'Radical reset' of housing policy needed as targets to be missed by 10,000 AGAIN
Housing targets will be missed by up to 10,000 units again this year and will fall short for the next several years, Extra.ie can reveal.
Officials in the Department of Housing have warned Minister James Browne that the number of new homes built this year is likely to fall 'somewhere in the low 30,000s', compared to a target of 41,000.
Internal briefing documents prepared for the Housing Minister, obtained by Extra.ie under Freedom of Information legislation, also raised concerns over the construction of desperately needed homes into the future.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael were accused of having 'misled' voters in the run up to last November's election, when they claimed 40,000 homes would be built last year but only 30,300 were delivered. 18/02/2025 Dublin Ireland. Fianna Fail Minister for Housing James Browne talking to the media on his way into today's cabinet meeting at Government Buildings. Photo: Sasko Lazarov/© RollingNews.ie
In a statement to Extra, Mr Browne admitted this year's output will fall far short of target.
He said it was 'difficult to see a pathway off the lower than expected base from 2024'.
The Fianna Fáil TD insisted he is 'interrogating every area' that is delaying delivery of housing and 'demanding faster outcomes as soon as possible'.
Ahead of the last election, the Government revised its housing targets upwards to account for Ireland's soaring population.
Over the course of this Government's lifetime, the aim is to build 303,000 new homes – starting at 41,000 this year and ramping up to 60,000 by 2030.
But there is already open admission within Government that their targets for 41,000 new homes this year and 43,000 next year will be widely missed, as the upward momentum in housing has evaporated.
The documents prepared for the minister highlight the 'almost complete retrenchment of private international capital since 2022' as a 'significant factor' that will affect the delivery of housing in the coming years. Housing Development: Pic: Getty Images
Institutional investors play a central role in the development of apartments and the 80% reduction in international capital since 2022 has led to a sizeable reduction in supply.
The officials highlight that the pipeline for new apartments is slowing, with a 39% dip in planning permissions in 2024 'reflecting a general downward trend from the peak in 2020 and 2021'.
This is already being felt in apartment completions which equated to 29% of all home completions in 2024, a drop of 7% from the previous year.
The officials wrote: 'Delivery of apartments will be potentially constrained in coming years given the fall in institutional investment since mid-2022, and its slow return to date.'
This depleted pipeline has placed the Government's housing targets beyond 2026 at risk, officials warned.
They stated: 'The decline in overall approvals, as well as apartment approvals, has implications in the longer term for the delivery of Government's revised housing targets, with approvals falling short of the quantum needed to hit targets in 2026 and subsequent years.'
Mr Browne said recently that he felt the Economic Social and Research Institute's prediction that 34,000 new homes would be built this year and 37,000 next year is probably broadly accurate. The internal documents prepared for Mr Browne by his officials in April state that an output in the low 30,000s this year is likely.
They wrote: 'Published forecasts project between 32,000 and 35,000 new homes will be completed in 2025 – the forecasts will fluctuate as the year progresses, but somewhere in the low 30,000 range seems most realistic at this stage factoring in early feedback from the construction sector.' Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage James Browne TD speaking to the media in the Government Press Center following today's Cabinet meeting, Dublin. Photo: Sam Boal/Collins Photos
The officials noted that while 'the emerging consensus from published forecasts' at the start of 2025 is between 32,000 and 35,000 new homes this year 'all forecasts should be treated with considerable caution at this stage'.
They stated: 'A degree of circumspection is advised as a more conservative projection of 30,000, give or take, is mooted by stakeholders closer to residential construction sector.'
Mr Browne said: 'I am seeing many of the same forecasts as are publicly available and most of them have the same trajectory for the year, which is in the low 30s, which seems realistic at this stage in the year – it would be difficult to see a pathway off the lower than expected base from 2024.'
He said that he is 'interrogating every area' that is delaying delivery of housing and 'demanding faster outcomes as soon as possible'.
Mr Browne added: 'I've been pulling together what's needed to boost delivery, including a revised National Planning Framework which will help increase our capacity and accelerate home building. The Housing Activation Office will hone in on the ground to address barriers impacting housing development.
'The buttons I press now may not feel like they have immediate impact but what I do now will impact home building for years and we have to get it right. I'm serious about that. Sorting out planning can be laboured – it is a rules-based process for many good reasons. That doesn't mean we aren't tackling it to speed it up.
'Measures to help scale-up delivery are being considered in the context of the next housing plan.'
