India's peacock parade: a march into regional instability
The national bird of India is the peacock, a majestic animal known for its dazzling display of feathers. It is a grandiose symbol of beauty and prestige. India's strategic arsenal seems to be following the same ideology of the peacock, putting on a dazzling display in order to solidify its place in the global pecking order. However, this form of showboating serves as a harrowing and dangerous precedent for the South Asian region. It reflects a country, prioritising prestige over its national security demands which can create a security dilemma for the region and the world at large.
India's initial drive towards nuclear weapons followed a path of minimum deterrence, with India even opting for a No-First Use (NFU) policy as soon as it conducted its nuclear tests in 1998. India has maintained that China and Pakistan are its key security concerns and for that reason, it has developed nuclear weapons. However, considering India's trajectory of strategic arsenal developments, it no longer seems the case. It appears that India has evolved its threat matrix to other global actors as well. At least, that is what these developments indicate.
India has joined multiple exclusive clubs in the recent years. It is now one of the few countries that possess Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons and hypersonic missiles as well. Through programmes such as Agni, India is also adding additional strategic capabilities to its arsenal such as the ability to have Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV)-based warheads, allowing India to gain an edge in terms of its nuclear weapons delivery and extend a threatening arm to other continents.
For a state that views its immediate neighborhood as threat, the development of such weapon systems does not make much strategic sense. India already has enough delivery vehicles and warheads to deter China and Pakistan. Given the geographical proximity of India's adversaries, such weapon systems pose no distinct military advantage. However, if India has global ambitions, then this makes perfect sense.
In addition, India is also in the possession of hypersonic nuclear-capable missiles such as the Shaurya with a range close to 2000km. Travelling at speeds greater than Mach 7 (seven times the speed of sound), these missiles will drastically cut down the flight time to target. Development of such platforms is an indication that India may be opting for a counterforce strategy rather than the longstanding countervalue targeting. By having delivery vehicles that can evade missile defences and land decisive blows to military targets, India may consider this as a viable strategy in case of a nuclear escalation.
Counterforce strategies are inherently dangerous in a strategically contested environment. Perhaps, the biggest challenge is that if a country becomes more assured of its counterforce capabilities it is more inclined to initiate a preemptive strike. An indication of this is the fact that India's longstanding NFU status has come under increased scrutiny in the recent times. Prominent Indian analysts such as Bharat Karnad and BS Nagal have been vociferously critical about India's NFU status.
This idea emerges from the BJP 2014 election campaign that calls for a revision and updating of India's nuclear doctrine, indicating the ruling party's future ambitions. This is further solidified from statements of key government officials like Rajnath Singh and Manohar Parrikar.
In conclusion, India's prestige-driven model of strategic ambition creates a security dilemma within the region. Backed by a nationalistic government with stated goals of doctrinal revisions, the South Asian region will remain embroiled in an arms race. The peacock's feathers may continue to shimmer in the sun, but they provide no further protection in the rain, no matter how dazzling they may be. If India truly seeks peace and respect at the international stage, it must rethink whether it wants to impress, or wants to ensure security.
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