IN FOCUS: How has Prabowo fared after 6 months as Indonesia's president?

CNA

21-04-2025

Asia
Prabowo Subianto asked early in his presidency for six months' time before judging his performance. Half a year on, observers give their take on how the Indonesian president has fared domestically and on the global stage.
JAKARTA: Juggling multiple roles as an employee, mother, wife, and daughter leaves 41-year-old Widya with barely enough time to prepare proper meals for her two children to eat at school.
However, things have changed since January when her 16-year-old daughter started to get free meals at her public school in West Jakarta.
Two months later, Widya's 10-year-old son also became a recipient of the nutritious free meal programme , Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's flagship scheme to fight malnutrition and stunting.
Widya, a customer service officer at an energy supply chain company, has noticed positive impacts from the programme.
Her daughter is now more fond of eating vegetables since they are provided daily in different menus. Widya's mornings are also less hectic, as she now spends less time in the kitchen.
'The free nutritious meal is good for children because they can eat healthy and nutritious food,' said Widya, who wants to be known only by her first name.
'It also helps the parents save money to spend on food.'
Prabowo, who came into power on Oct 20 last year, campaigned heavily for the nutritious free meal programme when he ran for president and insisted it should reach 82.9 million people out of the country's 280 million population. These include students, pregnant women and poor families.
The aim is for them to grow healthy and productive so Indonesia can become an advanced country by its centennial in 2045 - a term known mainly as Golden Indonesia.
Launched on Jan 6 this year, the populist programme has won the hearts of many, as reflected in Prabowo's high approval rating in his first 100 days. Students eat meals from the free nutritious meal programme at a school in Jakarta on Jan 6, 2025. (Photo: Reuters/Willy Kurniawan)
A survey conducted by the research unit of daily newspaper Kompas showed almost 81 per cent of its 1,000 respondents were satisfied with Prabowo's performance in the first three months, attributing it to an early delivery on his campaign pledge.
Another survey by polling firm LSI also found a similar approving rating of 81 per cent.
However, not everyone is happy with Prabowo's administration, whose ruling coalition holds about 70 per cent of the seats in the parliament.
In late January, the government ordered a 256 trillion rupiah (US$15.76 billion) budget cut for ministries and state agencies, primarily to reallocate funds toward Prabowo's flagship initiatives such as the US$28 billion free meal programme.
The broad budget cuts triggered nationwide Dark Indonesia protests - led mostly by students - less than four months into Prabowo's term.
Another move by Prabowo to allow a bigger role for the military in government with the passing of a controversial military Bill also sparked anger among segments of the population.
Prabowo is now also grappling with a likely economic slowdown in light of global uncertainties from United States President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs.
That could affect Prabowo's pledge to increase Indonesia's annual economic growth to 8 per cent during his term from the usual 5 per cent.
On the foreign policy front, Prabowo has taken an active role in a departure from his predecessor Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo, visiting more than 10 countries after he was sworn in.
Prabowo has said early in his presidency to give him six months to work before judging his performance, given his large Cabinet and ambitious agenda.
Since the Kompas and LSI surveys marking his 100 days in office, there have been no further notable opinion polls on his approval ratings.
So how has Prabowo fared domestically and on the international stage since he came into office six months ago? CNA takes a closer look.
Prabowo came into office with the backing of most big political parties, which together form the Advance Indonesia Coalition, often locally referred to as KIM Plus.
A notable absentee from KIM Plus is the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which has the most seats in parliament and is led by former president Megawati Soekarnoputri .
Prabowo has on multiple occasions admitted that his presidential victory was due to the influence of Jokowi , whose eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka ran as vice- president with Prabowo.
At the start of his presidency, Prabowo named a Red and White Cabinet comprising 48 ministers, 56 vice-ministers and five minister-level senior officials, making it Indonesia's biggest Cabinet in decades. New Indonesian ministers salute during their inauguration at the Presidential Palace in Jakarta, Indonesia on October 21, 2024. (Photo: Reuters/Willy Kurniawan)
Analysts believe this is to accommodate the different parties supporting Prabowo.
