The Bull Market for Economists Is Over. It's an Ominous Sign for the Economy.

New York Times

4 days ago

The moment it dawned on Thomas Fullagar that his job search was not going well came in April, about six months into the process, when he applied for a position in Manhattan, Kan.
The job, at a technology company called CivicPlus, involved relatively straightforward data analysis that he wouldn't strain to do. In fact, he had done much more complicated work while completing his Ph.D. in economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Further improving his odds, he had grown up in Manhattan, the home of Kansas State University, and his mother knew someone at the company, who helped fast-track his application.
Yet despite his connections and credentials, he did not get the job. He didn't even get a second interview. 'It was in Manhattan, Kansas — who the heck is applying for this?' Dr. Fullagar, 33, wondered. 'That one was really baffling.'
For decades, earning a Ph.D. in economics has been a nearly foolproof path to a lucrative career. Even as bearers of advanced degrees in history, English or anthropology struggled to find gainful employment, the popularity of economics as an undergraduate major created plenty of tenure-track teaching positions, while government agencies snatched up Ph.D. economists in bulk. Those looking for even larger paychecks could turn to tech companies, Wall Street and consulting firms, which bid up the price of economists as if they were a bespoke cryptocurrency.
Last year, the average base salary for newly hired economics professors at major research universities was more than $150,000, according to the American Economic Association, and their compensation swelled to about $200,000 once bonuses and summer teaching were included. As recently as the 2023-24 academic year, the employment rate for Ph.D. economists within a few months of graduation was 100 percent, said John Cawley, the chair of the association's Committee on the Job Market, citing the group's surveys. Job satisfaction topped 85 percent.
Those glory days seem to be ending. Universities and nonprofits have scaled back hiring amid declining state budgets and federal funding cuts. At the same time, the Trump administration has laid off government economists and frozen hiring for new ones.
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