Latest news with #TalbotMillsResearch
Scoop
2 hours ago
- Business
- Scoop
ASB Business Survey: The Impact Of Trump's Tariffs, According To Kiwi Businesses
Research released today by ASB, supported by Talbot Mills Research, shows Kiwi businesses see US tariffs as more impactful than Covid-19 or the Global Financial Crisis. More than 300 business leaders, including CEOs and founders, contributed to the study, giving their insights on President Trump's recently announced trade policies. Two-thirds (67%) of businesses are concerned about the impact of proposed US tariffs in the next 12 months, with nearly 80% of exporters concerned Kiwi business leaders believe Trump's tariffs will have a more severe global impact than Covid-19 and the GFC Meat, dairy and wine are seen as the most vulnerable within Food and Fibre sector, while businesses predict wool and seafood would fare better Nearly one-quarter (24%) of Kiwi businesses see at least some opportunity in the tariffs More than one-third (39%) of respondents listed support of banks as critical to navigating the current environment Tariffs: a threat and an opportunity for Kiwi businesses ASB's Executive General Manager Business Banking Rebecca James says: 'We're seeing sustained market volatility with the ever-changing political decisions around tariffs, which naturally creates a heightened sense of uncertainty for businesses. It's clear businesses view any proposed US tariffs as troubling, but it's pleasing that nearly a quarter of respondents see opportunity in tariffs too. New Zealand has a reputation on the world stage for ingenuity and a can-do attitude, and we want businesses to know there are things they can do to future-proof and manage risks in turbulent times.' President Trump first announced tariffs in April as part of the 'America First' trade policy, aimed at protecting US industries and addressing the trade deficit. The tariffs are set at 10% for most countries, including New Zealand, with China a notable outlier where a larger tariff has been applied to Chinese origin goods. Additional proposed tariffs higher than the 10% baseline were paused for a 90-day period and will be reviewed in July. Businesses are split on how long potential disruption could last. A slight majority (51%) of Kiwi businesses are optimistic that the economy will recover quickly, while 38% predict a prolonged economic downturn for the country and the remainder were unsure. Taking action key to growth 14% of those surveyed view US tariffs purely as an opportunity, while 10% see them as both a potential risk and an opportunity. Ten percent of businesses and 14% of exporters have already taken action to reduce the negative impacts of tariffs including raising prices, shifting markets or cutting costs. Just under one-third (30%) believe they can make up losses through new customers or cost savings; 25% from operational efficiencies, and 22% from other revenue streams. 22% are unsure, with uncertainty highest among small businesses. 'The current market volatility and geopolitical tension may be our 'new normal', but we've been in positions of global uncertainty before and the research shows Kiwi businesses are already thinking about actions they can take to make their business more resilient and generate returns.' Ms James encourages businesses to stay connected to industry partners, trade advocacy groups and their banks to share knowledge and ideas when it comes to growth and scale. 'Business customers are relying on us more than ever to navigate the current environment, and we're seeing this through an increase in trade finance and a rise in currency hedging enquiries. Our advice is to start exploring options now. We're seeing customers adapting their business strategy in all sorts of ways, so solutions for your business might look like assessing AI to improve workflow, adjusting your supply chain, selling down stock before new inventory orders, building new trade relationships or exploring untapped markets.' Businesses shifting their focus to closer to home More than three-quarters of Kiwi exporters expect the cost of doing business with the US to increase by 10% or more in the next year. Concern is higher among exporters (78%) and increases with business size, with worry growing to 88% among 100+ staff businesses). The potential impacts of tariffs which were of the most concern to businesses include slowing economic growth (39%), increased operating costs (32%) and supply chain disruptions (28%). Nearly one-quarter of businesses are worried about consumer backlash due to price inflation (24%), along with 23% who see a China-US Trade war as unsettling for business. Some of the most explored markets by businesses are China (51%), Australia (37%), European Union (28%) and Southeast Asia (25%). 'The research shows a pendulum swing when it comes to trading partners, with businesses redirecting their attention to our close neighbours. Location seems to be king, with our customers prioritising relationships much closer to home,' says Ms James. 