What's Happening With MDB Stock?

Forbes

5 days ago

UKRAINE - 2021/04/29: In this photo illustration, a MongoDB logo seen displayed on a smartphone and ... More a pc screen. (Photo Illustration by Pavlo Gonchar/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB), a prominent database management firm, recently reported impressive Q1 results that greatly surpassed analyst predictions. The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.00 per share on revenue of $549 million, easily exceeding consensus forecasts of $0.66 per share and $528 million, respectively. This robust performance resulted in a 15% increase in MDB stock during after-hours trading. Now, investors looking for stable returns may want to consider diversified investment alternatives such as the Trefis High Quality portfolio, which has showcased impressive performance, yielding over 91% returns since its inception. Separately, see – RGTI Stock: What's Next After An 1,100% Rally?
Given MDB's recent stock increase and inherent volatility, you may be questioning whether it remains a sound investment. Despite trading at elevated valuations, we believe MongoDB still has potential for growth. Currently priced at approximately $230 per share, the stock is trading at 8.8x trailing revenues and 55x trailing adjusted earnings. Although these multiples seem high, they are significantly lower than its three-year average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 12.2x and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 143x.
MongoDB commands these high valuation multiples due to its remarkable financial performance and strong market presence. The company has consistently increased its revenues at an average annual rate exceeding 30% over the past three years. Even though it currently reports GAAP losses, it has a robust adjusted net income margin of 16%. The adjusted net income excludes non-cash items such as stock-based compensation and one-time expenses like acquisition-related costs. Moreover, MongoDB maintains a solid balance sheet, with debt comprising only 0.2% of equity and a high cash-to-total-assets ratio of 68%.
MongoDB's Q1 results exhibited solid growth across essential metrics. Overall sales rose by 22% year-over-year, primarily driven by a 26% increase in Atlas revenues, which reached approximately $395 million. The company also experienced significant enhancements in margins, with its reported operating margin improving from -22% in the prior-year quarter to -10% in Q1. Likewise, the adjusted operating margin soared by 900 basis points to 16% over the same period. As a result, MongoDB's net profitability received a significant boost, with adjusted earnings of $1.00 per share, representing a 96% increase from $0.51 in the same quarter of the previous year.
Looking forward, MongoDB anticipates Q2 revenue to fall within the range of $548 million to $553 million and adjusted earnings per share between $0.62 and $0.66. These projections are optimistic, surpassing consensus estimates of $549.3 million in revenue and $0.58 in adjusted EPS.
MongoDB is strategically situated to take advantage of the artificial intelligence boom through its Atlas Vector Search features. This has established the company as a leading vector database for AI applications. MongoDB has actively broadened its AI Applications Program through new partnerships with prominent AI and technology firms. Additionally, the introduction of cost-reducing vector quantization features, which sustain performance, is anticipated to further propel MongoDB's growth in the dynamic AI landscape. On a separate note, check out – Is CRWD Stock Overvalued At $460?
While MDB stock's valuation appears high but defensible, investors should thoroughly evaluate potential risks. MongoDB has historically shown greater vulnerability to economic downturns compared to the broader market. For example, during the 2022 inflation shock, the stock dropped by 76% from its peak, considerably underperforming the S&P 500's 25% decline. Similarly, during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic correction, MDB decreased by 45% against a 34% decline for the S&P 500. This trend indicates that MDB stock is more exposed to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions. See – Buy or Sell MDB Stock – for more in-depth information.
Moreover, there are concerns regarding a potential slowdown in sales growth. Consensus forecasts predict the company's overall sales to increase at a mid-teens average rate over the next few years, a marked deceleration from its impressive 30% average growth rate of the past three years. Consequently, while MongoDB stock may continue to be attractive, investors should carefully evaluate these risks against its strong growth potential and strategic positioning.
While you may be inclined to purchase MDB after a strong Q1, investing in a single stock, regardless of its promise, carries risks. If you wish to spread that risk while exposing yourself to substantial upside, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks have delivered better returns with less risk compared to the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster experience, as evidenced in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.