full of gunshot victims have gone quiet. How much lower could it go nationally? The record low homicide rate, at least since national records started being kept in 1960, is 4.45 per 100,000 in 2014. So far this year, according to Asher, murder is down in 25 of the 30 cities that reported the most murders in 2023. Asher argues that if the numbers hold, 'a 10 percent or more decline in murder nationally in 2025 would roughly tie 2014 for the lowest murder rate ever recorded.' What's behind the drop? In short: The pandemic led to a huge increase in violent crime, and as the pandemic waned, so did the wave. The closure of schools during the pandemic, especially in already higher-crime cities in the Northeast, meant far more young men — who are statistically more likely to be either perpetrators of violent crime or victims of it — on the streets. The closure of social services left fewer resources for them to draw on; and the sheer stress of a once-in-a-lifetime health catastrophe set everyone on edge. The murder of George Floyd in spring 2020 led to a collapse in community trust in policing, which in turn seemed to lead to less aggressive policing altogether. As the pandemic eased, though, those buffers came back, providing a natural brake on violent crime. But the government, from the national level down to cities, also took direct actions to stem the flood of violence. The White House under President Joe Biden poured hundreds of millions of dollars into community violence interruption programs, which aim to break the cycle of retribution that can lead to homicide. Baltimore's Group Violence Reduction Strategy has brought together community groups and law enforcement to deter the people considered most likely to get involved in gun violence. And the erosion in police forces nationwide that occurred during the pandemic has largely stopped. The situation is far from perfect. Even though Floyd's murder triggered a nationwide reckoning around police violence, recent data shows that police killings kept increasing, in part because fear of crime often stopped momentum around reforms. Here in New York, even as overall crime on the subways has fallen to historical lows, felony assaults on the trains have kept rising, fueling fears of lawlessness. Why can't we believe it? As Memorial Day weekend marks the start of summer, the next few months will tell whether the pandemic was truly just a blip in the long-term reduction in violent crime. But what we can say is most people don't seem to notice the positive trends. An October 2024 poll by Gallup found that 64 percent of Americans believed there was more crime nationwide than the year before, even though by that time in 2024, the post-pandemic crime drop was well under way. But such results aren't surprising. One of the most reliable results in polling is that if you ask Americans whether crime is rising, they'll say yes. Astonishingly, in 23 of 27 national surveys done by Gallup since 1993, Americans reported that they thought crime nationwide was rising — even though most of those surveys were done during the long crime decline. Crime is one of the best examples we have of bad news bias. By definition, a murder is an outlier event that grabs our attention, inevitably leading the nightly local news. Sometimes, as during the pandemic, that bias can match reality. But if we fail to adjust to what is actually happening around us — not just what we think is happening — it won't just make us think our cities are more dangerous than they really are. It'll sap energy for the reforms that can really make a difference. A version of this story originally appeared in the Good News newsletter. Sign up here!