But the president himself has said the large size of the Cabinet is needed to help him realise his goals, such as helping the economy grow by 8 per cent yearly and turning Indonesia into a developed country in 20 years.
Prabowo's political grip was further strengthened at the end of November when his allies secured the most seats as regional heads in the country's local elections .
Jokowi's influence was still notable as he had endorsed several prominent regional figures in the local polls.
But by the start of 2025, the shadow of Jokowi over the Prabowo administration started to diminish, analysts told CNA.
They pointed to several signs of this.
The first was Prabowo's rollout of the free lunch programme in January, which signalled that he had complete power over his government.
The second, said political analyst Nicky Fahrizal of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank, was Prabowo's first Cabinet change at the end of February.
The move also showed that Prabowo has no room for underperforming ministers, said Nicky.
However, Nicky said Prabowo's strong political backing does not mean the government is stable.
The recent budget cuts to sustain the free meal programme have resulted in drastic changes in the lives of the average person, Nicky added.
Some civil servants have had to work with limited electricity to save costs, and funding for research at some state universities have been cut, among others.
This has triggered the nationwide Dark Indonesia protests . University students take part in an anti-government protest called 'Indonesia Gelap' (Dark Indonesia) near the presidential palace in Jakarta on Feb 20, 2025. (Photo: Reuters/Willy Kurniawan)
Nicky also said that the large coalition means Prabowo has to accommodate the needs of many parties in his coalition, which do not necessarily share the same ideology.
Political analyst Aditya Perdana from the University of Indonesia said the coalition was formed in a transactional manner, where party leaders were given ministerial positions in return for their support.
This means that the solidarity of the Cabinet also depends on whether political parties are satisfied with the power they receive.
A big question that has lingered since the start of Prabowo's presidency is the stance of PDI-P, which was the biggest winner in last year's legislative election and so holds the most seats in parliament, with about 19 per cent of the 580 seats.
Prabowo had not met its leader Megawati since the end of 2023 when campaigning for the presidential election started, triggering speculation on how their relationship would evolve and affect the government.
On Apr 7, the two finally met again at Megawati's residence in Jakarta and held private talks for 1.5 hours.
'This is a symbolic move to show that Prabowo still wants to embrace every political elite - apart from former presidents Jokowi and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono,' said Nicky, pointing out that it was Prabowo who visited Megawati.
'Megawati was the only (living) former president whose backing he still does not have, and it now further triggers the question: Will PDI-P join the government?' Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto held a private meeting with PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri at her home in Central Jakarta on Apr 7, 2025. (Photo: X/bang_dasco)
PDI-P is expected to hold its national congress some time this year, where it will clarify its stance on whether to join the government, in addition to electing a chairperson, which will likely remain Megawati.
Aditya from the University of Indonesia said that if PDI-P joins KIM Plus, Prabowo's coalition may not necessarily be more solid, as he would need to accommodate more demands from another powerful partner.
Meanwhile, if PDI-P decides to remain outside of the government, this could trigger some other remaining parties, such as the fourth largest party in parliament Nasdem which also has not joined KIM Plus, to join the opposition group.
'I think PDI-P is a game changer,' said Aditya.
'But if PDI-P joins the coalition, the checks and balances on the government will be even less.'
Nevertheless, despite recent protests against the government's austerity measures and the passing of a revised military law, Prabowo is still politically powerful and popular, said Aditya.
He attributed this to ongoing populist programmes, such as health and education subsidies for the poor.
Aditya said the biggest political risk to Prabowo is the country's economic situation.
'If the economy is not growing and remains stagnant until the end of the year, and the government has no money to improve people's livelihood, there may be more protests.'
Compared to his predecessor Jokowi, Prabowo has been more active on the foreign affairs front, even in his early days as president.
