Oil Edges Higher With Trade Policy and Demand Signals in Focus
West Texas Intermediate rose toward $67 a barrel after shedding almost 3% in the opening two days of the week. Brent settled just below $69 on Tuesday. Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia, and also said he expected to conclude 'two or three' more accords before an Aug. 1 deadline.
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Yahoo
16 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Super Micro (SMCI) Rallies 10.2% as US Freezes Export Curbs to China
We recently published . Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) is one of the best-performing stocks on Monday. Super Micro jumped for a fourth straight day on Monday, adding 10.24 percent to close at $60.05 apiece as investors cheered President Donald Trump's decision to freeze export restrictions on technology products to China as Washington and Beijing resume trade negotiations. The US and China will meet in Stockholm for a third round of trade talks on Monday, following previous meetings in Geneva and London. Known for its AI-focused server systems, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) is one of the companies benefiting from increased technology spending this year. Year-to-date, its stock has gone up by almost 100 percent as more companies globally build large artificial intelligence workloads. Copyright: wavebreakmediamicro / 123RF Stock Photo In other developments, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) is set to announce the results of its earnings performance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 after market close on August 5. An investor call will be held on the same day to elaborate on the results. While we acknowledge the potential of SMCI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the . Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
16 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Stock market today: S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as earnings flood in, jobs data on deck
US stocks moved higher on Tuesday, eyeing a bid for more records as investors combed through a fresh rush of corporate earnings and waited for key economic data in a big week on Wall Street. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.2% on the heels of narrowly notching a sixth all-time closing high in a row, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led the way higher with a 0.4% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was roughly flat. The mood is modestly upbeat as a blockbuster week for markets gets into full swing. The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, while the JOLTS job openings update for June due later ushers in a series of crucial labor data culminating in Friday's nonfarm payrolls report. Meanwhile, earnings take center stage as before-the-bell reports from Spotify (SPOT), Merck (MRK), and UnitedHealth (UNH) disappointed Wall Street. Some news were better than others: Boeing (BA) shares lifted as the world's largest planemaker's quarterly results topped expectations. After the bell Tuesday, Starbucks (SBUX) earnings will be scrutinized for signs of turnaround progress and of the impact of tariffs. The wave of earnings Tuesday will help set the tone for this week's highlights: results from tech giants Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META). Read more: Full earnings coverage in our live blog Also looming large is President Trump's deadline Friday for trading partners to strike deals or face blanket tariff rates. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau on Tuesday reported a sharp decline in the US goods trade deficit in June as businesses looked to get ahead of tariffs. Hopes for an extension to the US-China trade truce are buoying the likes of AI chipmaker Nvidia's (NVDA) stock. Read more: The latest on Trump's tariffs Trade war fears may have lost their grip on markets, given the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) only barely managed new records on Monday despite a new US-EU trade deal. On Tuesday's economic docket, Conference Board's July reading on consumer confidence and a S&P CoreLogic print on home prices in May provide a health check on the economy ahead of an update on second quarter GDP later this week, P&G dips as it warns of $1 billion tariff hit Procter & Gamble (PG) stock dipped about 1%, reversing a slight premarket gain, as the company took a cautious approach with its financial outlook while it navigates uncertain consumer sentiment and Trump's tariffs. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read the full story here. Tech leads stocks higher at the open The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led US stocks higher at the open on Tuesday morning with a 0.5% gain. