Economy and culture wars cost the Liberals with voters

Australia Broadcast Center

4 days ago

There has been a lot of talk the so-called "lessons" for the Liberal Party after its decimation at the last election.
From culture wars to the economy, the lessons from this election are widespread and some blatantly obvious.
One particular area of soul searching has been about the way the Voice referendum and the messages — or non-messages — it sent have been used and misused. The other about the impact of welcome-to-country debate. There's a growing consensus that an obsession with these issues is damaging the Liberal Party brand, particularly in the cities.
What there hasn't been enough reflection on is how the Liberal Party failed in areas where it has always had a traditional advantage — the economy.
New post-election research demonstrates the Coalition is losing its advantage even here. If the trend continues, that is diabolical for the Liberals.
When Treasurer Jim Chalmers was first appointed treasurer three years ago, he made it his mission to reverse the reputation of Labor being weak on the economy.
What is extraordinary about the federal election is despite the cost-of-living crisis, voters, who overwhelmingly vote on the state of the economy, marked Labor just ahead of the Coalition.
After every election there are surveys done to understand why voters went the way they did.
A report from Talbot Mills Research, one of the polling firms used by Labor, found Labor had beaten the opposition on the economy.
When voters were asked, unprompted, what their most important voting factors where, 18 per cent chose inflation and cost of living as their most important issue.
Talbot Mills Research director David Talbot said the research showed the Liberals had lost ground in this area.
"In our research, Labor ended up with a one-point edge over the Liberals as the better party for managing the economy," he said.
"Around the world, centre-right parties typically lead by 10 to 15 points on this question. If Labor can continue to match or beat the Coalition on economic management, it could position them to become the natural party of government in Australia," he said.
Before the election, it was clear the prime minister was spooked by talking about Aboriginal affairs because of the Voice defeat and the way Peter Dutton had weaponised it.
Just a few weeks before he called the election, Anthony Albanese distanced himself from the Uluru statement's other requests — treaty and truth-telling — disappointing Aboriginal leaders and showing Labor's timidity after the Voice.
But after its landslide election victory, there is a quiet shift going on inside Labor, another realignment on how it should handle these issues.
It is being led by Indigenous people either in or aligned with Labor who believe the election has signalled a seismic shift in the politics around Aboriginal affairs.
The federal government has now signalled it is open to considering a national truth-telling process — a dramatic shift that speaks volumes about its growing confidence.
Speaking to me on Thursday, Indigenous Australians Minister Malarndirri McCarthy said that while the Voice was lost, there was an opportunity to learn from the different states conducting truth-telling, including Victoria and South Australia, and said the government was committed to the principles of the Uluru Statement from the Heart.
Pressed on if she wanted to commit and advance the principles — especially truth-telling — in Labor's second term, she said: "We've never shied away from the principles."
"We have a First Nations caucus to meet. We've got to be sworn into parliament at the end of July. There's still a road to go. But can I say to your viewers, I am very much open to listening to what people have to say," she said.
McCarthy said the election result sent a strong message about these issues.
"There was also welcome to countries and we saw how the opposition wanted to use cultural wars through the election to determine the outcome of the referendum.
"And our country, thankfully, voted no against hate. Voted no against culture wars and supported us in moving forward.
"I take that not only as the minister for Indigenous Australians but also as a woman in the Labor caucus. I take that as an opportunity for us now as a Labor government to really have a good look at what we can do in this term."
It is the first sign — subtly and gently delivered — that the minister for Indigenous Australians sees the significant political capital Labor now has as an opportunity to meet the needs of Indigenous Australians.
Professor Marcia Langton, who campaigned for a Yes vote, has long talked about truth-telling, declaring after the referendum that Yolngu leader Galarrwuy Yunupingu had taught her many years ago that you know when you're being told the truth, because "the truth burns".
She says the country now has a unique opportunity to embark on a process of learning about the past.
In the time since the Voice defeat, she has been working on several projects that at their heart tell the truth about the history of our country.
One is a truth-telling book about the history of Melbourne University. The other — an art exhibition called 65,000 Years: A Short History of Australian Art, featuring more than 400 works — opened on Friday.
The exhibition places confronting chapters of Australia's post-colonial history on display, works from early European arrival to the University of Melbourne's historic eugenics practices.
"Many works are works of truth-telling. They're not simply decorative," Langton says. Across the country, truth telling has been quietly progressing while politicians have been shouting.
Langton now believes the time has come for the country to turn the corner.
"Albanese's government has an unprecedented mandate to improve the lives of all Australians. His government also has an unprecedented opportunity to achieve equity for the most disadvantaged Australians," she said.
"While I congratulate him for his courage in putting the referendum question to Australian voters, I also ask him to see clearly through the fog of racism that LNP leaders instigated, to be brave and compassionate.
"Indigenous leaders do not want power; we want to advise on sound policies that correct the history of failure in closing the gap.
"I want to see great courage from our prime minister and his cabinet to stare down those who think it is OK to allow the horrific disadvantages faced by far too many Indigenous Australians: sky-rocketing incarceration and child removal rates, unemployment, food insecurity and stubbornly high chronic disease.
"Elevating our aspirations for economic development and accelerated education and employment supports to shift people towards equity sooner, not 30 years from now — that's what I would like Albanese to lead."
Langton believes that in the federal election, voters "turned against the culture wars directed against them and their wellbeing".
The messages of Labor's whopping election victory are many. But the opportunities are now self-evident.
By the end of last week, it became clear that One Nation got the same number of senators up as the Nationals.
One Nation also took 6.4 per cent of the primary vote. The Nationals, if you include the CLP, got 4.03 per cent of the primary. If you add in a third of the LNP vote, they still only reach 6.39 per cent of the primary — less than One Nation.
NSW Liberal senator Dave Sharma has been making the case that the Liberals need to embark on a policy process that better understands the needs of the cities. The fact the Nationals are so small yet demand so much explains the frustration in Liberal ranks.
"The Liberals have been evicted from the cities. We now only hold eight of 88 metropolitan seats. Winning back these suburban votes, in part by ensuring we reflect their values and priorities, must be our most important focus if we are to remain a competitive party of government," Sharma tells me.
"The Nationals have their constituency, and we have ours, and we both need to respect that."
Other Liberals tell me the links are clear. A failure to own the economic narrative and an over-focus on issues that are either low order for Australians — or seen in Australian capital cities as largely settled. Flags don't win elections.
Patricia Karvelas is presenter of ABC TV's Q+A, host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.