'We're also seeing exporters maintaining high standards and doubling down on premium products to give us an edge on the global stage, even where it costs more for consumers.' The role of banks as a critical support function Businesses see Government lobbying as the most critical tool in helping to reduce the impact of tariffs, with banks the next most important. More than one-third (39%) of respondents listed support of banks as critical, specifically working capital support (31%), risk advice (26%) and trade finance (24%). 'ASB has provided $4.6 billion dollars to Kiwi businesses over the past five years including considerable support to companies looking to expand and navigate opportunities abroad. We have seen increased use of trade finance products, aided by trade credit insurance, enabling businesses to sustainably leverage balance sheets while derisking payment default. We encourage companies doing business overseas to speak with their banker and engage with a trade specialist to ensure your business is in the strongest position," says Ms James. ASB Bank Helping you get one step ahead. In 1847, ASB opened as the Auckland Savings Bank with the pledge: 'to serve the community; to grow and to help Kiwis grow'. And that is very much what ASB is about today. ASB is a leading provider of integrated financial services in New Zealand including retail, business and rural banking, funds management and insurance. ASB strives to consistently provide its customers with outstanding service and innovative financial solutions. They're dedicated to providing simple financial products that allow their customers to bank with them how and when they want. We all have our own ways to measure progress, and our own stories about the things that matter to us. Whatever way you choose to measure progress, and whatever your goals, ASB is there to help you get one step ahead. Contact ASB Bank
ABC News
2 days ago
- Business
- ABC News
Economy and culture wars cost the Liberals with voters
There has been a lot of talk the so-called "lessons" for the Liberal Party after its decimation at the last election. From culture wars to the economy, the lessons from this election are widespread and some blatantly obvious. One particular area of soul searching has been about the way the Voice referendum and the messages — or non-messages — it sent have been used and misused. The other about the impact of welcome-to-country debate. There's a growing consensus that an obsession with these issues is damaging the Liberal Party brand, particularly in the cities. What there hasn't been enough reflection on is how the Liberal Party failed in areas where it has always had a traditional advantage — the economy. New post-election research demonstrates the Coalition is losing its advantage even here. If the trend continues, that is diabolical for the Liberals. When Treasurer Jim Chalmers was first appointed treasurer three years ago, he made it his mission to reverse the reputation of Labor being weak on the economy. What is extraordinary about the federal election is despite the cost-of-living crisis, voters, who overwhelmingly vote on the state of the economy, marked Labor just ahead of the Coalition. After every election there are surveys done to understand why voters went the way they did. A report from Talbot Mills Research, one of the polling firms used by Labor, found Labor had beaten the opposition on the economy. When voters were asked, unprompted, what their most important voting factors where, 18 per cent chose inflation and cost of living as their most important issue. Talbot Mills Research director David Talbot said the research showed the Liberals had lost ground in this area. "In our research, Labor ended up with a one-point edge over the Liberals as the better party for managing the economy," he said. "Around the world, centre-right parties typically lead by 10 to 15 points on this question. If Labor can continue to match or beat the Coalition on economic management, it could position them to become the natural party of government in Australia," he said. Before the election, it was clear the prime minister was spooked by talking about Aboriginal affairs because of the Voice defeat and the way Peter Dutton had weaponised it. Just a few weeks before he called the election, Anthony Albanese distanced himself from the Uluru statement's other requests — treaty and truth-telling — disappointing Aboriginal leaders and showing Labor's timidity after the Voice. But after its landslide election victory, there is a quiet shift going on inside Labor, another realignment on how it should handle these issues. It is being led by Indigenous people either in or aligned with Labor who believe the election has signalled a seismic shift in the politics around Aboriginal affairs. The federal government has now signalled it is open to considering a national truth-telling process — a dramatic shift that speaks volumes about its growing confidence. Speaking to me on Thursday, Indigenous Australians Minister Malarndirri McCarthy said that while the Voice was lost, there was an opportunity to learn from the different states conducting truth-telling, including Victoria and South