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.2% on the heels of notching a sixth all-time closing high in a row on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) opened roughly flat. Investors are digesting a wave of earnings reports and US trade data showing a sharp narrowing in the deficit (as tariffs loom). Meanwhile, they are looking ahead to the JOLTS job openings update for June at 10 a.m. ET. for labor market insight. Major drugmakers mixed amid earnings Of the notable drugmakers reporting earnings Tuesday, AstraZeneca rose almost 2% and Merck fell nearly 4% before the market open. British drugmaker AstraZeneca reported second quarter revenue ahead of expectations Tuesday, with its cancer drugs helping fuel sales for the period. Meanwhile, fellow pharma giant Merck reported earnings below Wall Street's projections, according to Bloomberg consensus data, and revenue from its HPV vaccine Gardasil was also less than expected amid continued headwinds in China. Investors are also bracing for patents for its drug Keytruda (which accounted for roughly half of its second quarter revenue) to expire in 2028. Also on Tuesday, Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NVO) plummeted roughly 20%. The firm cut its 2025 revenue and profit outlook, pointing to lower than expected sales growth of its obesity drug Wegovy in the US, ahead of its second quarter earnings results slated for Aug. 6. Trump's DOJ puts companies on notice: Don't evade tariffs The Justice Department is putting American companies on notice that they could be prosecuted if they chose to evade President Trump's tariffs, even as the legality of the president's "Liberation Day" duties remain unsettled in US courts. Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. Nvidia leads Mag 7 higher on sign of 'enormous pent-up demand' from China Nvidia (NVDA) led the Big Tech "Magnificent Seven" stocks higher on Tuesday before the market open, climbing 1.4%. The gain came after Reuters reported that the AI chipmaker had ordered 300,000 H20 chips from its contract manufacturer TSMC. "This supports our theory that there is enormous pent-up demand for NVDA chips from China right now," Hedgeye Risk Management analyst Felix Wang wrote in a note to clients. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) rose fractionally ahead of their quarterly earnings reports later this week. Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA) traded down less than 1%. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic data: S&P CoreLogic 20-city home price index (May); Conference Board consumer confidence, July; Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (June); Dallas Fed services activity (July) Earnings: Boeing (BA), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Caesars (CZR), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Merck (MRK), PayPal (PYPL), Procter & Gamble (PG), Spotify (SPOT), Starbucks (SBUX), SoFi (SOFI), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), UPS (UPS), Visa (V) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: The market is finally getting what it wants 35 charts explain markets and the economy right now UnitedHealth stock falls after reporting mixed Q2 earnings Sarepta stock soars as FDA reverses course on gene therapy pause Spotify stock slides after Q2 earnings and revenue miss Trump's DOJ puts companies on notice on tariffs US, EU rush to clinch final details and lock in trade deal Apple to Shutter a Retail Store in China for the First Time Ever Stellantis faces $1.7B hit from US tariffs this year Trending tickers: UPS, Whilepool and Royal Caribbean Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: UPS (UPS) stock fell over 2% before the bell on Tuesday after reporting a drop in second-quarter profit and revenue, as demand took a hit from new "de minimis" tariffs on low-value Chinese shipments and mounting risks from President Donald Trump's trade policies. Whirlpool (WHR) stock fell premarket on Tuesday. after the appliance maker slashed its earnings outlook the day prior. Royal Caribbean (RCL) stock rose 4% before the bell after raising its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, banking on resilient demand for the cruise operator's high-end private island destinations and premium sailings. The market is finally getting what it wants Wall Street's busiest week of the summer is turning out to be an inflection point. Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban explains why in today's Morning Brief: Read more here. Spotify stock sinks after Q2 earnings miss Spotify (SPOT) shares fell as much as 10% in early premarket trading Tuesday after the company missed second quarter earnings and revenue expectations. The results follow a remarkable 120% rally over the past year, as the stock rebounded from 2022 lows on the back of price hikes, cost cuts, and investor enthusiasm for AI and advertising. Spotify hit a record high of $738.45 earlier this month, but shares slid to around $635 immediately following the results. Spotify reported second quarter revenue of €4.19 billion ($4.86 billion), missing analyst expectations of €4.27 billion, though up from €3.81 billion in the same period last year. The company posted an adjusted loss of €0.42 ($0.49) per share, sharply missing forecasts for a profit of €1.97 and down from earnings of €1.33 in Q2 2024. "Outsized currency movements during the quarter impacted reported revenue by €104 million vs. guidance," the company said in the earnings release. Operating income also fell short of expectations in the quarter, though subscriber metrics for both premium and ad-supported tiers came in ahead of estimates. Gross margins of 31.5% came in as expected. Spotify's massive rally heading into the earnings report was fueled by a sweeping business overhaul, including layoffs, leadership changes, and a pullback from costly podcast exclusivity. After spending $1 billion to build out its podcast business, the company has since scaled back and narrowed its focus. Still, it remains committed to the medium, paying over $100 million to creators in Q1 alone, including high-profile names like Joe Rogan and Alex Cooper. Read more here. UnitedHealth stock slips after mixed Q2 results Shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) fell nearly 3% after its quarterly results before the bell painted a mixed picture. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Sarepta stock rockets higher after FDA greenlight Shares in drugmaker Sarepta (SRPT) rocketed up over 30% in premarket after the embattled company got the FDA's go-ahead to resume shipments of its Elevdis gene therapy. The greenlight comes after Sarepta put a voluntary pause on shipments for some patients while the US regulator reviewed its safety following deaths. The FDA on Monday recommended that the compa lift that halt. Sarepta's stock is poised to build on a 16% gain on Monday, continuing a recent volatile spell triggered by changing fortunes for its best-selling product. AP reports: Read more here. Nvidia orders 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC to satiate Chinese demand Reuters reports: Nvidia placed orders for 300,000 H20 chipsets with contract manufacturer TSMC last week, two sources said, with one of them adding that strong Chinese demand had led the U.S. firm to change its mind about just relying on its existing stockpile. Read more here. Oil maintains gains with tariffs and OPEC+ supply in sight Oil maintained gains following Trump putting pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine with economic sanctions against Putin's government on the table. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. P&G dips as it warns of $1 billion tariff hit Procter & Gamble (PG) stock dipped about 1%, reversing a slight premarket gain, as the company took a cautious approach with its financial outlook while it navigates uncertain consumer sentiment and Trump's tariffs. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read the full story here. Procter & Gamble (PG) stock dipped about 1%, reversing a slight premarket gain, as the company took a cautious approach with its financial outlook while it navigates uncertain consumer sentiment and Trump's tariffs. Yahoo Finance's Brian Sozzi reports: Read the full story here. Tech leads stocks higher at the open The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led US stocks higher at the open on Tuesday morning with a 0.5% gain. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.2% on the heels of notching a sixth all-time closing high in a row on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) opened roughly flat. Investors are digesting a wave of earnings reports and US trade data showing a sharp narrowing in the deficit (as tariffs loom). Meanwhile, they are looking ahead to the JOLTS job openings update for June at 10 a.m. ET. for labor market insight. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) led US stocks higher at the open on Tuesday morning with a 0.5% gain. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.2% on the heels of notching a sixth all-time closing high in a row on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) opened roughly flat. Investors are digesting a wave of earnings reports and US trade data showing a sharp narrowing in the deficit (as tariffs loom). Meanwhile, they are looking ahead to the JOLTS job openings update for June at 10 a.m. ET. for labor market insight. Major drugmakers mixed amid earnings Of the notable drugmakers reporting earnings Tuesday, AstraZeneca rose almost 2% and Merck fell nearly 4% before the market open. British drugmaker AstraZeneca reported second quarter revenue ahead of expectations Tuesday, with its cancer drugs helping fuel sales for the period. Meanwhile, fellow pharma giant Merck reported earnings below Wall Street's projections, according to Bloomberg consensus data, and revenue from its HPV vaccine Gardasil was also less than expected amid continued headwinds in China. Investors are also bracing for patents for its drug Keytruda (which accounted for roughly half of its second quarter revenue) to expire in 2028. Also on Tuesday, Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NVO) plummeted roughly 20%. The firm cut its 2025 revenue and profit outlook, pointing to lower than expected sales growth of its obesity drug Wegovy in the US, ahead of its second quarter earnings results slated for Aug. 6. Of the notable drugmakers reporting earnings Tuesday, AstraZeneca rose almost 2% and Merck fell nearly 4% before the market open. British drugmaker AstraZeneca reported second quarter revenue ahead of expectations Tuesday, with its cancer drugs helping fuel sales for the period. Meanwhile, fellow pharma giant Merck reported earnings below Wall Street's projections, according to Bloomberg consensus data, and revenue from its HPV vaccine Gardasil was also less than expected amid continued headwinds in China. Investors are also bracing for patents for its drug Keytruda (which accounted for roughly half of its second quarter revenue) to expire in 2028. Also on Tuesday, Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk (NVO) plummeted roughly 20%. The firm cut its 2025 revenue and profit outlook, pointing to lower than expected sales growth of its obesity drug Wegovy in the US, ahead of its second quarter earnings results slated for Aug. 6. Trump's DOJ puts companies on notice: Don't evade tariffs The Justice Department is putting American companies on notice that they could be prosecuted if they chose to evade President Trump's tariffs, even as the legality of the president's "Liberation Day" duties remain unsettled in US courts. Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. The Justice Department is putting American companies on notice that they could be prosecuted if they chose to evade President Trump's tariffs, even as the legality of the president's "Liberation Day" duties remain unsettled in US courts. Yahoo Finance's Alexis Keenan reports: Read more here. Nvidia leads Mag 7 higher on sign of 'enormous pent-up demand' from China Nvidia (NVDA) led the Big Tech "Magnificent Seven" stocks higher on Tuesday before the market open, climbing 1.4%. The gain came after Reuters reported that the AI chipmaker had ordered 300,000 H20 chips from its contract manufacturer TSMC. "This supports our theory that there is enormous pent-up demand for NVDA chips from China right now," Hedgeye Risk Management analyst Felix Wang wrote in a note to clients. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) rose fractionally ahead of their quarterly earnings reports later this week. Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA) traded down less than 1%. Nvidia (NVDA) led the Big Tech "Magnificent Seven" stocks higher on Tuesday before the market open, climbing 1.4%. The gain came after Reuters reported that the AI chipmaker had ordered 300,000 H20 chips from its contract manufacturer TSMC. "This supports our theory that there is enormous pent-up demand for NVDA chips from China right now," Hedgeye Risk Management analyst Felix Wang wrote in a note to clients. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) rose fractionally ahead of their quarterly earnings reports later this week. Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA) traded down less than 1%. Good morning. Here's what's happening today. Economic data: S&P CoreLogic 20-city home price index (May); Conference Board consumer confidence, July; Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (June); Dallas Fed services activity (July) Earnings: Boeing (BA), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Caesars (CZR), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Merck (MRK), PayPal (PYPL), Procter & Gamble (PG), Spotify (SPOT), Starbucks (SBUX), SoFi (SOFI), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), UPS (UPS), Visa (V) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: The market is finally getting what it wants 35 charts explain markets and the economy right now UnitedHealth stock falls after reporting mixed Q2 earnings Sarepta stock soars as FDA reverses course on gene therapy pause Spotify stock slides after Q2 earnings and revenue miss Trump's DOJ puts companies on notice on tariffs US, EU rush to clinch final details and lock in trade deal Apple to Shutter a Retail Store in China for the First Time Ever Stellantis faces $1.7B hit from US tariffs this year Economic data: S&P CoreLogic 20-city home price index (May); Conference Board consumer confidence, July; Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (June); Dallas Fed services activity (July) Earnings: Boeing (BA), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Caesars (CZR), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Merck (MRK), PayPal (PYPL), Procter & Gamble (PG), Spotify (SPOT), Starbucks (SBUX), SoFi (SOFI), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), UPS (UPS), Visa (V) Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning: The market is finally getting what it wants 35 charts explain markets and the economy right now UnitedHealth stock falls after reporting mixed Q2 earnings Sarepta stock soars as FDA reverses course on gene therapy pause Spotify stock slides after Q2 earnings and revenue miss Trump's DOJ puts companies on notice on tariffs US, EU rush to clinch final details and lock in trade deal Apple to Shutter a Retail Store in China for the First Time Ever Stellantis faces $1.7B hit from US tariffs this year Trending tickers: UPS, Whilepool and Royal Caribbean Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: UPS (UPS) stock fell over 2% before the bell on Tuesday after reporting a drop in second-quarter profit and revenue, as demand took a hit from new "de minimis" tariffs on low-value Chinese shipments and mounting risks from President Donald Trump's trade policies. Whirlpool (WHR) stock fell premarket on Tuesday. after the appliance maker slashed its earnings outlook the day prior. Royal Caribbean (RCL) stock rose 4% before the bell after raising its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, banking on resilient demand for the cruise operator's high-end private island destinations and premium sailings. Here are some top stocks trending on Yahoo Finance in premarket trading: UPS (UPS) stock fell over 2% before the bell on Tuesday after reporting a drop in second-quarter profit and revenue, as demand took a hit from new "de minimis" tariffs on low-value Chinese shipments and mounting risks from President Donald Trump's trade policies. Whirlpool (WHR) stock fell premarket on Tuesday. after the appliance maker slashed its earnings outlook the day prior. Royal Caribbean (RCL) stock rose 4% before the bell after raising its annual profit forecast on Tuesday, banking on resilient demand for the cruise operator's high-end private island destinations and premium sailings. The market is finally getting what it wants Wall Street's busiest week of the summer is turning out to be an inflection point. Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban explains why in today's Morning Brief: Read more here. Wall Street's busiest week of the summer is turning out to be an inflection point. Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban explains why in today's Morning Brief: Read more here. Spotify stock sinks after Q2 earnings miss Spotify (SPOT) shares fell as much as 10% in early premarket trading Tuesday after the company missed second quarter earnings and revenue expectations. The results follow a remarkable 120% rally over the past year, as the stock rebounded from 2022 lows on the back of price hikes, cost cuts, and investor enthusiasm for AI and advertising. Spotify hit a record high of $738.45 earlier this month, but shares slid to around $635 immediately following the results. Spotify reported second quarter revenue of €4.19 billion ($4.86 billion), missing analyst expectations of €4.27 billion, though up from €3.81 billion in the same period last year. The company posted an adjusted loss of €0.42 ($0.49) per share, sharply missing forecasts for a profit of €1.97 and down from earnings of €1.33 in Q2 2024. "Outsized currency movements during the quarter impacted reported revenue by €104 million vs. guidance," the company said in the earnings release. Operating income also fell short of expectations in the quarter, though subscriber metrics for both premium and ad-supported tiers came in ahead of estimates. Gross margins of 31.5% came in as expected. Spotify's massive rally heading into the earnings report was fueled by a sweeping business overhaul, including layoffs, leadership changes, and a pullback from costly podcast exclusivity. After spending $1 billion to build out its podcast business, the company has since scaled back and narrowed its focus. Still, it remains committed to the medium, paying over $100 million to creators in Q1 alone, including high-profile names like Joe Rogan and Alex Cooper. Read more here. Spotify (SPOT) shares fell as much as 10% in early premarket trading Tuesday after the company missed second quarter earnings and revenue expectations. The results follow a remarkable 120% rally over the past year, as the stock rebounded from 2022 lows on the back of price hikes, cost cuts, and investor enthusiasm for AI and advertising. Spotify hit a record high of $738.45 earlier this month, but shares slid to around $635 immediately following the results. Spotify reported second quarter revenue of €4.19 billion ($4.86 billion), missing analyst expectations of €4.27 billion, though up from €3.81 billion in the same period last year. The company posted an adjusted loss of €0.42 ($0.49) per share, sharply missing forecasts for a profit of €1.97 and down from earnings of €1.33 in Q2 2024. "Outsized currency movements during the quarter impacted reported revenue by €104 million vs. guidance," the company said in the earnings release. Operating income also fell short of expectations in the quarter, though subscriber metrics for both premium and ad-supported tiers came in ahead of estimates. Gross margins of 31.5% came in as expected. Spotify's massive rally heading into the earnings report was fueled by a sweeping business overhaul, including layoffs, leadership changes, and a pullback from costly podcast exclusivity. After spending $1 billion to build out its podcast business, the company has since scaled back and narrowed its focus. Still, it remains committed to the medium, paying over $100 million to creators in Q1 alone, including high-profile names like Joe Rogan and Alex Cooper. Read more here. UnitedHealth stock slips after mixed Q2 results Shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) fell nearly 3% after its quarterly results before the bell painted a mixed picture. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) fell nearly 3% after its quarterly results before the bell painted a mixed picture. Yahoo Finance's Anjalee Khemlani reports: Read more here. Sarepta stock rockets higher after FDA greenlight Shares in drugmaker Sarepta (SRPT) rocketed up over 30% in premarket after the embattled company got the FDA's go-ahead to resume shipments of its Elevdis gene therapy. The greenlight comes after Sarepta put a voluntary pause on shipments for some patients while the US regulator reviewed its safety following deaths. The FDA on Monday recommended that the compa lift that halt. Sarepta's stock is poised to build on a 16% gain on Monday, continuing a recent volatile spell triggered by changing fortunes for its best-selling product. AP reports: Read more here. Shares in drugmaker Sarepta (SRPT) rocketed up over 30% in premarket after the embattled company got the FDA's go-ahead to resume shipments of its Elevdis gene therapy. The greenlight comes after Sarepta put a voluntary pause on shipments for some patients while the US regulator reviewed its safety following deaths. The FDA on Monday recommended that the compa lift that halt. Sarepta's stock is poised to build on a 16% gain on Monday, continuing a recent volatile spell triggered by changing fortunes for its best-selling product. AP reports: Read more here. Nvidia orders 300,000 H20 chips from TSMC to satiate Chinese demand Reuters reports: Nvidia placed orders for 300,000 H20 chipsets with contract manufacturer TSMC last week, two sources said, with one of them adding that strong Chinese demand had led the U.S. firm to change its mind about just relying on its existing stockpile. Read more here. Reuters reports: Nvidia placed orders for 300,000 H20 chipsets with contract manufacturer TSMC last week, two sources said, with one of them adding that strong Chinese demand had led the U.S. firm to change its mind about just relying on its existing stockpile. Read more here. Oil maintains gains with tariffs and OPEC+ supply in sight Oil maintained gains following Trump putting pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine with economic sanctions against Putin's government on the table. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Oil maintained gains following Trump putting pressure on Russia over the war in Ukraine with economic sanctions against Putin's government on the table. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
