In the D.C. region, the future of the Metro is the bus

Washington Post

06-05-2025

The D.C. public transportation system is set to expand dramatically over the next 20 years. But aside from the long-delayed Purple Line, new train tracks aren't part of the plan. Leaders in and around the Metro system are putting their energy behind the less-loved side of transit: the bus.
In June, Metro rolls out its new 'Better Bus Network,' remaking the existing system with fewer stops and promises of faster service. Northern Virginia leaders just proposed 28 new bus routes, five of which are already in the works. The District has 7 bus-only lanes and wants a dozen more; Montgomery and Prince George's counties in Maryland are planning 17. Today, the region has about 30 miles of lanes reserved for buses. Plans call for 20 times more over the next two decades.
There are a couple reasons for the shift. One is money. New rail is remarkably expensive and difficult to build — the Purple Line is five years and $5 billion dollars over its original budget — and the Trump administration is expected to cut funds for transit projects. The other is the lasting impact of the pandemic. Metro ridership is rebounding as more people reported to offices, but it's still about a third lower than in 2019. Bus ridership, on the other hand, is actually higher — even though Metro data shows buses are slower, less frequent and less reliable than rail.
So Metro is focusing on making the existing rail and bus infrastructure more efficient to both accommodate the region's expected population growth and address its already arduous levels of traffic congestion.
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'We need to move much, much faster on a regional, coordinated bus priority plan,' Metro planning chief Tom Webster said at a public meeting late last month. 'It is this region's future.'
Already, nearly as many people ride Metro buses every day as Metro trains. But these plans aim to double that ridership, bringing in people who have the option to drive. The goal is to 'compete with a single-occupancy vehicle, regarding the reliability and the frequency of service,' said Monica Blackmon, CEO of the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority.
Saying no to 'the bloop'
In proposing the pivot to buses, Metro leaders put to bed a rail expansion known colloquially as 'the bloop.' The idea, which came out of a years-long study of how to speed up trains between Rosslyn and downtown D.C., would have redirected the Blue Line through Southeast Washington to link up with the Yellow Line in Alexandria. It would've added a stop by the hotels and casino at National Harbor and provided Metro access to St. Elizabeth's, Buzzard Point and Bolling Air Force Base.
But it came with an estimated $30 billion to $35 billion price tag and a 20-year timeline to complete. The entire bus network redesign was done in three years with no extra funding. Even the most ambitious local bus plans, which involve widening roads for bus lanes, cap out at around $1 billion.
'It makes sense for Metro to focus on the rail system it has, and give people something that will make their lives better right now — and that is what investing in the bus system does,' said Dan Reed, a former urban planner who works for the local pro-growth group Greater Greater Washington.
Still, there's a limit to what buses alone can solve as the region grows, some transportation experts and local officials say. A Beltway South bus line is envisioned, but replicating the 'bloop' would require several transfers.
'I don't understand why one of the richest metropolitan areas in one of the richest countries in the world can't have nice things like everybody else,' said Virginia State Sen. Scott Surovell (D-Fairfax), an advocate for the Blue Line loop. 'Bus is an important piece, but we cannot sacrifice rail investments just because it's hard.'
Transportation planners agree that at a certain distance or population density, buses are no longer effective. 'When the Purple Line opens and people can go from Bethesda to Silver Spring in nine minutes, you wont hear anyone say it should have been a bus,' Reed said.
Making buses work
Bus lanes have the potential to sidestep literal and figurative gridlock, skirting the kinds of costly battles that can derail bigger projects more reliant on federal dollars.
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When Montgomery proposed making temporary lanes on Georgia Avenue permanent late last year, public survey results showed two-thirds of 2,800 locals were opposed. Three-quarters of those people said they usually drove down the corridor, which has five bus lines and four Metro stops. The bus lanes serve roughly 10,000 riders a day, but only 658 of the survey respondents took the bus more than twice a month.
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If this were a plan that required federal funding, those opponents could have held it up for years with litigation or the threat of it. But the whole project cost was covered by the state for roughly $300,000, or $40,000 a mile. (For comparison, construction of the Purple Line has cost more than $300 million a mile.) The bus lanes stayed.
Marc Dunkelman, author of the book 'Why Nothing Works,' said the dynamics of projects like this reflect a broader problem in American governance.
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'We're spending hand over fist more than other countries in similar economic circumstances, and that's not purely about the cost of labor or the cost of materials. It's that … we've created an industry of vetoes that are available to anyone who objects,' Dunkelman said. 'Should we lower our aspirations knowing our process is screwed up or should we change the process so we can get more optimal solutions?'
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Interventions such as the Georgia Avenue lanes have improved bus speeds by as much as 60 percent, officials say, while reducing crashes by as much as 30 percent. And despite opposition from drivers, data indicates car traffic along bus priority routes has slowed by only a minute or two.
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'The folks driving vehicles didn't really experience a change,' D.C. City Administrator Kevin Donahue said at a regional transit meeting in March. 'They may not perceive that, because they're still in traffic before and after, but when we really study it the experience doesn't change at all.'
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Maryland and D.C. can now ticket cars in bus-only lanes. Also appearing on the streets are signals that let buses move ahead of other traffic, and curb bumps with fare boxes that make it easier and faster to get on and off. The most ambitious projects, called 'Bus Rapid Transit,' or BRT give buses their own separated corridors similar to light rail.
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'The operating costs aren't as high, the engineering isn't quite as intense, you can get through the process a little faster,' said transportation planner Julie Timm. She was a BRT skeptic herself until she was in charge of Richmond, Va.'s bus system, which now carries over a million riders a month. Now, she says, 'I'm a convert.'
'A bus is a bus'
The advantages buses hold over rail can also become drawbacks. Improvements are incremental and flexible, and therefor easier to scrap; new lines are easier to launch, and have resulted in a dozen local systems with separate names, fares and maps.
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There's agreement that jurisdictions should work together on signage and some bulk purchases. But fares, schedules and stops have proven more controversial. Already, discussions of the bus plans have created disputes about how much control Metro should have as opposed to the jurisdictions that oversee (and pay for) the roads buses travel.
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'There's a reason that we all have our local systems,' Alexandria City Council member Canek Aguirre said at a recent transit meeting in Northern Virginia. Alexandria's DASH service is free and electric, something Metrobus can't afford. 'You have a better understanding of not just your populace but the topography and your specific region,' he said in an interview afterward.
Loudoun Supervisor Matt Letourneau countered that localities should look to centralize as much as possible, given the political and financial climate for transit.
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'We have to drive value to the maximum extent possible,' he said. 'For [the public], they don't distinguish as much between the operators — a bus is a bus.'
That fight isn't over; it will likely continue over the summer as local leaders discuss Metro's financial future. How those play out will help determine whether a built-out bus network will be a success or a compromise that satisfies no one.