Australia, and said the government was committed to the principles of the Uluru Statement from the Heart. Pressed on if she wanted to commit and advance the principles — especially truth-telling — in Labor's second term, she said: "We've never shied away from the principles." "We have a First Nations caucus to meet. We've got to be sworn into parliament at the end of July. There's still a road to go. But can I say to your viewers, I am very much open to listening to what people have to say," she said. McCarthy said the election result sent a strong message about these issues. "There was also welcome to countries and we saw how the opposition wanted to use cultural wars through the election to determine the outcome of the referendum. "And our country, thankfully, voted no against hate. Voted no against culture wars and supported us in moving forward. "I take that not only as the minister for Indigenous Australians but also as a woman in the Labor caucus. I take that as an opportunity for us now as a Labor government to really have a good look at what we can do in this term." It is the first sign — subtly and gently delivered — that the minister for Indigenous Australians sees the significant political capital Labor now has as an opportunity to meet the needs of Indigenous Australians. Professor Marcia Langton, who campaigned for a Yes vote, has long talked about truth-telling, declaring after the referendum that Yolngu leader Galarrwuy Yunupingu had taught her many years ago that you know when you're being told the truth, because "the truth burns". She says the country now has a unique opportunity to embark on a process of learning about the past. In the time since the Voice defeat, she has been working on several projects that at their heart tell the truth about the history of our country. One is a truth-telling book about the history of Melbourne University. The other — an art exhibition called 65,000 Years: A Short History of Australian Art, featuring more than 400 works — opened on Friday. The exhibition places confronting chapters of Australia's post-colonial history on display, works from early European arrival to the University of Melbourne's historic eugenics practices. "Many works are works of truth-telling. They're not simply decorative," Langton says. Across the country, truth telling has been quietly progressing while politicians have been shouting. Langton now believes the time has come for the country to turn the corner. "Albanese's government has an unprecedented mandate to improve the lives of all Australians. His government also has an unprecedented opportunity to achieve equity for the most disadvantaged Australians," she said. "While I congratulate him for his courage in putting the referendum question to Australian voters, I also ask him to see clearly through the fog of racism that LNP leaders instigated, to be brave and compassionate. "Indigenous leaders do not want power; we want to advise on sound policies that correct the history of failure in closing the gap. "I want to see great courage from our prime minister and his cabinet to stare down those who think it is OK to allow the horrific disadvantages faced by far too many Indigenous Australians: sky-rocketing incarceration and child removal rates, unemployment, food insecurity and stubbornly high chronic disease. "Elevating our aspirations for economic development and accelerated education and employment supports to shift people towards equity sooner, not 30 years from now — that's what I would like Albanese to lead." Langton believes that in the federal election, voters "turned against the culture wars directed against them and their wellbeing". The messages of Labor's whopping election victory are many. But the opportunities are now self-evident. By the end of last week, it became clear that One Nation got the same number of senators up as the Nationals. One Nation also took 6.4 per cent of the primary vote. The Nationals, if you include the CLP, got 4.03 per cent of the primary. If you add in a third of the LNP vote, they still only reach 6.39 per cent of the primary — less than One Nation. NSW Liberal senator Dave Sharma has been making the case that the Liberals need to embark on a policy process that better understands the needs of the cities. The fact the Nationals are so small yet demand so much explains the frustration in Liberal ranks. "The Liberals have been evicted from the cities. We now only hold eight of 88 metropolitan seats. Winning back these suburban votes, in part by ensuring we reflect their values and priorities, must be our most important focus if we are to remain a competitive party of government," Sharma tells me. "The Nationals have their constituency, and we have ours, and we both need to respect that." Other Liberals tell me the links are clear. A failure to own the economic narrative and an over-focus on issues that are either low order for Australians — or seen in Australian capital cities as largely settled. Flags don't win elections. Patricia Karvelas is presenter of ABC TV's Q+A, host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.