Analysts attributed this to their different backgrounds.
Prabowo is a four-star general with an international upbringing, while Jokowi comes from humble beginnings, having lived in the slums of Solo city, said foreign policy expert Teuku Rezasyah from Bandung's Padjadjaran University.
Thus, unlike Jokowi, Prabowo feels comfortable on the international stage and has been actively embarking on foreign trips.
Days after his presidency, he went to China, followed by the United States .
In just six months, Prabowo has visited more than 10 countries, with the United Arab Emirates, Türkiye, Egypt, Qatar and Jordan being the latest he visited this month.
This is a stark contrast to Jokowi, who largely stayed in Indonesia during his 10-year tenure and left foreign policy issues to then-Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi.
But the biggest surprise was that Indonesia officially joined BRICS - a bloc of developing economies increasingly seen as a counterweight to the West - at the beginning of the year, said Rezasyah.
However, the government has not really explained why it joined the bloc, he added.
'So there is an impression that we don't get much from BRICS,' said Rezasyah.
The only advantage so far from being a BRICS member is that Indonesia has joined the New Development Bank, which is a lender established by the group to mobilise resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects, he said.
But Indonesia should still be wary as it is unclear whether it could be more helpful than the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund, he added.
'These are things the public needs to know but we don't, including its term of references.'
In general, Rezasyah said that the government has also not explained the outcomes of Prabowo's various foreign trips during the past six months.
'Have they resulted in Memorandums of Understanding or agreements which have reached the implementation stage? These are things that should be known to the public.'
Rezasyah said Prabowo is projecting Indonesia as a qualified middle power by attending various summits in his first six months, such as the 11th Summit of the Developing Eight (D-8) in Egypt in December, and making statements about the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
So far, Prabowo has yet to visit all ASEAN countries, but he has visited Malaysia three times.
Malaysia is this year's rotating ASEAN chair, and Prabowo's visits are a sign that he supports the neighbouring country's chairmanship, said Rezasyah.
So far, Indonesia's economy is not doing well, said experts, and this is related to the government's policies and how it functions.
Economist Bhima Yudhistira from the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) said there have been layoffs in many sectors such as textile, most notably in textile giant Sritex, which filed for bankruptcy and shut down operations at the beginning of March.
He also noted that Indonesia's stock market plunged as much as 7 per cent on Mar 18, triggering a 30-minute trading halt not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. A journalist observes the prices of Indonesian stocks on Apr 15, 2025. (Photo: CNA/Ridhwan Siregar)
'Why was it red? Because of Danantara and concerns about the state-owned enterprises, especially the banks under Danantara, people (in Danantara) who hold dual positions,' said Bhima, referring to Indonesia's new sovereign wealth fund launched on Feb 24 and headed by Minister of Investment Rosan Perkasa Roeslani .
Danantara aims to manage the assets of all state-owned enterprises in the country worth more than US$900 billion and reinvest their dividends in commercial projects.
It has named former presidents Jokowi and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as members of its steering committee.
However, some observers are concerned about the transparency of Danantara as it is unclear how it would be audited and by who.
The government has said that the Corruption Eradication Commission and the country's audit board can audit Danantara, but so far the mechanism is not clear.
Bhima also noted that the country's tax revenue has declined in recent months due to a state spending deficit.
As of the end of March, Indonesia's tax revenue in the first three months of this year was 322.6 trillion rupiah. This is 18 per cent lower compared to the first three months last year, when the country's tax revenue was 393.91 trillion rupiah.
This has in turn affected government spending, which dropped 11.7 per cent in February.
He said he cannot recall both tax revenue and government spending dipping like this under previous presidencies, adding that the current government's debt levels have also gone up compared to the past.
'What does this all mean? It means that the economy is getting worse,' he added.
Economist Wijayanto Samirin from Jakarta's Paramadina University believes the government does not have a comprehensive, realistic plan about where the nation should be heading based on solid technocracy.
