Bolivia heads to the polls as its right-wing opposition eyes first victory in decades
The election on Sunday is one of the most consequential for Bolivia in recent times — and one of the most unpredictable.
Even at this late stage, a remarkable 30% or so of voters remain undecided. Polls show the two leading right-wing candidates, multimillionaire business owner Samuel Doria Medina and former President Jorge Fernando 'Tuto' Quiroga, locked in a virtual dead heat.
Many undecided voters
But a right-wing victory isn't assured. Many longtime voters for the governing Movement Toward Socialism, or MAS, party, now shattered by infighting, live in rural areas and tend to be undercounted in polling.
With the nation's worst economic crisis in four decades leaving Bolivians waiting for hours in fuel lines, struggling to find subsidized bread and squeezed by double-digit inflation, the opposition candidates are billing the race as a chance to alter the country's destiny.
'I have rarely, if ever, seen a situational tinderbox with as many sparks ready to ignite,' Daniel Lansberg-Rodriguez, founding partner of Aurora Macro Strategies, a New York-based advisory firm, writes in a memo. Breaking the MAS party's monopoly on political power, he adds, pushes 'the country into uncharted political waters amid rising polarization, severe economic fragility and a widening rural–urban divide.'
Bolivia could follow rightward trend
The outcome will determine whether Bolivia — a nation of about 12 million people with the largest lithium reserves on Earth and crucial deposits of rare earth minerals — follows a growing trend in Latin America, where right-wing leaders like Argentina's libertarian Javier Milei, Ecuador's strongman Daniel Noboa and El Salvador's conservative populist Nayib Bukele have surged in popularity.
A right-wing government in Bolivia could trigger a major geopolitical realignment for a country now allied with Venezuela's socialist-inspired government and world powers such as China, Russia and Iran.
Conservative candidates vow to restore US relations
Doria Medina and Quiroga have praised the Trump administration and vowed to restore ties with the United States — ruptured in 2008 when charismatic, long-serving former President Evo Morales expelled the American ambassador.
The right-wing front-runners also have expressed interest in doing business with Israel, which has no diplomatic relations with Bolivia, and called for foreign private companies to invest in the country and develop its rich natural resources.
After storming to office in 2006 at the start of the commodities boom, Morales, Bolivia's first Indigenous president, nationalized the nation's oil and gas industry, using the lush profits to reduce poverty, expand infrastructure and improve the lives of the rural poor.
After three consecutive presidential terms, as well as a contentious bid for an unprecedented fourth in 2019 that set off popular unrest and led to his ouster, Morales has been barred from this race by Bolivia's constitutional court.
His ally-turned-rival, President Luis Arce, withdrew his candidacy for the MAS on account of his plummeting popularity and nominated his senior minister, Eduardo del Castillo.
As the party splintered, Andrónico Rodríguez, the 36-year-old president of the senate who hails from the same union of coca farmers as Morales, launched his bid.
Ex-president Morales urges supports to deface ballots
Rather than back the candidate widely considered his heir, Morales, holed up in his tropical stronghold and evading an arrest warrant on charges related to his relationship with a 15-year-old girl, has urged his supporters to deface their ballots or leave them blank.
Voting is mandatory in Bolivia, where some 7.9 million Bolivians are eligible to vote.
Doria Medina and Quiroga, familiar faces in Bolivian politics who both served in past neoliberal governments and have run for president three times before, have struggled to stir up interest as voter angst runs high.
'There's enthusiasm for change but no enthusiasm for the candidates,' said Eddy Abasto, 44, a Tupperware vendor in Bolivia's capital of La Paz torn between voting for Doria Medina and Quiroga. 'It's always the same, those in power live happily spending the country's money, and we suffer.'
Conservative candidates say austerity needed
Doria Medina and Quiroga have warned of the need for a painful fiscal adjustment, including the elimination of Bolivia's generous food and fuel subsidies, to save the nation from insolvency. Some analysts caution this risks sparking social unrest.
'A victory for either right-wing candidate could have grave repercussions for Bolivia's Indigenous and impoverished communities,' said Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network, a Bolivian research group. 'Both candidates could bolster security forces and right-wing para-state groups, paving the way for violent crackdowns on protests expected to erupt over the foreign exploitation of lithium and drastic austerity measures.'
All 130 seats in Bolivia's Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of Parliament, are up for grabs, along with 36 in the Senate, the upper house.
If, as is widely expected, no one receives more than 50% of the vote, or 40% of the vote with a lead of 10 percentage points, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff on Oct. 19 for the first time since Bolivia's 1982 return to democracy.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Toronto Star
22 minutes ago
- Toronto Star
South Korean and US militaries begin annual summertime drills to cope with North Korean threats
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea and the United States began their annual large-scale joint military exercise on Monday to better cope with threats by nuclear-armed North Korea, which has warned the drills would deepen regional tensions and vowed to respond to 'any provocation' against its territory. The 11-day Ulchi Freedom Shield, the second of two large-scale exercises held annually in South Korea, after another set in March, will involve 21,000 soldiers, including 18,000 South Koreans, in computer-simulated command post operations and field training.
Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
South Korean and US militaries begin annual summertime drills to cope with North Korean threats
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea and the United States began their annual large-scale joint military exercise on Monday to better cope with threats by nuclear-armed North Korea, which has warned the drills would deepen regional tensions and vowed to respond to 'any provocation' against its territory. The 11-day Ulchi Freedom Shield, the second of two large-scale exercises held annually in South Korea, after another set in March, will involve 21,000 soldiers, including 18,000 South Koreans, in computer-simulated command post operations and field training. The drills, which the allies describe as defensive, could trigger a response from North Korea, which has long portrayed the allies' exercises as invasion rehearsals and has often used them as a pretext for military demonstrations and weapons tests aimed at advancing its nuclear program. In a statement last week, North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang Chol said the drills show the allies' stance of 'military confrontation' with the North and declared that its forces would be ready to counteract 'any provocation going beyond the boundary line.' Ulchi Freedom Shield comes at a pivotal moment for South Korea's new liberal President Lee Jae Myung, who is preparing for an Aug. 25 summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington. Trump has raised concerns in Seoul that he may upend the decades-old alliance by demanding higher payments for the American troop presence in South Korea and possibly reducing it as Washington shifts its focus more toward China. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high as North Korea has brushed aside Lee's calls to resume diplomacy with its war-divided rival, with relations having soured in recent years as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un accelerated his weapons program and deepened alignment with Moscow following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Seoul's previous conservative government responded to North Korean threats by expanding military exercises with the United States and seeking stronger U.S. assurances for nuclear deterrence, drawing an angry reaction from Kim, who last year renounced long-term reconciliation goals and rewrote the North's constitution to label the South a permanent enemy. In his latest message to Pyongyang on Friday, Lee, who took office in June, said he would seek to restore a 2018-inter-Korean military agreement designed to reduce border tensions and called for North Korea to respond to the South's efforts to rebuild trust and revive talks. The 2018 military agreement, reached during a brief period of diplomacy between South Korea's former liberal President Moon Jae-in and Kim, created buffer zones on land and sea and no-fly zones above the border to prevent clashes. But South Korea suspended the deal in 2024, citing tensions over North Korea's launches of trash-laden balloons toward the South, and moved to resume frontline military activities and propaganda campaigns. The step came after North Korea had already declared it would no longer abide by the agreement. When asked whether the Lee government's steps to restore the agreement would affect the allies' drills, the South's Defense Ministry said Monday that there are no immediate plans to suspend live-fire training near the Koreas' disputed maritime border. While the allies have postponed half of Ulchi Freedom Shield's originally planned 44 field training programs to September, U.S. military officials denied South Korean media speculation that the scaled-back drills were meant to make room for diplomacy with the North, citing heat concerns and flood damage to some training fields. Dating back to his first term, Trump has regularly called for South Korea to pay more for the 28,500 American troops stationed on its soil. Public comments by senior Trump administration officials, including Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, have suggested a push to restructure the alliance, which some experts say could potentially affect the size and role of U.S. forces in South Korea. Under this approach, South Korea would take a greater role in countering North Korean threats while U.S. forces focus more on China, possibly leaving Seoul to face reduced benefits but increased costs and risks, experts say. In a recent meeting with reporters, Gen. Xavier Brunson, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, stressed the need to 'modernize' the alliance to address the evolving security environment, including North Korea's nuclear ambitions, its deepening alignment with Russia, and what he called Chinese threats to a 'free and open Indo-Pacific.'
Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Hong Kong court begins hearing final arguments in Jimmy Lai's national security trial
HONG KONG (AP) — A Hong Kong court began hearing final arguments Monday in the landmark national security trial of former pro-democracy newspaper founder Jimmy Lai, who could be sentenced to up to life in prison if he is convicted. Lai, 77, was arrested in 2020 under a national security law imposed by Beijing following anti-government protests in 2019. He is being tried on charges of colluding with foreign forces to endanger national security and conspiring with others to issue seditious publications. Lai founded Apple Daily, one of the local media outlets that was most critical against Hong Kong's government. His high-profile case — which has already stretched nearly 150 days, far beyond the original estimate of 80 days — is widely seen as a trial of press freedom and a test for judicial independence in the Asian financial hub. Prosecutors allege that Lai asked foreign countries, especially the United States, to take actions against Beijing 'under the guise of fighting for freedom and democracy.' On the first day of his testimony, he denied he had asked then-Vice President Mike Pence and then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to take action against Hong Kong and China during the 2019 protests. Later, when Lai's lawyer questioned him about an Apple Daily report saying he had asked the U.S. government to sanction Beijing and Hong Kong leaders, he said he must have discussed it with Pompeo, as he had no reason to doubt the accuracy of the report by the now-defunct newspaper he founded. But Lai said he would not have encouraged foreign sanctions after the national security law was enacted on June 30, 2020. The closing arguments have been delayed twice, first due to weather then to concerns over Lai's health. On Friday, his lawyer, Robert Pang, said Lai had experienced heart palpitations while in prison. The judges wanted him to secure a heart monitor and medication first. After Friday's hearing, the Hong Kong government alleged foreign media outlets had attempted to mislead the public about Lai's medical care. It said a medical examination of Lai found no abnormalities and that the medical care he received in custody was adequate. It is unclear when the verdict will be delivered. Lai's yearslong detention, especially in solidarity confinement, has drawn concerns from foreign governments and rights groups. U.S. President Donald Trump, before being elected to his second term in November, said he would talk to Chinese leader Xi Jinping to seek Lai's release: 'One hundred percent, I will get him out.' In a Fox News radio interview released last Thursday, Trump denied saying he would '100%' save Lai, but rather that he would bring the issue up. 'I've already brought it up, and I'm going to do everything I can to save him,' he said. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. China has accused Lai of stirring a rise in anti-China sentiments in Hong Kong and said it firmly opposes the interference of other countries in its internal affairs. Dozens of people waited in the rain Monday for a seat in the main courtroom to see Lai. Former Apple Daily reader Susan Li said she worried about Lai's health as he looked visibly thinner, and she would continue to pray for him. 'I wanted to let him know we are still here,' she said. When Hong Kong, a former British colony, returned to China in 1997, Beijing promised to retain the city's civil liberties for 50 years. But critics say that promise has become threadbare after the introduction of the security law, which Chinese and Hong Kong authorities insist was necessary for the city's stability.