The officials pointed to planning permissions for 49,212 units that have not commenced in Dublin as one potential solution over the medium term. Of those, 7,272 are on sites where construction had started while 5,875 are being held up as they are the subject of a judicial review.
Last week, Mr Browne announced plans to allow for the extension of planning permissions for developments that are set to expire and have not yet commenced.
The permissions can be extended for up to three years. The proposals will also allow planning permissions subjected to or going through a judicial review to apply for a retrospective suspension of the permission for the duration of the judicial review. Pic: Sam Boal/Collins Photos
Sinn Féin's housing spokesman Eoin Ó Broin told Extra: 'The ESRI and Central Bank, in their recent presentation to the Oireachtas Housing Committee, said that without a significant change in policy and investment, the new Programme for Government targets can not be met.
'All of the indicators are going in the wrong direction.
'Only a radical reset of housing policy, as recommended by the Housing Commission and Sinn Féin can start to undo the damage of years of bad Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael housing policy.'
Mr Browne is set to unveil his new housing plan next month, prior to the Dáil's summer recess. Viability is a core challenge facing the sector, particularly in relation to apartments, with the Department of Finance in the process examining proposals to tackle funding challenges.
It is expected that changes to apartment regulations will be made in an attempt to reduce the cost of building. The documents highlight the surge in the price of materials, which are now 33% higher than in January 2021.
Officials wrote: 'Input cost inflation quickened for the second month running and was the steepest for almost two years.'
The CSO's Wholesale Price Index for building and construction materials shows material input costs continue to rise.
The Government has also been deciding on whether to retain, replace or amend the Rent Pressure Zones, which limit annual rent increases to 2%. It appears removing the 2% cap is now the plan.
RPZs have been highlighted as a barrier to investment by institutional investors. Uisce Éireann has also warned that it will need an additional €2billion to connect new homes to the supply if it is to keep pace with increased housing targets.
The housing officials pointed to issues in water and energy connections as one reason for the shortfall in completions last year as well as the Government's incentivising of commencing new developments.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Irish Examiner
40 minutes ago
- Irish Examiner
Legislation to update child sex abuse material terminology should be a 'no-brainer', says senator
Legislation to change terminology around the portrayal of child sex abuse material online will come before the Seanad this week. The Child Trafficking and Child Sexual Exploitation Material (Amendment) Bill 2022 will be voted on at third stage in the Seanad on Wednesday. It seeks to replace the term "child pornography" in legislation including the Child Trafficking and Pornography Act 1998 and the Child Trafficking and Pornography (Amendment) Act 2004. One of the sponsors of the bill, senator Eileen Flynn, said the legislation should be a 'no-brainer for the Government', adding that bringing it in will not cost money and will 'have a dramatic impact on the victims, the children". Ms Flynn says the use of the term 'child pornography' implies that consent has been given, which a child is not in a position to give, she said. Reflective of reality She said the term 'child sexual abuse material' is more reflective of the reality, and she believes that Irish law should echo that. She also pointed to the Luxembourg guidelines, accepted by a group of 18 organisations including the UN, which advocate that nations should replace 'child pornography' with 'child sexual abuse material'. Mecpaths, an organisation which works to raise awareness of child trafficking in Ireland, has been supportive of the bill since its introduction three years ago. The organisation's networks and communications manager, JP O'Sullivan, said: 'The recognition of images of child sexual abuse for what they are is a significant step in acknowledging the harm, the abuse, and the exploitation of children. "A child can never consent to their own exploitation, so a change in the terminology is crucial for the State in recognising this. We commend the senator for her efforts, and call on the support of all professionals working with vulnerable children to lend their support to this change."