NZ Herald
3 days ago
- Business
- NZ Herald
If you didn't like this year's Budget, just wait until the superannuation one
New Zealanders were asked, and it turns out the Government's Budget is not all that popular with voters. According to the results of a Talbot Mills Research poll, 33% of respondents said the Budget was bad when asked if it will be good for the country overall, bad or wouldn't
Scoop
21-05-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Poll Shows Overwhelming Majority Support Increase In Spending On Public Services
Press Release – Better Taxes for a Better Future This poll shows that there is widespread support for greater investment in our public services to meet the needs of New Zealanders, such as in healthcare, and education, says Glenn Barclay spokesperson for the Better Taxes campaign. As the Government prepares to release a Budget that will deliver further cuts to public services an overwhelming majority of New Zealanders support increased spending on those services, according to a new poll commissioned by the Better Taxes for a Better Future campaign. The Talbot Mills Research poll asked whether government spending on key public services such as hospitals, schools, and the police should increase (a lot or a bit), stay the same or decrease (a bit or a lot). 83% of respondents supported increases in public spending, and this support remained high across the political spectrum with even 62% of ACT supporters endorsing an increase. 'This poll shows that there is widespread support for greater investment in our public services to meet the needs of New Zealanders, such as in healthcare, and education,' says Glenn Barclay spokesperson for the Better Taxes campaign. 'It's clear that, even in these tough economic times, people across the political spectrum realise investment in public services now is important to help build a better future.' The poll also asked if wealthier New Zealanders ( who earn over $180,000 per year and/or have assets worth more than $5m) should pay more, the same, or less tax than they do at present. A majority (57%) supported the wealthy paying more tax. 'This may not be a surprising result for Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori supporters, yet even a majority of National Party supporters favour the wealthy paying more tax,' says Glenn Barclay. 'The IR report into High Net Worth Individuals in 2023 demonstrated that the wealthiest 310 families in New Zealand had an effective tax rate of 9.4% compared to over 20% for the average New Zealander and it is clear that there is support for rectifying this imbalance,' says Glenn Barclay. 'The responses to these two questions send a clear message that New Zealanders don't want to see cuts to essential public services, and the government needs to be looking at other ways to generate the revenue we need to provide services that will enable all New Zealanders to succeed,' says Glenn Barclay. 'We encourage the Government and opposition parties to be looking at tax changes that would ensure those that have more to contribute, make that contribution. Gathering more revenue from wealth and gains from wealth would put us in a better position to address the challenges we face in delivering public services, addressing poverty and climate change, and funding major infrastructure.' Note: The Better Taxes for a Better Future Campaign is a coalition of over 20 organisations led by Tax Justice Aotearoa. We believe that tax reform is the only solution to the current challenges facing Aotearoa NZ. We need the tax system to: be transparent raise more revenue to enable us address the challenges we face make sure people who have more to contribute make that contribution: that we gather more revenue from wealth, gains from wealth, all forms of income, and corporates make greater use of fair taxes to promote good health and environmental health address the tax impact on the least well off in our society.
Scoop
21-05-2025
- Business
- Scoop
Poll Shows Overwhelming Majority Support Increase In Spending On Public Services
Press Release – Better Taxes for a Better Future This poll shows that there is widespread support for greater investment in our public services to meet the needs of New Zealanders, such as in healthcare, and education, says Glenn Barclay spokesperson for the Better Taxes campaign. As the Government prepares to release a Budget that will deliver further cuts to public services an overwhelming majority of New Zealanders support increased spending on those services, according to a new poll commissioned by the Better Taxes for a Better Future campaign. The Talbot Mills Research poll asked whether government spending on key public services such as hospitals, schools, and the police should increase (a lot or a bit), stay the same or decrease (a bit or a lot). 83% of respondents supported increases in public spending, and this support remained high across the political spectrum with even 62% of ACT supporters endorsing an increase. 'This poll shows that there is widespread support for greater investment in our public services to meet the needs of New Zealanders, such as in healthcare, and education,' says Glenn Barclay spokesperson for the Better Taxes campaign. 'It's clear that, even in these tough economic times, people across the political spectrum realise investment in public services now is important to help build a better future.' The poll also asked if wealthier New Zealanders ( who earn over $180,000 per year and/or have assets worth more than $5m) should pay more, the same, or less tax than they do at present. A majority (57%) supported the wealthy paying more tax. 'This may not be a surprising result for Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori supporters, yet even a majority of National Party supporters favour the wealthy paying more tax,' says Glenn Barclay. 'The IR report into High Net Worth Individuals in 2023 demonstrated that the wealthiest 310 families in New Zealand had an effective tax rate of 9.4% compared to over 20% for the average New Zealander and it is clear that there is support for rectifying this imbalance,' says Glenn Barclay. 'The responses to these two questions send a clear message that New Zealanders don't want to see cuts to essential public services, and the government needs to be looking at other ways to generate the revenue we need to provide services that will enable all New Zealanders to succeed,' says Glenn Barclay. 'We encourage the Government and opposition parties to be looking at tax changes that would ensure those that have more to contribute, make that contribution. Gathering more revenue from wealth and gains from wealth would put us in a better position to address the challenges we face in delivering public services, addressing poverty and climate change, and funding major infrastructure.' Note: The Better Taxes for a Better Future Campaign is a coalition of over 20 organisations led by Tax Justice Aotearoa. We believe that tax reform is the only solution to the current challenges facing Aotearoa NZ. We need the tax system to: be transparent raise more revenue to enable us address the challenges we face make sure people who have more to contribute make that contribution: that we gather more revenue from wealth, gains from wealth, all forms of income, and corporates make greater use of fair taxes to promote good health and environmental health address the tax impact on the least well off in our society.