He also said there are too many ambitious and expensive programmes - such as the free meal programme and a plan to provide three million affordable homes - without experts leading them and without a concrete plan.
Prabowo's affordable homes scheme aims to provide three million houses annually for low-income earners, defined as people who earn less than eight million rupiah per month.
The programme needs 750 trillion rupiah per year, and for this year the government has set aside 40.27 trillion rupiah, with the hopes of getting the remaining funds from foreign investors.
Wijayanto noted that the previous Jokowi government had a scheme to provide one million houses for the lower-income group. Still, it did not succeed, so aiming for three million houses would be even more challenging.
He also thinks that if the government has a limited budget, the free meal programme should not target 82.9 million people but just poor people.
'The free nutritious meal programme has indeed spurred economic growth, but it also has contributed to a deficit budget because the budget for the programme is taken from the budget which was supposed to be used for other things,' said Wijayanto.
Tangerang-based mother of one Mega, 41, also thinks the free nutritious meal programme hurts the state budget.
'The programme is actually good but (only) as long as there is ample budget and (it is) not taking up the budget for other programmes,' said Mega, who only wants to be identified by her first name and works as a banker.
'It puts a huge burden on the state finances and makes investors run away. It would be better to stop it,' said Mega, who has a nine-year-old daughter.
Wijayanto added that the government's cost-cutting measures were implemented incorrectly; instead of cutting the budget at the upper level, such as ministers, the budgets related to civil servants at staff levels were cut.
He cited for instance how some ministerial posts could be reduced and this would also trim related costs such as staff needed to service these ministers.
Flip-flopping of policies such as the government's plan to implement a value-added tax rate hike to 12 per cent, which was cancelled last minute amid growing public concerns, also does not reflect well on the government and caused distrust among investors, said Wijayanto.
He said that there is a perception that the Cabinet is 'still not coherent'.
'Many ministers are unsure what to do. Thus, until now, we are still unclear what kind of initiatives some ministers have taken,' he observed.
He added that a big Cabinet makes coordination difficult and is not cost-efficient.
'Ideally, Prabowo should soon make some adjustments to the Cabinet. He could cut some posts or, and he could change some people with better performers.'
Bhima from CELIOS agreed.
It had conducted a survey of 95 journalists from 44 different organisations who covered different beats to rate how Prabowo's Cabinet ministers had fared in their first 100 days using indicators such as programme achievements, suitability of policy plans with public needs, leadership and coordination quality, budget management and policy communication.
The survey found that several ministers failed, with Minister of Human Rights Natalius Pigai scoring the lowest with -113 points, followed by Minister of Cooperatives Budi Arie Setiadi with -61 points and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia with -41 points.
'The Cabinet needs to be reshuffled and budget efficiency must start from the top level,' said Bhima.
'There must be transparency in the making of regulations, especially those which are sensitive.'
Wijayanto added that Prabowo needs to urgently change the communication style of the government and be more transparent in communicating policies.
This is particularly so given that like many countries around the world, Indonesia's economic outlook has darkened in light of the sweeping tariffs that the US has announced.
Trump has declared a 32 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indonesia before announcing a 90-day suspension, though a 10 per cent base is still in force.
Prabowo's government has tried to negotiate with the US by sending a delegation to Washington on Apr 18 led by Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto.
While the two countries have yet to come to an agreement, they agreed to hold further talks within the next 60 days.
'Trump's tariffs will impact a lot of things,' said Bhima.
'Firstly, it will affect Indonesia's export performance because with this tariff war, Indonesian textile, apparel, and footwear products will be at a disadvantage as many of the products produced here are for American international brands.
'There will also be a flood of imported goods, especially from China, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, to Indonesia.'
