11 million US visa backlog crushes Indian H-1B, green card dreams: Decoded

Business Standard

14-07-2025

The United States is now sitting on an immigration backlog of 11.3 million pending cases—its highest ever—following a surge of 1.6 million cases in the second quarter of financial year 2025, covering January to March. This is the first major dataset published since Donald Trump returned to office, and comes from the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) portal.
USCIS processed just 2.7 million cases during the quarter, down from 3.3 million during the same period last year. Compared to the previous quarter alone, completions fell by 12 per cent.
One of the more striking developments is the return of a 'frontlog' — over 34,000 cases were waiting to be opened or assigned, a scenario not seen in more than a year.
Key forms are taking longer than ever
Form I-129 (used for H-1B and L-1 employment-based visas): Median processing time jumped 25 per cent from the previous quarter, and 80 per cent year-on-year.
Form I-90 (green card replacements): Wait time surged from 0.8 months to over 8 months within one quarter, marking a 938 per cent increase.
Form I-765 (work permits): Pending initial applications rose 87 per cent. Total pending forms—across renewals and reissues—now exceed 2 million, up from 1.2 million.
Net backlog for I-765s (cases outside processing norms): Up by nearly 181 per cent.
There was some movement in the other direction for Form I-129s, which saw a 75 per cent drop in net backlog from the previous quarter. However, applications under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme declined by over 8,000.
What this means for employers and foreign workers
For foreign nationals on temporary work visas and their employers, the delays are already making daily operations uncertain.
'In some cases, candidates may not be authorised to enter the US or start work when anticipated. For employees currently maintaining status, adjudication delays may lead to a lapse in work authorisation or an inability to travel internationally,' Blake Miller, partner at Fragomen, a US-based immigration law firm told Business Standard. 'Ultimately, delayed processing causes uncertainty for employers around their workforce and for visa holders' ongoing employment and lawful immigration status.'
Charles Kuck, founding partner at Kuck Baxter in Atlanta, put it bluntly: 'In simple words, people cannot start their jobs, companies cannot begin projects and growth, and visa holders cannot relocate.'
'It's all intentional,' he told Business Standard.
Michael Wildes, managing partner at WILDES & WEINBERG PC, said delays now affect both first-time petitions and extensions. 'Backlogs can significantly delay approvals for both initial petitions and extensions, creating uncertainty for employers and foreign workers alike.'
Indian green card applicants could face even longer waits
For Indian nationals, the situation is compounded by the existing per-country limits for green cards. In FY2023, about 73 per cent of approved H-1Bs (new and continuing) were to Indian-born workers. Approximately 78,070 received lawful permanent residence (a green card).
'Indian green card applicants, already facing long wait times due to per-country limits, may see even further delays in adjudication of adjustment of status or consular interviews. These delays can affect work authorisation renewals and create added stress for families waiting to reunite,' Wildes told Business Standard.
Miller pointed out that those already in the US on other visas such as the H-1B might not feel the pinch immediately. 'In many cases, delays in green card adjudications—whether through adjustment of status or consular processing—do not immediately affect individuals who hold another form of US immigration status or work authorisation.'
Kuck noted that consular processing is slowing dramatically, adding, 'The data reflects a troubling slowdown in processing that undermines predictability and transparency in the immigration system.'
Blame on staff cuts, enforcement shift, and new policies
'The Trump administration has told USCIS to slow down processing of cases,' Kuck said. 'Predictably, the system has quickly developed massive backlogs. By the end of 2028, we will pine for the days of a functioning legal immigration system because it will effectively not exist by the end of the Trump term.'
He attributed the growing backlog to a mix of policy choices: 'Starting with the staff reductions ordered at the USCIS (which is funded by user fees, not tax dollars), followed by seeking 'volunteers' from USCIS to assist ICE in enforcement efforts, which then leads to the administration's effort to find fraud in every application, slowing down processing times.'
'There is zero per cent chance that processing times will speed up at any time under this administration,' Kuck said.
Workarounds and suggestions for Indian applicants
Some applicants are choosing to pay extra for premium processing, where available. 'Some employers may choose to use premium processing, when available, to help ensure timely adjudication of petitions,' said Miller.
However, that may not be enough. 'Unless there is a meaningful increase in staffing, technological efficiency, or congressional support, delays are likely to persist,' said Wildes.
He added, 'The backlog is largely driven by a combination of insufficient staffing, outdated processing systems, and inconsistent policy shifts that strain agency resources. Budgetary constraints and rising application volumes compound the problem.'
For those still planning to apply for work, study or family-based immigration, Wildes suggested exploring more than one pathway: 'For those with flexibility, exploring multiple pathways—including consular routes or alternate visa categories—can help mitigate risk.'
Kuck had a more candid list of dos and don'ts for Indian applicants:
• Get a good, experienced lawyer who will tell you the truth
• Listen to your lawyer
• Be prepared for long delays at USCIS and the consulate
• Always bring a lawyer with you to interviews