Irish Examiner
2 hours ago
- Irish Examiner
Rental sector changes will encourage landlords to evict tenants, Focus Ireland warns
Proposed changes to the rental sector will incentivise landlords to evict tenants and increase rents, the head of homeless organisation Focus Ireland has warned. Housing minister James Browne will bring his proposals for an overhaul of the Rent Pressure Zone (RPZ) system to a meeting of coalition leaders on Monday night and a memo to Cabinet on Tuesday. The moves are part of an overall plan to attract international investment and kickstart the building of apartments, as well as overhaul the RPZ system, which was introduced in 2016 and sharply criticised by last year's report from the Housing Commission. However, issuing a stern warning, Focus Ireland's Mike Allen said the measures will make renters even more vulnerable. "By creating a multi-tier rental system, you're creating an awful lot of complexity, which means that intrinsically, that creates vulnerability for people who are less able to negotiate those difficulties. But you also create incentives for landlords to evict people so they have a vacancy, and then they can re-rent at a higher rent," Mr Allen said. Under the plans, the 2% cap in RPZs will remain in place for existing tenancies, but new tenancies will be more closely linked to the base rate of inflation. Landlords will be able to change or reset rents between tenancies, a change from the current system, which designates whether or not a home is in a rent pressure zone. Mr Allen said this "is a Government policy to increase rents" adding that "the reason they want to increase the rents is so that private investors will get a higher return on their money and will invest". "But it also means that if that's the only way we can provide the housing, it's no way a solution to average workers, let alone low-income people." His comments came as a number of trade unions and organisations came together ahead of a Raise the Roof rally outside Leinster House next week, calling for urgent government action on Ireland's housing and homelessness crisis, with a separate protest being organised in Cork later in the month. The Dublin rally is timed to coincide with a private members motion tabled by opposition parties in the Dáil, and will feature speakers from political parties, alongside a series of singers and spoken word performances, including folk singer Lisa O'Neill, punk singer Meryl Streek, writer and artist Veronica Dyas, folk singers Jimi Cullen and Cork campaigner Martin Leahy. The motion calls for emergency action on the housing and homelessness crisis, including increased investment in public housing, action to protect private renters, and a re-introduction of the ban on no-fault evictions. The Raise the Roof campaign group is co-ordinated by the Irish Congress of Trade Unions and includes trade unions, housing and homeless agencies, women's groups, human rights advocacy groups, and community organisations. Speaking at a press conference to launch the rally, SIPTU deputy general secretary Ethel Buckley said: 'In the last 10 years, rents and house prices have doubled — and in some areas more than doubled — while wages have increased by less than 40%. If anything, this gap has widened in the last couple of years. Rents and house prices are out of control. 'Alongside the human cost of this, we are seeing the serious knock-on effects, with thousands of unfilled vacancies in key sectors, and young people once again choosing to emigrate. 'We are deeply concerned at the lack of urgency shown so far by this new government. A government that is content to play the role of helpless bystander to this ever-worsening emergency. What is needed now is a radical reset with sustained action to deliver secure, affordable housing.' Read More Government must introduce new support models to take people out of homelessness, charity warns
Extra.ie
5 hours ago
- Extra.ie
Plan to lift 2% pressure zones rent cap is a blow to tenants
The Government is planning to remove the 2% rental increase cap in Rent Pressure Zones and allow accommodation costs to increase in line with inflation. The move is likely to see landlords increase rents to what the market can stand, leaving many renters unable to save for a deposit to buy their own property. However, Justice Minister Jim O'Callaghan told RTÉ: 'If we do nothing, the Rent Pressure Zone legislation is going to expire at the end of December this year, so something has to be done and obviously we've also got to stimulate private sector investment because this is an issue that requires decision by Government.' The new proposals are due before Cabinet tomorrow. Justice Minister Jim O'Callaghan. Pic: Leah Farrell/ He was responding to comments made by Mark McCaffrey of the homelessness charity Threshold who said: 'This [proposal] will push people into homelessness.' The minister, in response, said: 'I can't comment on the memo that's going to Government. I haven't seen it. 'I would have thought from my knowledge of Cabinet colleagues and what's in the Programme for Government that renters will be central to the decisions that are to be made on this by Government.' It is understood a range of measures will be agreed by the Government, aimed at giving financially stretched renters a minimum level of occupier security. The new measures will result in a package for existing renters that will amount to no change if they stay in their current tenancy, it is believed. However, when a property has a new tenant, a landlord can reset the rent at the current market rate but increases after that would be capped at the existing 2% rate. It is understood a range of measures will be agreed by the Government, aimed at giving financially stretched renters a minimum level of occupier security. Pic: Shutterstock There will also be protections for new renters under legislation expected in the coming weeks, it is understood. It will provide security of tenure for a minimum of six years and the landlord can then reset the rent to the market rate. It is being viewed as the ending of no-fault evictions for the first time in the State. However, Social Democrats' housing spokesman Rory Hearne said: 'Removing the 2% rent cap means throwing 'generation rent' to vulture fund landlords to pay for Government housing failures. 'This Government is caving to corporate landlord lobbyists and choosing to throw renters to the wolves.'