He said that mass layoffs will be hard to prevent and the rupiah, which already hit a historic low against the US dollar this month, could further weaken. An officer displays US dollars and Indonesian rupiah banknotes at a foreign currency exchange outlet in Jakarta. (Photo: CNA/Ridhwan Siregar)
Bhima said the impacts will be seen in the third and fourth quarters this year.
Meanwhile, Wijayanto said the current situation is a challenge and opportunity for Indonesia to improve its investment climate through deregulation and improving legal certainty, among other things.
'This is our big homework, and it must be done with or without a request from the US.'
On his part, Prabowo has said that he wants to cut back business regulations that hinder investments.
'Please tell us which ones are not well implemented. We will act immediately,' he said on Apr 8.
'Now I give a line to all the Cabinet members. First, everything must be efficient, the work must be efficient. Second, get rid of all unreasonable regulations. Make it easy. Make all (business) processes easy for entrepreneurs.'
Speaking at the same economic forum on Apr 8, chairman of the national economic council of Indonesia Luhut Pandjaitan said people should not be overly worried about the current economic situation.
'That we are alert, yes (we should be). We have handled many big cases.'
He cited how Indonesia had managed to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic a few years ago.
'This too we can solve together.' Ministers and cabinet members in military fatigues pose for photographers during a cabinet retreat at the Military Academy in Magelang, Central Java on Oct 25, 2024. (Photo: AP/Achmad Ibrahim)
As a former army general, the military's influence on Prabowo's personality and leadership is clear, said analysts.
Just a few days after the Red and White Cabinet was formed, Prabowo's newly appointed ministers had to undergo a three-day military style retreat at the Indonesian Military Academy in the mountainous region of Magelang, Central Ja va.
The military is also actively helping distribute the nutritious free meals, particularly in remote areas.
While the military is nowadays not as dominant as it was during the regime of former authoritarian president Suharto, who is Prabowo's former father-in-law, defence expert Yohanes Sulaiman from the University of Jenderal Achmad Yani in West Java said it is becoming more dominant compared to during Jokowi's tenure.
It is especially notable when contentious revisions to the country's military Bill was passed into law at the end of March, allowing more civilian posts for military officers.
The new military law also contributed to the fall of the stock exchange, said Yohanes, as investors were spooked by the protests it triggered. Thousands of people stage a protest against the newly passed military law in front of the Indonesian parliament in Jakarta on Mar 20, 2025. (Photo: CNA/Wisnu Agung Prasetyo)
Viewing the new military law from two perspectives, Yohanes said that the law is important for people in the defence sector because there are many military personnel with high ranks but no positions, which means their salary is also low.
With the new law, military officers can take up civilian posts in 14 ministries, up from 10 previously.
'So actually, there is nothing to criticise there. But, if we look at it from the point of view of civil society, it is also understandable why they are concerned because the law was made secretly, and there was no communication with the public about it. '
'The current government is simply not communicative, and this creates distrust. This is a problem,' he said.
If the military is not involved in a political setting, it should be communicated to the public, but this is not being done, said Yohanes.
Analysts said that there are also concerns that the press is under attack and that there is growing authoritarianism in the country that could threaten democracy.
They pointed to recent cases where investigative news outlet Tempo - which has been critical of Prabowo's policies - was sent a box of six rats with their heads cut off on Mar 22 and an earlier incident where a pig's head without its ears was found to be intended for a Tempo reporter.
In a rare group interview with six Indonesian editors-in-chief at the beginning of April, Prabowo said he was shocked by the Tempo incidents.
The parliament has plans to soon revise the country's criminal code and police law to provide law enforcers with more power.
If also conducted in a non-transparent way, it will cause significant upheaval like the passing of the military Bill, especially given the negative public perception of the police in general, said Yohanes.
'Prabowo needs to be firm. He needs to listen and see: What is the problem? If, for example, the problem is that investors are not confident in Danantara, he should act accordingly and dissolve it instead of making lousy comments.
'He should set aside his ego.' Indonesia Prabowo Subianto economy Politics