The Hill
17 minutes ago
- The Hill
IMF upgrades outlook for global economy, citing less-than-expected damage from Trump's trade wars
WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund is upgrading the economic outlook for the United States and the world this year and next because President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies have so far proven less damaging than expected. The IMF now forecasts 3% growth for the global economy this year. That is down from 3.3% in 2024 but an improvement on the 2.8% it had forecast for 2025 back in April. The 191-country lender, which works to promote growth, stabilize the world financial system and reduce poverty, expects world growth to come in at 3.1% next year, up a tick from the 3% it had forecast three months ago. Trump's decision on April 2 – 'Liberation Day,'' the president called it — to impose taxes of 10% or more on U.S. imports from most of the world's countries had been expected to be a bigger drag on global growth. But the damage was limited, the IMF said, partly because many U.S. importers scrambled to bring in foreign goods before Trump's tariffs took effect and partly because Trump ended up suspending his biggest levies (including a 145% duty on Chinese goods). 'This modest decline in trade tensions, however fragile, has contributed to the resilience of the global economy so far,' IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a press conference Tuesday. 'This resilience is welcome, but it is also tenuous. While the trade shock could turn out to be less severe than initially feared, it is still sizeable, and evidence is mounting that it is hurting the global economy.' Tariffs raised $108 billion for the U.S. Treasury from October through June, nearly double the $55.6 billion they brought during the same period of the previous fiscal year. Global growth of around 3% is below pre-pandemic average and the world economy would be growing faster without Trump's trade wars. The IMF modestly upped its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 1.9% this year and 2% in 2026 when the big tax cuts Trump signed into law July 4 are expected to provide 'a near-term boost.'' The Chinese economy, the world's second biggest, is expected to grow 4.8% this year, a hefty upgrade from the 4% the IMF had forecast in April. China is getting a boost from lower-than-expected U.S. tariffs and from government spending. The 20 economies that share the euro currency are collectively expected to expand 1%, up from the 0.8% the IMF had forecast in April. But a big chunk of that growth is coming from a surge of pharmaceutical exports from Ireland, which were timed to beat Trump's expected tariffs on drugs. Japan remains in a slow-growth rut and is expected to eke an expansion of just 0.7% this year and 0.5% next. India is once again expected to be the world's fastest-growing major economy, expanding a forecast 6.4% this year and next. Trump has pressured Japan and the European Union to accept 15% U.S. tariffs on their exports. Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines also agreed to accept stiff U.S. tariffs. More such deals are expected before Friday when Trump will slap even higher tariffs on countries that don't agree make concessions. Trump's protectionism is buffeting global commerce. The IMF upgraded its forecast for growth in world trade, measured by volume, to 2.6% this year. That is up from the 1.7% it had predicted in April and reflects a surge in shipments as exporters tried to beat the tariff crunch. But eventually the higher U.S. levies are expected to take a toll. The IMF sees trade growing just 1.9% next year, down from the 2.5% it had forecast in April. Trump has also unsettled financial markets by openly and repeatedly criticizing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for the Fed's reluctance to cut American interest rates. Powell has said that the central bank must wait to better understands the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation. That same message was delivered last week by the European Central Bank, which is also holding off on rate calls to measure the impact of Trump's tariffs. At the press conference Tuesday, IMF chief economist Gourinchas spoke up in favor of keeping central banks like the Fed independent from political pressure. 'The evidence is overwhelming that independent central banks, with a narrow mandate to pursue price and economic stability, are essential' to containing inflationary pressure, he said. The Fed and other central banks raised rates after inflation flared up in 2021 and 2022. They managed a so-called soft landing — bringing inflation down without causing a recession. 'That central banks around the world achieved a successful 'soft landing' despite the recent surge in inflation owes a great deal to their independence and hard-earned credibility,' Gourinchas said.
