UAE: Gold prices likely to touch $3,200 amid geopolitical tensions, Fed rate cuts
Analysts project that geopolitical tensions, inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and central bank buying will continue to support yellow metal in the medium term.
The precious metal crossed the $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time ever on March 14, solidifying its position as a safe haven asset amidst global uncertainties.
'We retain our bullish stance on gold, and having met our previous target of $3,000 per ounce, we have revised our target to $3,200 per ounce by June and through March 2026,' said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.
The last time bullion crossed a 'thousand-dollar' threshold was when it broke through the $2,000 per ounce mark in August 2020 amid uncertainty surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic.
'With the $3,000 milestone reached, investors may be uncertain if gold's appeal can extend further. But we see several reasons why gold looks likely to remain well-supported. Geopolitical flashpoints remain fraught; markets have moved to price in a faster pace of rate cuts from the Fed, providing extra support for gold; and gold inflows into ETFs are materialising,' said Haefele.
'While the market has drifted into technically overbought territory, we think the prevailing mood among investors remains cautious, which is likely to support the appetite for gold. The precious metal remains a key portfolio hedge against near-term uncertainty, but also against episodic bouts of risk aversion further out,' he added.
Gold closed the week at $3,022.95 per ounce, down 0.45 per cent. It hit $3,047.8 per ounce earlier last week. In the UAE, 24K closed at Dh364.5 per gram, 22K at Dh337.5, 21K at Dh323.5 and 18K at Dh277.25 over the weekend.
Yellow metal slightly declined due to the strength of the US dollar, as the greenback's strong performance encourages some traders to take profits and reduce their bullish bets on the precious metal.
However, according to Rania Gule, senior market analyst for Mena at XS.com, this decline does not necessarily indicate a reversal in the overall trend, as fundamental factors support gold in the medium term.
'The Federal Reserve has signalled that it will cut interest rates only twice this year, which has strengthened the dollar and exerted some downward pressure on gold, especially as traders continue to reassess their economic outlook,' she added.
'There is still a belief that the Fed may be forced to accelerate the pace of monetary easing sooner than expected due to growing concerns about a slowdown in US economic growth caused by tariffs. Ongoing trade tensions, exemplified by President Donald Trump's threats to impose new tariffs, could slow economic activity, potentially pushing the Fed toward a more accommodative monetary policy. In this scenario, the dollar could lose momentum, supporting gold prices as a safe-haven asset in an unstable environment,' said Gule.
Furthermore, heightened instability in Ukraine and the Middle East increases the appeal of the yellow metal as a hedge against risk.
'Given these factors, gold is expected to maintain its fundamental support despite short-term profit-taking. If the strength of the US dollar persists, gold may face resistance at current levels. However, any indication of the Fed shifting towards more monetary easing or escalating geopolitical tensions could restore bullish momentum for the precious metal. Therefore, gold remains in a balanced position between the downward pressure from a strong dollar and the continued support from economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks,' said XS.com analyst.
She added that price corrections remain expected given the current market volatility.
'If the Fed begins cutting interest rates, gold is likely to rise toward the $3,100–$3,125 range, with the potential for further gains to $3,180–$3,200 if global economic concerns increase or we experience sharp geopolitical disruptions. Additionally, the ongoing gold purchases by central banks, particularly in China and Russia, could reinforce the bullish trend.'
Gule noted that the psychological level of $3,000 will remain a critical support level, and any break below it could lead to further declines towards $2,978 and then $2,930.
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